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“In India, companies may fall sick, but promoters rarely do!”

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HCL Info up 12% to @ Rs 51 with super volumes~Will BSE & NSE ask Why again?

HCL Infosystems Ltd up 12% to @ Rs 51 with super volumes ~ Will BSE & NSE ask Why again?

Just under a fortnight ago on September 22,2016 HCL Info opened at @ Rs 42 & surged to Rs 48 before settling at Rs 47 on huge above average volumes with BSE clocking over 42 lakh shares and NSE  trading near 1.63 cr shares

BSE & NSE had asked the Company to Clarify on whether there was any reason for this surge in Volumes & Share Price

Interestingly the Company replied instantly that “The increase in volume seems speculative in nature”   

The Delivery % was just under 20

The Share Price then slid last week back to Rs under 43

Today  BSE  & NSE clocked even more super volumes exceeding 45+ lakh & 1.84+ cr  shares respectively with Share Price shooting up 12% to close just under Rs 51

What’s Happening? Will the Exchanges in 13 days yet again ask the Company for clarification for today’s surge too & will the company reply the same that it’s seems to be speculative & will thus the share price slide back ?

52 Week H/L is Rs 66.75/30 & Market Cap is Rs 1135 crs

The Company is part of the Shiv Nadar HCL Tech Group & has undergone a Scheme of Arrangement effective January 1,2013.It has 14 unlisted subsidiaries including eight step down & one jv associate and has suffered losses in the past three financial periods which even witnessed declining topline with the last dividend being paid for FY 12.Consolidated Networth on March 31,2016 declined to Rs 1008 crs with Equity (FV Rs 2) at Rs 44.58 crs  of which Rs 596 crs in reflected in Goodwill on Consolidation.There are no Non Current Investments in Consolidated Accounts.Standalone shows these at Rs 972 crs in six unquoted subsidiaries after providing for diminution (Original Investments Cost was Rs 1568 crs).Short Term & Long Term Borrowings,about evenly split at March 31,2016 aggregated 996 crs.Book Value at year end March 31,2016 was Rs 45

The Business Model is of Four Market Driven Business Units housing nine Lines of Business over Distribution,Services,Learning & Hardware Products & Solutions & the Company states in it’s FY 16 Annual Report that it will be their Core Enterprises Business of Distribution & Services that will be the engine for the next level of growth.Do remember that the Company has been contracted for UIDAI & the milestone of over 100 crs Aadhaars has been crossed.India has a population of over 125 crs.Their System Integration Business has seen many of the defence projects move towards commercial conclusion read more

Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop !

Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop yesterday !

Seems to get bigger & better every time !

Did the first one on August 8,2015 and had blogged on it  as linked below

Interesting Interaction at the NSE Equity Fundamental Training Workshop

Sunday, August 16th, 2015

Did this one too on “Interpretation of Financial Statements for Stock Analysis” under NSE’s Rapid Series at their NSE BKC Complex

@ 30 Participants,both genders aged 22 to 58 from leading Broking Firms,Corporates,Banks and even Individuals who had come on dot and stayed till 8 pm ! expecting to learn how to read financial statements and  market dynamics to assess risks and opportunities in Indian Equities

Common Question right from Manish Shah,who introduced himself  to me in the lift going up to the Class ” How are the Markets Looking “? ~ “Where will the Sensex & Nifty head in the short term”?

Had taken a Bull along ! really !…a smaller version of the Wall Street one….told the class I love four animals…Elephants (Lord Ganesha),Lions (My Zodiac Sign),Tortoise(Good Luck & of course Bulls (I’m always one!)….and you’ll always find them on my office desk !…in fact four bulls of various sizes !…and clients know my market view on simply seeing how the bulls are placed !…if facing them straight up  (↑)  as they sit across me,I’m very bullish…if slanted ( ⁄ )towards them,I’m bullish…slant inclination reveals how much !….if a horizontal view (↔ ) then indicates market will remain flat to rangebound and if the bulls face me vertically (↓ ) I’m bearish !….and slant facing me shows intensity of being bearish !

That got a few knowing laughs from the participants and set off the mood for the Workshop with humour being interspersed right through

Interacted on the Sensex Dynamics right from base year 1978 and in the last 20 years from November 1,1995 to October 30,2015 when despite nearly half of the @ 4850 trading days saw the Sensex close negatively the Sensex ran up over 650% !…but is that enough!…..the Opportunities & Threats that were clearly visible during the years right from 1991 when Modern Reforms set in to 2001 when Markets had bottomed  out on the ICE Age Melting to the Sharp drop in Interest rates from 14% to 7% in and around 2004 to post Lehman 2008 levels of 8000 in October 2008 and March 2009….showed them from current Sensex of 26657 how to assess fundamentally where we could be heading and the risks associated….discussed Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing and therefore the need for Fundamental Analysis and therefore the need to Interpret Financials & therefore the need to assess Value vs Price  & therefore this Workshop  ! read more

1 APPLE = 10 RELIANCE as APPLE crosses a Market Cap of US $ 500 Billion !

Apple has crossed Market Cap of US $ 500 Billion…only the fifth company in history to do so….Microsoft and Cisco have been there only to reverse back down

……so 4 Apples make India’s GDP…or 1 Apple= 10 Reliance !

