A Lion’s eye on the Bulls and Bears
“In India, companies may fall sick, but promoters rarely do!”
Shree Ganesh Jewellery~Suckered All from Rs 260 to Rs 26!
Have warned on this Blog of this Deliberate Destroyer in 2010 on Listing at Rs 260 and yet again in 2012 at Rs 91
Have just posted it in detail on the SCRIP TEASE Module on www.jsalphaa.com after being provoked by an Economic Times article yesterday on CDR being debated by the Bankers
All Links to my earlier blogs and the ET Article yesterday are in the above post
Union Budget 2013 ~ India is a BLESSsed Economy…
Enjoyed on the Budget Day Evening itself Feb 28,2013 addressing and interacting with a well informed audience of 400 on the Union Budget 2013 ~ on how the Government plans to make Money to tackle deficits and how we can ! ~ plan to host a few thoughts of my presentation on the company website www.jsalphaa.com and on this blog ~ covered how FM has cleverly and conveniently balanced the budget ~ also covered the Forward Trends in Equities & Indices & Gold & Exchange Rate & how Debts & Deficits are forcing Disinvestments & how the malaise continues on our exchanges and it will be some time before the retail investor comes back,if at all ~ spoke on Liquidity,Sentiment,Momentum and Valuation
🙂 Felt more like a Stand Up Comedian as the audience were in splits on some of the budget and stock market situations I presented…
Gold ~ Will it go some more Lower before it again goes much Higher ?
This is a Million Dollar Question that can make you a Million Dollars !
I took you on gold run from US $ 500/oz levels from 2005/6 to US $ 1900 last year just short of my second long term target of US $ 2000 ~ the first of US $ 1000 was breached in 2009
Gold is now US $ 1581 an ounce after a golden ten year run
Gold clearly thrived as USA kept it’s US $ printing press working overtime for years to fund it’s deficits ~ Look at this revealing chart below ~ It shows the direct co-relation between the increasing supply of the US $ through new currency printing in trillions of Dollars in the last six to seven years and the increasing price of Gold
USA is clearly on a severe back foot on the Economic Front threatened with Huge Debt and Deficits and is currently in a Long Term and Painful Deleveraging Mode ~ The Road through Quantitative Easing has meant excessive supply of Funds to buy up Bonds ~ The Currency Printing Press has been working 24 hours for several years now ~ the Price of Gold has risen in direct co- relation to this increase in Money Supply
Offence is the Best Form of Defence seems to be USA’s Response and it is becoming increasingly clear that it has implemented a multi pronged aggressive media propaganda into advanced play ~ both ,on the economic and on the political front
Check this multi pronged and well planned Pointing Fingers by USA with the use of a powerful US Media
USA President Obama openly now points fingers at India for not opening out FDI USA continues to scream publicly at China for keeping it’s Yuan deliberately undervalued ~ probably actually revelling in having to pay off a devalued dollar debt in the future when US $ begins to reverse again after it’s recent surge …and an even more serious accusation that USA is actually supporting what they term as ‘Arab Spring’ and funding and arming Criminal gangs and Rebels to destabilise Arab Regimes or even directly involving Military or NATO Intervention in these Arab Nations ~ The Iraq Invasion ~ The Fall of Libya ~ and now Syria are all prime instances ~ Seema Mustafa in her column in DNA todayasserts that it is less for ushering in Democracy in these Islamic States and more for sanitising the Arab Region for their ally, Israel
The US $ may continue to hold and even strengthen a little more over the next few months as US President Elections come closer in November 2012,before it again begins to shows it’s inherent weakness during the painful deleveraging process and the continuing excessive printing of Currency to finance Deficits
Gold may therefore continue to hold too or even seek a lower level to US $ 1400/oz in the short term before it resumes it’s march back up to show it’s inherent strength
Keeping an eye on 2015,stay invested in Gold ~ Buy some more on any significant fall ~ because if Nouriel Roubini’s ‘Perfect Storm’ 2013 scenario plays out,you’ll reap a bonanza in Gold even sooner ~ Roubini’s betting on a worsening Eurozone,China growth ebbing,USA Recovery weakening and Military Conflict involving Iran all climaxing into a ‘Perfect Storm’ next year in 2013
FY 12 Performance ~ An Easy First Impression to Have ~ ‘Sell Your Wife & Buy the Stock ! ‘
One Can actually Buy this Full Company Out at just a little over One Year Profits ! as Market cap is just Rs 550 crs and FY 12 Consolidated PAT was Rs 461 crs !
