GauravBlog Logo

A Lion’s eye on the Bulls and Bears

“In India, companies may fall sick, but promoters rarely do!”

Gaurav's Blog


Warren Buffett

Saturday Equity Workshop~You Guys Rocked! Now Go Rock the Markets!

Saturday,February 17,2018  Fundamental Value Vs Price Equity Workshop in Mumbai

You Guys Rocked! Now Go Rock the Markets! ~ for what’s Academics & Theory without Action & Application

Full House with all pretty knowledgeable & many market veterans from Mumbai,Dubai,Sangli,Kolhapur,Hyderabad,Thrissur & Gokak~from small Investors to High Networth ~from Broking,Corporate,PSU,MNC Banks,MNC IT companies & FPI fraternity too…from a confident 25 year old to a 60 year old who has seen it all & wants to see some more !

Great Interaction literally from 9 am to 9 pm ! & the Bulls remained alive & kicking on & around the Conference Room table throughout !

We covered them all & more!~Valuing on Assets & Earnings & assessing against Market Price ! ~ Demergers  & Delistings  & Rights &  Non Linear Earnings & Holdings & Acquisitions & New Parentage & Turnarounds & Changing Dynamics in Sectors & Themes like in PSU Banks again! & the GST Impact…& of course hopelessly hanging on to Wealth Destroyers & even averaging in them over the years !

Where are the Sensex & Nifty headed in the coming years…should we be bothered about them & other Macros or simply continue focusing bottom up on specific selections for serious wealth creation…Passive or Active Investing…we discussed all

We covered  Investor Gurus Warren Buffett & Peter Lynch & Investor Mistakes of Confirmation Bias,Anchoring & Improper Framing among others…how Multi disciplinary thinking evolves ones into a better person & investor

Corporate Tambola too was fun with prizes for three full houses & instant chocolates to those who correctly guessed the companies…A Special Praise for Hemal,who had enquired if this workshop would be for Beginners,& turned out guessing many companies !

Some other prizes too for some fabulous answers…like the hilarious one from Daya that I should seek another session,this time one to one ,with the pretty girl who had emailed me a query to clear a concept which was not a financial one…she had asked my views on whether Marriage was necessary in modern times & should not ‘live in’ be good enough ! Daya’s response brought the house down!

Chowdhary from ONGC lucidly explained his views on ONGC going forward

Vijay Desai,a clear market veteran, won  for being the best participant with some great interaction right throughout read more

3 Seats Left ! ~ Sat Feb 17 2018 Mumbai Funda Eq Workshop

3 Seats Left ! ~ Sat Feb 17 2018 Mumbai Funda Eq Workshop

Reserve yours now =>

Fundamental MasterClass in Mumbai Stock Selection ~ Value Vs Price – 2018 ~ Markets Major & Mature ~ Sensex 36000 ~ Taking Stock

Saturday, February 17, 2018

At the previous Funda workshops in June & August 2017  we thread-bared Bombay Dyeing at Rs 70 to assess Value Vs Price in the price range of Rs 70 to Rs 85 & participants got excited to lap it up….in months it raced away to Rs 300 & now stands at Rs 250…of course Markets have been kind too…we had covered over 50 companies across sectors like Yuken,Rama Steel & Grauer on Valuation through Assets & Earnings & Situational Studies like M & A, Delisting & Turnarounds & the outcomes have been quite enjoyed by most participants as the feedback shows……. for what’s Academics & Theory without Action & Application

As Usual there’s already a good mix of participants from retail to HNWI & from FPIs, broking houses,PSUs  & MNC Banks….coming even from overseas & outstation for this Mumbai Workshop

Do try & make it….will be fun interacting fun-da-mentally with all of you on Re-positioning & Reinvestment Risks & on Corporate Governance & Controversies as we play the Corporate Tambola and exercise other Mind Gums on the Magic of Compounding & the holding of Convictions of Fundamental Selections through even steep market corrections especially if fully invested !

When I had announced this workshop just a fortnight ago the Sensex was at a record 36000+ and featured in the Workshop Title…In days since then following a global correction and arguably an uninspiring Union Budget that re-introduced Long Terms Capital Gains Tax the Sensex fell sharply below 34000 with many non large caps taking a hit of even 30 % with Vakrangee decimating over 50% from over Rs 500 to under Rs 200 on Corporate Governance issues

Even Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway’s Equity Portfolio has taken a US $ 11.2 billion hit ~ of course he’s not bothered ~ should you be when closer home we continue to be suckers in Company Price Run Ups where Quality is clearly suspect & where our PSU Banks continue to reel under the weight of NPAs with SBI announcing a huge Q 3 Loss,the first in many quarters, because of this ? ~ Capitalisation & Consolidation process is on  ~ are PSU Banks potential wealth creators going forward?

What Now ! ?

