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A Lion’s eye on the Bulls and Bears

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Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop !

Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop yesterday !

Seems to get bigger & better every time !

Did the first one on August 8,2015 and had blogged on it  as linked below

Interesting Interaction at the NSE Equity Fundamental Training Workshop

Sunday, August 16th, 2015

Did this one too on “Interpretation of Financial Statements for Stock Analysis” under NSE’s Rapid Series at their NSE BKC Complex

@ 30 Participants,both genders aged 22 to 58 from leading Broking Firms,Corporates,Banks and even Individuals who had come on dot and stayed till 8 pm ! expecting to learn how to read financial statements and  market dynamics to assess risks and opportunities in Indian Equities

Common Question right from Manish Shah,who introduced himself  to me in the lift going up to the Class ” How are the Markets Looking “? ~ “Where will the Sensex & Nifty head in the short term”?

Had taken a Bull along ! really !…a smaller version of the Wall Street one….told the class I love four animals…Elephants (Lord Ganesha),Lions (My Zodiac Sign),Tortoise(Good Luck & of course Bulls (I’m always one!)….and you’ll always find them on my office desk !…in fact four bulls of various sizes !…and clients know my market view on simply seeing how the bulls are placed !…if facing them straight up  (↑)  as they sit across me,I’m very bullish…if slanted ( ⁄ )towards them,I’m bullish…slant inclination reveals how much !….if a horizontal view (↔ ) then indicates market will remain flat to rangebound and if the bulls face me vertically (↓ ) I’m bearish !….and slant facing me shows intensity of being bearish !

That got a few knowing laughs from the participants and set off the mood for the Workshop with humour being interspersed right through

Interacted on the Sensex Dynamics right from base year 1978 and in the last 20 years from November 1,1995 to October 30,2015 when despite nearly half of the @ 4850 trading days saw the Sensex close negatively the Sensex ran up over 650% !…but is that enough!…..the Opportunities & Threats that were clearly visible during the years right from 1991 when Modern Reforms set in to 2001 when Markets had bottomed  out on the ICE Age Melting to the Sharp drop in Interest rates from 14% to 7% in and around 2004 to post Lehman 2008 levels of 8000 in October 2008 and March 2009….showed them from current Sensex of 26657 how to assess fundamentally where we could be heading and the risks associated….discussed Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing and therefore the need for Fundamental Analysis and therefore the need to Interpret Financials & therefore the need to assess Value vs Price  & therefore this Workshop  ! read more

Times of India make a gross error in headline business article on mid caps erosion that concludes that Orient Paper eroded over 90%

Dont Expect a leading Newspaper like Times of India to make this gross mistake !

In a Business Headline Article on Page 23 of todays edition titled Mid-caps see up to 90% value erosion Partha Sinha has not done his homework and therefore has erred horribly in concluding that Orient Paper has seen the worst mid cap erosion from Rs 72.50 to Rs 7.50

~ the fact is that Orient Paper closed at Rs 72.60 on BSE on March 6,2013 and the next day from March 7,2013 it was quoted at @ Rs 14 and Rs 15 ex- free entitlement for shares in the demerged Orient Cement (record date was March 9,2013) which should  be listed in the coming months at  around Rs 50 to Rs 60 + ~ The Actual Fall in Orient Paper has been from Rs 15 to Rs 7.50  largely as lot of shareholders have sold the shares ex entitlement as now the major business and assets are in the demerged Cement Company

Perhaps I should resume writing for the Times group again ~ did for Economic Times years ago….

Recommended AP Paper at Rs 160 to Rs 190 in January 2012 ~ At Rs 318 you’ve got a near 100% absolute gains inside six months in a volatile market !

Recommended AP Paper at Rs 160 to Rs 190 in January 2012 ~ At Rs 318,you’ve got a near  100% absolute gains inside six months in a volatile market ! where the Sensex has as of date given 10% gains in 2012 from 1550 levels to 17000 levels

To be honest Rs 300+  was a target of mine only in 2013 and beyond and this Selection  would not suit all Risk Profiles ~ So those who don’t have it in their Portfolios don’t rue the fact ~ The 100% surge inside five to six months has surprised me

Those who risked it have gained ~ but not before some apprehension for it had reacted sharply in January 2012 itself from Rs 190+ levels to Rs 150 before recovering and  moving strongly past Rs 300

2011 was a bad and put off year for Markets and in late 2010 and early 2011 I had strongly recommended tactical sizeable  reallocation from Equity to Debt ~ while at end 2011 I saw some potential in really beaten down stocks to stage a recovery in 2012 ,the risks associated with such controversial stocks like Reliance Com , India Bulls Real Estate and IFCI  and even AP Paper could not be understated ~ All surged quickly in January itself and in the first half of February and gains were booked quickly too ~ on hindsight a wise move as share prices reacted to reverse some or all of the gains ~ However  A P Paper has sustained the surge and is currently strong at Rs 318

Those who want to professionally connect with me if they see added value in doing  so and for fundamental advise on their Portfolios and/or fresh investments in Equity can email me at [email protected] or [email protected] providing me with details (scrip,qty,cost,current value) or just aggregate current value of their Equity portfolio and fresh funds available for Equities and we can take it from there 

After gauging your Risk Profile there are a few Potential Winners we can position you in for the second half of 2012 and 2013

Cheers !



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