…and 1 Apple is more than the GDP of most nations on Planet Earth

…and Apple is just 15 times Trailing Earnings with IPad 3,IPhone 5 and ITv Innovations being launched soon…and existing products like Macs hold just 10% of worldwide PC Sales while iPhones hold just upto 20% of world market share….

….so will Apple cross US $ One Trillion and double from the US $ 543 Levels it currently trades at !?…the market is divided on this,more so as Steve Jobs is no longer on this Planet to take Apple to greater heights and patriotic Americans are getting increasingly critical of Apple for not bringing jobs back to USA and manufacturing it’s products in China and other South East Asian Countries to maintain global competitive pricing advantage

….much as Indian markets are divided on Reliance !….Today Reliance closed at Rs 810 giving a Market Cap of Rs 265367 crs or just above US $ 53 Billion

So should a High NetWorth Indian with a Global Portfolio lean towards Innovative  Apple of USA or rely on Reliance in India to power his portfolio ahead ! ?

Maybe Apple needs to diversify !…in the mid 1990s Apple was just about surviving….Maybe it can buy out India’s largest Market Cap Company,Reliance in such a strategy !

Just a Thought !

Am biting into a lusciously red Apple while I blog this !…and it’s not Indian !

Cheers !


Global Tensions Pushing our Sensex down…Don’t overestimate the Mini Meltdown or any accompanying Panic

India is well positioned….and in many major ways arguably in a completely different Queque…so don’t overestimate any mini meltdown or accompanying panic on global cues in our Sensex or Nifty….maybe new long positions may not be forthcoming but there should not be any serious shorts even though we see a 400 + correction in the Sensex today to 19500 levels

…..but the Ireland Bailout expected at @ US $ 100 Billion,mixed views on China’s economy  and the QE2 Measures by USA and right now the direct military provocation by North Korea against it’s neighbour South Korea clearly is spooking World markets and India is part of this….so we will be affected and pushed….but even if you argue we are in the same Queque,we are way behind….the upfront tormented Countries,like USA,Spain,Greece,Ireland,UK and Portugal and troubled hotspots like the Koreas will have a direct impact…being way behind,our Sensex will merely be pushed by the impact upfront…ofcourse we have our own issues like 2G Telecom Scam political imbroglio to deal with….but India is on the strong upmove for the next few decades…we are already living this…adds conviction to this belief…don’t let anyone shake you from this 

… don’t panic….two days ago I advised to stay away….no speculation and no trading…. and go smell the grass…..any significant correction will offer opportunities to buy cheaper for the long term….don’t get spooked by the increasing volatility…you have to live with this……Record FII Inflows actually lifted our Sensex back to 21k levels….a few billion dollar outflows coupled with World Economic and political tensions  will correct the Sensex….that is what is happening

….so don’t try second guessing where the Sensex will end today or tomorrow !…even the Sensex itself does not know !…..traders and speculators need to do this for they hold short or long positions to flip quickly…….Increasing Volatility makes this a risky and dangerous exercise best avoided till some stability or firm trend is seen  

Our Sensex ,currently at 19500 levels is headed towards 30000 in the next few years…but may revert back to a 16000-18000 range before continuing the march upwards

I’m observing a whole lots of specific stocks on my horizon also reacting….splendid….lower price levels will lower risk levels when bought into….will make my workshop on Equity Portfolio Structuring at BSE Training Institute this Friday and Saturday that much more fun…do come…blogged seperately on this earlier today    read more

Intel launches New Chips…delay your purchase of Computers for a month and Check out HCL Info at Rs 160 and Zenith Computers at Rs 27…Investing Theme being Computer Scrips

Intel has advertised today the launch of new Chips….i3,i5 and i7

Currently Computers and Laptops and Netbooks are powered by Intel Core 2 Duo or an Atom processor

By month end we can expect all the major Computer Brands to launch Computers with the New Chips…so delay your purchase till then….you’ll get the new chips or some fabulous deals on the Computers with the earlier Chips

The New series of Chips has the following advantages

  • nearly doubles the processing power
  • shrinks the size of Components inside the Chip by nearly 30% thereby reducing the chip size,power consumption and heat emission
  • Transistors or Switches are 32 nanometer in size compared to the current 45 nanometer….a nanometer is one billionth of a meter
  • Each New Chip will hold 440 million switches against the current 290 million 
  • The Memory and Graphic Controllers,which were earlier housed in chips adjacent to the main processor,will now be withing the Main Chip itself
  • The shrinkage in size of Components allows the Laptop to be slimmer by another Inch
  • The operating speeds will be maintained within 1 to 3.7 gigahertz
  • There will be no immediate price impact as the New Series are priced more or less at same levels as the Core 2 Duo Processor,especially for desktops…For the New Chips For Laptops the price is a little higher…A 32 nanometer i3 Chip laptop will be priced at Rs 35000 
  • The Laptop Chip’s Clock Speed will be 2.1 GHz….This speed is turbo boosted by 10% to 110% in the i5 Series chips which will cost Rs 2300 more than the i3 series…Both i3 and i5 laptop chips will consume 35 Watts while the high end i7 will consume 18 to 35 watts 
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