Incredulous Consolidated Results !….Yet Shree Ganesh Jewellery is @ just Rs 91
Operating Income ~ Rs 10121 crs
Market Cap ~ Rs 550 crs
Networth ~ Rs 1569 crs
Equity ~ Rs 60.68 crs (FV Rs 10) with 70% held by the Promoters ~ Kolkatta based Parekh Brothers
Book Value ~ Rs 259 per share => PBV of just 0.35 !
PAT ~ Rs 461 crs ~ Nearly all of it from Jewellery Business as Power Business yet to take off
EPS ~ Rs 76 => PE of just 1.2 !
Dividend ~ 60% or Rs 6 per share => Yield of 6.6%!
Incredulous !?
Not Quite if you Check out some Company, Investor and Price Behaviour History….Clearly the Markets simply don’t trust this Company and it’s Financials
Two Years ago when the Company came out with an IPO at Rs 260,there were some crazy Investor Behaviour and Price Trends on Listing with the Share Price collapsing to Rs 160 levels and a Standard Chartered FII Fund selling out first day itself at a huge loss !…I had blogged on this
Monday, April 12th, 2010
What’s Happening Here !?…..Auditors Chaturvedi and Partners have given a Clean Chit to the Company but Methinks SEBI and the Exchanges too need to give it one too if there is nothing more than what meets the Eye !
I reiterate ! ~ How can one be able to Buy this Company out at just One year profits !?
Am I just unnecessarily creating a racket about some racket ! ?….should not Shree Ganesh Jewellery be a Multibagger Stock with Share Price targets over Rs 300 from just Rs 91 today !?
You Tell Me !
SEBI had tightened IPO Listing Rules in January 2012 to curb first days price volatility and manipulation by insiders….these are now implemented….IPO Issues below Rs 250 crs will be listed on only Delivery basis for the first ten days after listing and will have 5% tight circuit breakers on an equilibrium price discovered in a one hour pre auction window from 9 am to 10 am
Clearly this has affected Volumes on listing
Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri’s late April 2012 IPO to raise Rs 200 crs offered for 16.67 million shares at Rs 120…. just about got subscribed 1.15 times
It got listed on BSE in ‘T’ Category and NSE with circuit breakers of a shade over Rs 109 on the lower side and just under Rs 121 on the upper side…The volumes on both exchanges were low at @ 1.2 Million shares each with the average traded Price at @ Rs 112….the Share closed at Rs 111 without hitting circuits either on up or downside…clearly controlled to do so …next 10 days will be only delivery based trades with 100% upfront margin
Shrikant Zaveri and Family own 74.17% of the Equity of @ Rs 67 crs…FIIs hold 11.85%….Market Cap is just below Rs 750 crs
My sense is that the share price may seek lower levels and slip below Rs 100 as IPO Pricing of Rs 120 was on the higher side at Earnings Multiples of 12 against 5 to 8 for other Jewellers….PAT has shown a non linear trend over the years…probably to facilitate an IPO at such a pricing of Rs 120….PAT of @ Rs 7.5 crs in FY 2007 and FY 2008 moved to just over Rs 10 crs in FY 2009 and then jumped to @ Rs 17 crs in FY 2010…FY 2011 saw it zoom to Rs 40 crs and for the nine months at December 31,2011 it was Rs 50 crs
….clearly a lack ‘lustre’ listing that should remain lack ‘lustre’
Performance of the BSE Sector Indices in 2011/12 and to date is quite Interesting ….What provoked this post is Sameer’s counter argument in my earlier post…he is bullish in the short term,citing the favourable upmoves in the Pharma,Cement and Auto Sectors…I’m looking at the Bigger Picture and I’m not so excited really as Macros are clearly playing up and this Government is unlikely to push big ticket reforms…we need to await 2014 General Elections,which I fear may yet again through up a fractured verdict…but I hope with a more reform friendly and decisive coalition !
