In December 2011 Morgan Stanley had OnMobile Global @ Rs 66 as a Wealth Creator Idea ! as they did along with Enam even Jain irrigation too at Rs 120 + ~ Both have sunk 50% while Indices have held on !

In December 2011 ,Morgan Stanley had OnMobile Global @ 66 as a Wealth Creator Idea ! as they did ,along with Enam, Jain irrigation too at Rs 120 + ~ Both have sunk 50% inside Nine Months even as Sensex and Nifty have held on!

Any Idea Any one what are they saying about these  now ~ with OnMobile Global at Rs 37 and Jain Irrigation at Rs 61 ! ?

I’m not bashing them,but then I found their research and due diligence severely lacking when they strongly recommended these for Investing ~ I’m assuming they did not have any vested interest in doing so ~ That would be beyond being just unethical !

At the time I had put OnMobile on Scrip Watch as I needed Fundamental conviction though Technical Guys were also recommending it strongly  ~ For Jain Irrigation I had strongly differed on the strong bullishness of  both Enam and Morgan Stanley and voiced strongly to short it (not on the Blog but to Clients under Advisory) as they were facing mounting Debt pressures as Maharashtra & Andhra State Governments were simply not releasing Subsidies

Corporate Governance issues are playing up in both and those experts on TV who are now predicting a bounce back in Jain Irrigation may just be living on Hope ! ~ probably they too had recommended this strongly! ~ Jain Irrigation has just announced plans to raise US $ 200 million

So best of Luck to all those who Blindly Follow the Big Guys ~ & those Experts on TV who have run through the 4000 BSE Listings already !~ they are being paid in lakhs for you to lose lakhs !~ so it seems !

Cheers !

A Year Ago in May 2011 Morgan Stanley was exciting everyone predicting a Sensex of 30000 inside 18 Months while I disagreed stating Sensex will seek 16000 soon ! ~ it was at 18500 Levels then ~ A Year Later it’s broken 16000 on the Downside….and Morgan Stanley Yet keeps Predicting !

This is not a Morgan Stanley Bashing Intent ~ More to continue to caution Investors from following the ‘Big’ Blindly  

A Year Ago in May 2011 Morgan Stanley was exciting everyone predicting a Sensex of 30000 inside 18 Months while I disagreed stating it will seek 16000 soon ! ~ it was at 18500 Levels then ~ Morgan Stanley’s Sensex Report was both Misleading and Irresponsible ~ and in the absence of strong Investment Advisory Regulations,despite continuing efforts from SEBI to create them,they will get away with it 

A Year Later in 2012  as June Begins our Sensex has broken 16000 on the downside….

…..and Morgan Stanley continues to churn out Newer Reports and Newer Predictions ! ~ Damn the Old Ones ! and Move on to New Ones !…..Poor Investor Suckers continue to be influenced by such ludicrous Predictions and Reports often based on fancy and often outlandish concepts,believing that if one is Big one is Good ! ~ and with leading Stock Channels promoting such Reports and [email protected]#$%^& who masquerade as Experts who create them ! it’s easy for Small Investors to become gullible and be seduced ~ Feel really Sad and Sorry for them as they get sucked in big time…this Blog is an effort to provide some sanity with a disclaimer that Investors must seek proper and professional Investment advice    

Check out my Blog a year ago on this

Saturday…..time out is time in !…..IFEN address,parrots,squirrels and sparrows,Reliance and Insider Trading,Oil Subsidies,RBI Warning on Fiscal Deficit,Iron Ore Bubble, High Frequency Algorithimic Trading,Morgan Stanley an a Sensex of 30000 in 18 months……enough to ponder over this weekend

Saturday, May 21st, 2011 Here is the Relevant Extract from My above Blog Post a year ago _______________________________________________________________________________
  • Morgan Stanley releases a report predicting a Sensex of 30000 in 18 months based on the modified earnings yield gap approach…but says it will first go down in the next three months from 18000+ levels before bouncing back…ofcourse there are caveats too

http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/sensex-at-30000-in-18-months-morgan-stanley/436180/

Given Global and Domestic Macro concerns,I would reiterate that the Sensex will seek 16000 shortly….and I will not share Morgan Stanley’s model optimism that the Sensex will touch 30000 in 18 months…..I wish it does though !

_______________________________________________________________________________

In this Context also Check out my earlier blogs on What some of those who worked for Goldman Sachs have to say about their Ex Employer…Stunning Stuff

“Why I Am Leaving Goldman Sachs”….Greg Smith,Executive Director and Head of Equity Derivatives Business in Europe,Middle East and Africa

Saturday, March 17th, 2012

“Quants were the eunuchs at the orgy”….loved this one from Antonio,ex Goldman Sachs! Monday, June 27th, 2011

 

Your Mind is Precious and is your Private Space ~ Use Discretion at both levels ~ when Inviting Investment Views & Forecasts & Opinions In ! ~ and When Accepting them ! ~ for you see Opinions are like Assh…s ~ every one has them ! ~ and as it seems the Big have Bigger ones !…as big as 30000!  read more

Alright April 1,2012 is behind us now…But Sensex in FY 13 is ahead of us !…what will it be !?

Alright April 1,2012 is behind us now…But Sensex in FY 13 is ahead of us !…what will it be !?

Well,Rudra ,easy to gamble and double your bets and call a 35000 Sensex ! …and Shankar,you instantly connected All Fools Day,April 1 with my Sensex 30000 blog post last night !…but you never know Shankar !

Anyway,Shankar,you’ve asked for my view on the Sensex trend ahead in FY 13….I’ve posted a Page on it already on March 8,2012 at

 

Sensex Close ~ December 2011 – 15455 …..December 2012 – ? Macro Indicated at 18000 + ~ Que Sera Sera…..