See You Sat

Cheers !

3 Seats left!Sat 5/8 Mum Stock Select Prog

Invest this Saturday August 5,2017 with me in the Mumbai Full Day Fundamental Equity Stock Selection Workshop.Only 3 Spots remaining.

Reserve your seat here =>

You don’t need any prior knowledge of Finance or Investing ~ just a zest to grow significant wealth through direct equity fundamental stock selection.The Training Workshop will build your conviction for this  

We’ve got a great mix of participants as usual from Small Investors to high Networth from MNC Banks & FPIs & leading Corporate Houses from Dubai,Karnataka,Kerala,Pune & of course Mumbai.A Guinness Book of Records probably is being set by one who is attending a fourth consecutive workshop ! 🙂

This time the Theme is Short term 20-20 & Longer term 2020 Stock Selection-Value Vs Price & assessing Global & Domestic Risks that can be challenging & Mistakes that Investors typically make like Improper Framing,Herd Mentality,Anchoring,Overstating Risks & therefore missing opportunities  & last but not the least Selling off too early  

We start with a fun & illuminating Scrip Quiz Tambola & later in the day you create your own Equity Portfolio from the ideas discussed based on your risk profile that you shall assess.

Prizes on offer

Reserve your seat right away here before Registrations close =>

Sensex & Nifty roaring at records highs of 32000+ & 10000+ respectively ! What next!? ~ Can the Nifty be 30000 in five years ! ~ What would the Sensex be then ?

Then should it be Passive Index Investing or Active Fundamental Direct Stock Selection for better Wealth Creation?

Another opportunity for us to interact after two roaring Stocks of the Year recos Shemaroo & Astec in Outlook Business 2015 & 2016 respectively & three successful Workshops in Bengaluru & Mumbai in 2016 & 2017 where over 50 scrips were assessed on Value vs Price on Assets,Earnings & Market Cap including runaway hits IB Ventures & IB Real Estate, Spicejet,Tata Investments & Bombay Burmah.Covering several newer ideas on Saturday as training case studies that include takeovers, demergers & nonlinear earnings potential situations .

We should cover Warren Buffett & Peter Lynch approaches too on Portfolio Selection as well as Insider Trading & other Corporate Governance Issues that plague our Stock Markets & Banking & Financial Institutions & Listed Companies read more

“Why I Am Leaving Goldman Sachs”….Greg Smith,Executive Director and Head of Equity Derivatives Business in Europe,Middle East and Africa

Wall Street or Dalal Street…This egrerious culture and mindset of making money…anyhow….is the common factor 

Goldman Sachs always remains in the news ~ and this time ,like again and again in recent years, for the wrong reasons

“Why I Am Leaving Goldman Sachs”….Greg Smith,Executive Director and Head of Equity Derivatives Business in Europe,Middle East and Africa

On March 14,2012,New York Times carried this oped by Greg Smith announcing his resignation….impactful way of  communicating your resignation…Market Cap of Goldman Sachs dropped over US $ 2 Billion post this oped  

You can read it all here in NY Times  ……don’t forget to read the interesting responses too

By an arrangement ,Economic Times too carried the piece  in their edition of March 15,2012…you can access this in Economic Times here  

Earlier in 2011,another Goldman Sachs Employee,Antonio left too citing similar sentiment as Greg Smith…I had blogged on this as below

“Quants were the eunuchs at the orgy”….loved this one from Antonio,ex Goldman Sachs!

Monday, June 27th, 2011

Antonio called Goldman Sachs the “World’s largest bookie” and regreted he had not made the switch earlier out of Goldman Sachs 

Am sure legendary living Investor Guru,Warren Buffett will not agree with Greg Smith….for Warren Buffett invested heavily in Goldman Sachs in September 2008….in my opinion actually bailed them out in immediately tough Post Lehman debacle times…I had blogged on this earlier in  

Did Value Investor and Living Investment Legend, Warren Buffett, invest US $ 5 Billion in Goldman Sachs in September 2008 for reasons other than Value !?

Thursday, December 4th, 2008

In India too it’s no different…a few years ago having been invited to a Capital Markets Seminar organised by one of the big Four Accounting and Auditing Firms, and as I was entering I overheard their Senior Partner,who too had arrived just before me, quipping to his Executive ” Got enough Bakras today “…..Suckers,he meant !…..Greg Smith reveals how Goldman Sachs Managing Directors often referred clients as ‘Muppets’

 …and this is precisely the reason I have stayed Independent…not aligning or joining up with any of the leading names in Indian Capital Markets in Investment or Merchant Banking,FIIs,Mutual Funds or even Broking Houses…so that I don’t have to deal or confront with likely situations of  daily house bias,prejudiced views,selfserving advisory,toeing the line, dictats,moral conflicts  etc….ofcourse Earnings and Driving Revenues remain key objectives…I have no issues on this as Business is not a charity…but Monies can be earned by providing a valuable and honest service to clients rather than by deliberate misselling or self serving advisory or hawking of less than Investment grade,Investments….greed and the need to meet targets often translates to operational and moral recklessness and improper and inapropriate advice and functioning that could cross the line into manipulation,fraud and deceit read more

Don’t believe everything you read or hear !….Even legendary Investment Icons seem to deliberately preach one thing and practice quite another !

