Horticulture & Floriculture

Congrats TAP GAP 2016 Winner Pushkar for Kaveri Seeds @ Rs 325 !….In less than 2 months it’s already up to Rs 390 with promise of recovering lost ground

Phew ! it took me quite some time to go through 101 Companies as below that were submitted as below for TAP GAP 2016

Thanks to all of  you who send in 101 Company entries by January 15,2016 & for being patient till I declared  Pushkar as the winner today ! 

My single criteria was to assess that which company had fundamental strength to give a 100% return in a tough 2016 ….I also considered if there are vested interests in the scrips who control market trades & I have opted not to go for them….You guys have given me quite a few of these 🙂

I had finally filtered it to selecting from these Five

1. Ambika Cotton
2. Avanti Feeds
3. Capital First
4.  Nirlon
5. Kaveri Seed

I have decided that one of Pushkar’s three Choices,Kaveri Seed deserves this years TAP GAP 2016 gauravblog hamper It’s already up 20% inside two months and we have 10 months to go in 2016 & I’m quite sure that many from the remaining  100 entries too will outperform & as always I promise to also reward the gauravblog hamper to  the one whose entry gains the highest % in 2016 as at closing December 31, 2016….unless it’s Pushkar again scoring on one of  his other two entries,Larsen & Toubro or Firstsource Solutions !  🙂 Kaveri Seed is a Debt Free  & Cash Rich ( Rs 345 crs at December 31,2015) dividend paying company  which has had a tough drop last year .In fact a year ago in March 2015 it was a strong Rs 1077 (52 Week High) and since then dropped to Rs 300 in January this year on the back of two consecutive poor Monsoon that lowered farm income & the Company had to write off more no cotton seed inventory ,largely maize.Q 2 FY 15 saw a bottomline loss of Rs 48 crs on account of this.Also Royalty Dispute with Monsanto remains an unresolved issue for the Industry A good Monsoon in 2016 will quickly push this Company back into Orbit….it already has got a push with Government Panel proposing a national uniform price for Bt Cotton for 2016 believed to be Rs 800 per 450 gms Bt Cotton packet,incl of trait or license fees of Rs 49.These fees are 74% less than prevailing.It is awaiting acceptance by  the Ministry of Agriculture.This should also help remove Royalty overhang.FY 15 Royalty was Rs 159 crs on Sales of Rs 1161 crs.In FY 16 for the nine months the Company has provided just Rs 37.53 crs as directed by State Governments while the actual liability as per agreement with Service Provide Monsanto is Rs 102.51 crs creating a shortfall of Rs 64.55 crs.The matter is pending in Court between National Seed Association of India & Monsanto which will first decide if Government of India indeed has a right to intervene in fixing MSP & Trait Value…If Government wins then Kaveri Seed is also entitled to get a refund of Rs 200 crs from Monsanto for excess Royalty paid till 2015.If  Monsanto triumps then Kaveri needs to pay out as of date just Rs 65 crs underprovided.It is Debt Free & has Cash Reserves of @ Rs 345 crs as on December 31,2015 ….but whoever wins it will yet be a win win for the Industry & Kaveri as there will be clarity on Pricing & Royalty….Problem is that Monsanto through it’s Indian JV with  Maharashtra based Mahyco,Mahyco Monsanto Biotech has threatened to hold back newer technologies & also re-evaluate it’s presence in India if the Government does not roll back the Plan to cut Bt Cotton Trait Value by 70%….In my view India is too big a Market for Monsanto to ignore & there will be a resolution to this issue    Another Development is a Forensic Audit ordered by SEBI in December 2015 to be conducted by CA Firm  Sarath & Associates based in Hyderabad Company has got a National Footprint with  Brand Loyalty in a high barrier industry   where it takes strong investment in R & D for seeds and a lead time of 7 to 8 years to commercial production .Q 1 April to June Quarter  in any FY is always the crucial quarter as Farmers buy seeds to sow just before Monsoon sets in.Q 1 FY 15 saw Sales of Rs 664 crs down from Rs 827 crs in Q 1 FY 14 & even lower than the Rs 736 crs in Q 1 in FY 13.FY 15 saw 8.4 m packets sold while FY 16 is expected to close under 6 m.FY 17 should see a 20% to 25% climb back. Market Cap is Rs 1158 crs at Rs 390 =>  @ One Year Sales…..Book at 31/12/2015 was @ Rs 133 on a Networth of @ Rs 920 crs Of course there is always the global resentment for increasing use of hybrid seed technology,especially Bt Cotton  & for the Monopoly of Monsanto in this and their dictating terms ….that is for another debate though Here is the List of all 101 Entries and how they have performed till date from your recommended price or  January 15,2016 closing taken if lower