Thursday, March 8th, 2012

You may also be interested what FIIs view the Sensex and Nifty Trend this Calendar and Financial Year…same day posted this page too 

Sensex 2012 ~ Winning or Whining !? ~ Which Way Will The Wind Blow ? ~ Leading FIIs make a positive bias call in Dec 2011 and Jan 2012

Thursday, March 8th, 2012

In : 2200 Million Dollars ~ Up :2200 Sensex in just over the first month in Calendar 2012!…Now an Alpha chaser relies on the Consumer Confidence Index to proclaim a Dow of 15000 + by December 2012 !…if so,will our Sensex regain 20000+ this year !?

@ 2200 Million Dollars In & our Sensex 2200 Points up in just over the first month in Calendar 2012!

December 2011 closed at 15500 Sensex levels…Then came some frenzied FII Inflows of @ US $ 2200 Million in January and the first week of February in 2012 propelling our Sensex up 2200 Points and 14% to current levels of 17700 !

Nows comes a US Dow Posturing,and I must say rather pugnaciously too, by Alpha Chaser,Nicholas Vardy,of a level over 15000 by December 2012 !…it currently has surged to 12900 levels ….his dependency is on the indicator of Consumer Confidence Index

 http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

When it falls below 50,a new bull run is indicated as a trend reversal…in October 2011 it fell below 40 after climbing back past 50 from all time low of just over 25 in March 2009…It closed January 2012 at 61.1 down from December 2011’s 64+ ….Look at the chart above…it shows that in the 44 year history of CCI,there have been 18 occasions when the Index dropped below 50…the five major spikes have been in 1974 (Oil Crisis),1980 (Iran Hostage Crisis,Rising Unemployment and Interest rates and 13.5% Inflation and a full recession in 1981/82),1991/92 (Post Gulf War Crisis,Growing deficits,Slowing GDP,Savings & Loans Crisis) and late 2011  

So if The Dow Prognosis of 15000+ is Correct will we see even our Own Sensex racing past 20000 yet again by year end !?

Goldman Sachs have just issued a Buy on Reliance with a  year end target of Rs 970 on an EPS of 90 for FY 13 …they are betting on better Refining Margins oin the second half of the current year and better demand,coupled with the fact of ‘mothballing’ of capacities and projects in USA and Europe

Reliance is currently just a shade below Rs 850 and has a beta of 1.18 and Sensex weightage of 10.31%…in the past there was allround perception that the Sensex Movement was directly corelated to that of Reliance…2009 and 2010 shattered this Myth…Reliance actually tanked,while Sensex soared back from 8000 levels to recapture 20000 Levels

Interresting Year…this 2012…End Feb,it should finally be a Make or Break for Greece as Euro Leaders finally decide to provide a Debt Relief package for Greece if it complies with stringent austerity measures or simply let it default…default increases the probability and possibility of Greece exiting the Euro Zone !…it’s a disastrous thought as hyper recession will set in Europe and major Financial bankrupties will occur…the implications are ominous to the rest of the World read more

Request by BSE Brokers Forum to respond to their Investor Survey

It will take just a few minutes of your time….

The Vice Chairman of the BSE Brokers Forum called to request that I provide this link of theirs on my Blog for an Investors Survey of 25 Questions…I have responded by answering the survey myself as well as providing you’ll the link below

It’s an interesting  and long overdue genuine endeavour by BSE Brokers to reach out to all Investors for their Views and Inputs so that The Integrity of Operations & Systems & Processes can be improved

Please do participate in the BSE Brokers Forum Survey by clicking below…While the Survey has been designed in a ‘Tick your Pick’  Structure the Subjective Box at the end allows you to speak your mind too  

https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/bbf_survey_capmkt2012 

Thanks

Sensex is repenting for it’s sins now…rightly retreating…sub 18000 enroute to 16000 !…..providing nine links of my earlier Sensex Warning and Views Blogs of the past six months

Sensex is repenting for it’s sins now…rightly retreating…sub 18000 enroute to 16000 !…as I blog the Sensex is currently struggling to stay over 17500 after a High of 17925 and a Low of 17314

…the volatility is a killer….some see it as a trading opportunity….Fools and Monies are soon parted  !

Not going to say much on this again and again….just providing below nine links of my Sensex warning and views Blogs of the past six months…please do vist them again….have been reiterating for several months now that like 2010 was a tricky year for Equities,so will 2011 be…..so don’t be in any hurry to invest in the Sensex or Stocks…..lest you get handcuffed to them !…Cheers !

 

Sensex closes below 18000…on it’s way to 16000?…what should you do?

Monday, May 23rd, 2011

Sad our Sensex is not feeling any Aftershocks of Japan….

Wednesday, March 16th, 2011

Markets looking Ominous…..beware the Ides of March !…Sensex down 2% and from 18000 can seek sub 16000 levels in 2011

Tuesday, March 15th, 2011

At Current 18000 Levels our Sensex is like a Strapless Bra……..!

Monday, March 7th, 2011

Muted Expectations from the Union Budget….and the FM delivered on cue…..Sensex rally of 500 + Points had to reverse

Monday, February 28th, 2011

Indian Equities sliding on the Binary Scale…Interest Rates at 10% and Crude Oil at US $ 100 +

Thursday, February 24th, 2011

February makes me Shiver with every Blog I deliver…..Sensex continues South…now sub 18000

Tuesday, February 1st, 2011

 

Equities continue Reeling…seek Counselling as appropriate…Contrarion Opportunity may again be beckoning soon

Friday, January 28th, 2011

 

Markets Grumble and Rumble….and then Tumble !……what did you expect !

Friday, January 7th, 2011