It’s not some startling truth that I’m revealing to you…..but deliberate misguidance has been a major weapon in the armoury of Investment Icons….I daresay when they play ‘Scale’ they will make monies only when you lose !….in that they influence and guide you to take contrary positions to what they actually do !…It’s a common occurrence in India Too…so when you Hear the experts on the stock channels,do play devils advocate and be skeptic…it could save you a lot of Money !

Last few days ,I have come across some very astute observations,which have gone largely unreported in the Press…deliberately so…you’ll understand why as you read this Blog

Our Vice President,Mr Hamid Ansari, gave a speech in January which highlighted the dangers of this fast growing practice of ‘Paid News’ in leading Newspapers with a National Footprint….he spoke of the potential danger of destabilising the Polity and Economy of India through this practice of  ‘Buying Newspaper and Television Space’ to promote Interests by spreading what one wants to deliberately disseminate

The way I look at this is that this ‘Paid News’ is a way of legitimising an age old practice of wooing top Journalists and editors to plant headline stories !….I know of one leading ex-editor of a top Pink Paper who unabashedly indulged in this practice and was rewarded handsomely and regularly,obviously not on records!, by a top Industrial House….he also shamefully,in the 1980s,as if it was his right, ordered promoters of New Companies to allot shares to him from their quotas before the IPOs…made a killing from such cornered and preferred Investments !…SEBI and Demat came later in the 1990s…In return the Company’s IPO was reported favourably with high ratings…guaranteeing oversubscription and a high price on listing !

M V Kamath reported in his column in Mumbai’s daily tabloid that the Vice Prersident’s speech was covered only by ‘Hindu’….the others,deliberately did not cover it as they were the ‘ire’ of the Speech for resorting to ‘Paid News’…Money Matters,not Content !   

So don’t believe everything you read ! 

But more Interesting to me,is the accusations being levelled at two of our biggest Investment Icons in the World….Warren Buffett and George Soros

Both have been “talking their book”….giving opinions contrary to what they actually are implementing in their investment strategies  read more

Warren E Buffett warns of the ‘Greenback Effect’

Warren E Buffett,while warning of consequences of the ‘Greenback Effect’,  is bravely being Optimistic and Patriotic ,like every true blue blooded US Citizen should be !

Says Buffett, ” The United States remains by far the most prosperous country on earth,and it’s debt-carrying capacity will grow in the future just as it has in the past”

Check out Buffett’s Op-Ed Column in yesterday’s edition of New York Times

Buffett is happy that Obama and his Men showed the much needed Wisdom,Courage and Decisiveness required to address the US Financial Crisis…He urges them to continue this Momentum and make some hard decisions

USA ,maybe out of the ICU,yet remains in the Woods…financial situation remains critical….Fiscal Deficit will climb to 13% of GDP this year…that’s US $ 1.8 trillion Dollars…This would be funded half by a Net Current Account balance of  US $ 400 billion(China-Foreign Debt Dependence)  and Expectations of National Savings of US $ 500 billion and that these will be routed through the Banks into the Economy…The other Half Funding of US $ 900 Billion will probably be from Fresh Printing of New Currency Notes

What if China reduces,or even halts, it’s Investment in US $ Treasury Bonds for fear of a Weakening Dollar !?…Currently it has an exposure of US  $ 800 Billion in such Bonds in it’s  FX Reserves of US $ 2 Trillion…China,while retaining it’s US exposure, may opt to Invest the Dollars it’s earning from US exports,in other US assets,like Real Estate,Stocks and Buyout of Companies ,rather than in US Treasuries

The Net US Debt will climb to 56% (from 41%) of GDP…that’s a huge US $ 7 Trillion of Debt

There are paradoxical and Catch 22 situations that exist….The USA Citizens need to both, Save and Consume ! to stimulate the Economy…the former will help in Capital Formation and the latter will stir demand and revive American Industry…With Unemployment at 10%,where is the Income in the first place for Millions of the American Workforce !…Yet,when Push has come to Shove in USA,we’ve witnessed Savings climb to 5% from lows of 1% and 2%

Obama’s stimulus packages may have prevented a collapse and depression and a meltdown but the critical growing levels of Fiscal Deficit and National Debt and their adverse Impact on the Dollar is causing sleepless nights,not just in USA but the World over read more

Scroll to Top