Sr No.	Scrip Name	CMP (Rs)	Inv. Price (Rs)	% Change
1	Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd	150.4	212.2	-29
2	Alicon Castalloy Limited	267.1	302.4	-12
3	Ambika Cotton Mills Ltd	838.25	816.25	3
4	Aptech Ltd	56.8	61.5	-8
5	Arrow Coated Products Ltd	484	683.75	-29
6	Arrow Textiles Ltd	37.5	49.5	-24
7	Associated Alcohols and Breweries Ltd	176.3	183.3	-4
8	Aurobindo Pharma Ltd	701.5	814.75	-14
9	Avanti Feeds Ltd	402.5	383.5	5
10	Bambino Agro Industries Ltd (2)	97.95	127	-23
11	Batliboi Ltd	20.5	24	-15
12	Bhandari Hosiery Exports Ltd*	5.42	4.77	14
13	Bhilwara Spinners Ltd	14.25	14.6	-2
14	Binny Ltd	97	101	-4
15	Biofil Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals Ltd	6.42	11.35	-43
16	Biopac India Corporation Ltd	13.65	17.85	-24
17	Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances Ltd	186.3	241.1	-23
18	Capital First Ltd	375.85	381.55	-1
19	Capri Global Capital Limited	143	183	-22
20	Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd	235.1	254.3	-8
21	LT FOODS LTD	200	238.1	-16
22	Deccan Gold Mines Ltd	35.15	35.5	-1
23	Donear Industries Ltd	24.9	28.9	-14
24	Ester Industries Ltd	45.35	65.25	-30
25	Future Consumer Enterprise Limited	21.4	21.8	-2
26	Force Motors Ltd	2628	2,658.00	-1
27	First Source Solutions Ltd	34.45	35	-2
28	Gujarat Borosil Ltd	76.8	70.85	8
29	Shree Hanuman Sugar & Industries Ltd	1.11	1.21	-8
30	Heritage Foods Limited	527	526.5	–
31	Himachal Futuristic Communications Ltd	17.7	19.1	-7
32	Hitachi Home and Life Solutions (India) Ltd	1165	1,087.20	7
33	IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd	73.45	80.05	-8
34	Indian Acrylics Ltd	11.76	10.54	12
35	Inox Wind Ltd	292.6	317.7	-8
36	Ion Exchange India Ltd	283	377.7	-25
37	Intrasoft Technologies Ltd	322.1	327.4	-2
38	IVP	88	102.5	-14
39	Jagran Prakashan Ltd	155.65	155.25	0
40	JK Paper Ltd	42.95	45.95	-7
41	JLA Infraville Shoppers Ltd	11.58	15.99	-28
42	Kama Holdings	1250	1,345.75	-7
43	Kaya Ltd	866	1,041.75	-17
44	Kisan Mouldings Ltd	19.45	21.3	-9
45	Kitex Garments Ltd	412.7	583.2	-29
46	Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd	667.35	675.95	-1
47	Kaveri Seed Company Ltd	390.15	324.75	20
48	Kwality Ltd	102.45	108.4	-5
49	Lakshmi Overseas Industries Ltd	15	17.1	-12
50	Lincoln Pharmaceuticals Lyd	163.5	223.9	-27
51	Lanco Infratech Ltd	5.44	6.25	-13
52	Larsen and Toubro Ltd	1193.75	1,106.00	8
53	Manpasand Beverages Ltd	436	448.5	-3
54	Max Financial Services Ltd	320.5	476	-33
55	MCX Ltd	840.05	832.05	1
56	Melstar Information Technologies Ltd	6.27	8.14	-23
57	MIC Electronics Ltd	19.65	20.45	-4
58	Morepen Laboratories Ltd	27.75	28.2	-2
59	MPS Ltd	665	716	-7
60	Majestic Research Services and Solutions Ltd	65.5	76.3	-14
61	Multibase India Ltd	203	228.3	-11
62	Natural Capsules Ltd	92	133.2	-31
63	NCL Industries Ltd	96.2	120	-20
64	Nirlon Ltd	192	177.4	8
65	Odyssey Technologies Ltd	29.5	41.05	-28
66	Pincon Spirit Ltd	127.8	114.4	12
67	Radix Industries (India) Ltd	152	205	-26
68	Rei Agro Ltd	0.53	0.66	-20
69	Repco Home Finance Ltd	587.9	606.15	-3
70	Revathi Equipment Ltd	560	684.5	-18
71	Ricoh India Ltd	598.25	693	-14
72	Rossell India Ltd	95	116.8	-19
73	Reliance Power Ltd	46.7	51.05	-9
74	Rattan India Power Ltd	10.35	10.57	-2
75	Sanjivani Paranteral Ltd	33	57	-42
76	Sankhya Infotech Ltd	26.25	37.9	-31
77	SKM Egg Products Ltd	113.85	150	-24
78	Srikalahasthi Pipes Limited	214.1	239.2	-10
79	SSPDL Ltd	48.55	58.45	-17
80	Stylam Industries Ltd	169.8	188.2	-10
81	Subex Ltd	9.38	10.3	-9
82	Sunil Healthcare Ltd	96.3	112.8	-15
83	Surana Solar Ltd	24	27.8	-14
84	Syncom Healthcare Ltd	6.25	10.72	-42
85	Taneja Aerospace & Aviation Ltd	56.8	62.45	-9
86	Tara Jewels Ltd	46.3	43.65	6
87	Tide Water Oil (India) Ltd	25099	25,365	-1
88	Technocraft Industries (India) Ltd	199	212.8	-6
89	Trigyn Technologies Ltd	63	81.4	-23
90	Trilogic Digital Media Ltd	16.75	27.4	-39
91	TV18 Broadcast Ltd	38.8	41.15	-6
92	Udaipur Cement Works Ltd	9.86	11.51	-14
93	Uflex Ltd	149.4	156.05	-4
94	Ujaas Energy Ltd	23.95	21.3	12
95	UV Boards Ltd	11.46	21.9	-48
96	Vakranjee	224.75	165.5	36
97	Vinati Organis	394.7	421.2	-6
98	Virinchi Ltd	36.75	44.9	-18
99	Waterbase Ltd	77.65	84.25	-8
100	Zen Technologies	70.1	94.8	-26
101	Zydus Wellness Ltd	700.75	800.45	-12
*Adjusted for stock split

Once again  ~ Well Done Pushkar  for Kaveri Seed ! ~ I’ve gone with this !

 Your gauravblog hamper will soon be on it’s way to you

Cheers !

Disclaimer : Don’t have any direct or indirect interest or holding in Kaveri Seed as of date