Have a Look at the Performance of the BSE Sector Indices in 2011/12 and to date…Quite Interesting…The Reds & Greens signal fall or rise/holding up from over a year ago
The Alltime High & Low Columns are quite revealing
PERFORMANCE OF BSE SECTOR INDICES AS ON APRIL 26,2012
|
Sector |
Valuation |
Current Close April 26,2012 |
A Month Ago |
A Year Ago |
52 Week |
All Time |
||||||
|
% Mkt Cap |
PE |
PBV |
Index |
% |
Index |
% |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
||
|
IT |
9 |
19.4 |
6 |
5509 |
6011 |
(8.4) |
6244 |
(11.8) |
6361 |
4639 |
8678 Feb 2000 |
835 Sept 2001 |
|
Teck |
12.6 |
23.4 |
3.5 |
3239 |
3516 |
(7.9) |
3764 |
(13.9) |
3799 |
2982 |
4188 Oct 2007 |
547 Sept 2001 |
|
FMCG |
7 |
35 |
14 |
4806 |
4386 |
9.6 |
3739 |
28.5 |
4834 |
3562 |
4834 April 2012 |
706 April 2003 |
|
Consumer Durables |
0.7 |
20 |
2.7 |
6509 |
6377 |
2.1 |
6491 |
– |
7097 |
5063 |
7370 Nov 2010 |
414 Sept 2001 |
|
Metals |
9.4 |
14 |
2.4 |
10981 |
10978 |
– |
16723 |
(34.3) |
16723 |
9191 |
20495 Jan 2008 |
3807 Oct 2008 |
|
Oil & Gas |
11.7 |
16.9 |
1.8 |
7896 |
7910 |
– |
10093 |
(21.8) |
10102 |
7495 |
14269 Jan 2008 |
2529 Aug 2004 |
|
Capital Goods |
3.8 |
15.9 |
3.1 |
9424 |
9933 |
(5.1) |
13710 |
(31.3) |
14108 |
7807 |
21021 Nov 2007 |
481 Sept 2001 |
|
HealthCare |
4.4 |
57 |
4.4 |
6747 |
6391 |
5.6 |
6191 |
9 |
6879 |
5757 |
6879 April 2012 |
985 April 2001 |
|
Bankex |
9.8 |
13.3 |
2.1 |
11666 |
11571 |
– |
13520 |
(13.7) |
13501 |
8947 |
15108 Nov 2010 |
1614 June 2003 |
|
PSU |
25.7 |
13.8 |
2 |
7160 |
7235 |
– |
9169 |
(21.9) |
9254 |
6204 |
11205 Jan 2008 |
734 Sept 2001 |
|
Auto |
4.9 |
22 |
4.8 |
10745 |
9861 |
0.1 |
9678 |
11 |
10829 |
7814 |
10829 April 2012 |
2128 Dec 2008
|
|
Realty |
1.2 |
20.9 |
1.4 |
1677 |
1726 |
(2.8) |
2346 |
(28.5) |
2311 |
1348 |
13848 Jan 2008 |
1298 March 2009 |
|
Power |
7.2 |
15.3 |
2 |
1991 |
2082 |
(4.4) |
2724 |
(26.9) |
2714 |
1725 |
4929 Jan 2008 |
1275 Oct 2008 |