GauravBlog Logo

A Lion’s eye on the Bulls and Bears

“In India, companies may fall sick, but promoters rarely do!”

Gaurav's Blog

Categories

Politics~India

SEBI is right in regulating those offering stock recos on Social Media

SEBI is right in regulating those offering stock recos on Social Media & Emails & SMSs.

SEBI’s latest salvo to brokers is a 29 Page New Compliance Directive issued in September 2016 while to Investment Advisers (IA) is a 30 page Consultation Paper of October 7,2016 for  amendments to IA Regulations 2013 & inviting comments by November 4,2016

This  Consultation Paper plans to ,among several amendments & clarifications,disallow Investment Advisers offering stock recos  on Social Media unless authorised by SEBI.This has been instantly bashed on Social Media itself for this with hash tags like #SEBIkidadagiri & #SEBIGoback

Looks like SEBI is in a Catch 22 ~ Damned if it Did & Damned if it Don’t !

In my Considered View it’s better it Did

The major grouse by those against such strong regulation is impinging on Freedom of Speech & Expression in a Democracy & why is it ok to give advice on TV and not on Social Media & SEBI just wants to get the Fees….but believe me there is a lot of Nonsense going around & make no Nonsense of it !.SEBI is simply endeavouring to stamp it out as much as it can and Fees are incidental to this objective though this is an ammunition for the critics who say that  SEBI operates in creating a Fear Psychosis environment among Capital Market Intermediaries…..let me tell you this….for decades many such Intermediaries had a free untamed and often arrogant run ….often like wolves in pack that run together in nexus that has revealed one scam after another at the cost of retail investor suckers.In the early 1990s SEBI got it’s infancy teeth and as the years rolled by  it’s wisdom teeth….also sadly in the early 1990s lobbying got the Controller of Capital Issues (CCI) body to be abolished allowing Companies to flood the Primary Markets with IPOs at obscene Premiums  in Bullish Times when it was easy to sucker a greedy Investor base.Without Strong Investor Education & Protection base in Place the Investors were left to swim & drown in the Capital Markets Sea full of Sharks

Just penning a few thoughts on the Consultation Paper & may add more as I think them….

  • Wish SEBI had invited me to be on their Committee or even as an Advisor when Planning the Regulations….sure would have added serious & fair value without bias
  • Where there is Money there will be Stink!…and with Sensex nearing 30000 again with Market Cap at Rs 11230121 crs or US $ 1.7 Trillion and expected to climb into 2017 you can imagine the Stink!…call it ‘Nexus’ if you want !….The Stakes are getting Higher in the Game !
  • It has removed some exceptions & rightly got MF Distributors who offer advice too ,IFAs & those where advisory was incidental to business & those utilising automated tools for advisory (robot advisory) within the purview
  • It’s Luck more than Skills that often determines Success & Luck gets Luckier in Bullish Times .Like worms out of  woodwork,advisors proliferate giving specific trading and investment and even speculative equity and derivative calls without much fundamental depth or basis & its easy for small investors to get swayed and seduced and influenced in the lure to make some quick monies in stocks.They often entice with free trials(this is planned to go) & play the 50/50 probability game where those who lose drop out and those who win continue till they lose while referring more suckers
  • SEBI may ban equity advice on Social Media but how would they pursue those who flout this as its difficult to trace those who use Bulk SMS & hide behind Servers & IP walls
  • Thankfully SEBI has not included Training in Capital Markets Services requires Registration.However for incisive Training I have to fundamentally analyse & value listed companies & opine on the Value Vs Share Price.I have been doing this for over 30 years .Can this Opinion for Educating & not Commercial or Investment or Disinvestment Recommendation Purposes in my Training Sessions &  on my blog linked to Social Media too,construe as Advice and which requires SEBI Registration ?…this is the reason many good analysts have stopped Blogging all together.In my view this a great disservice to small retail investors.Where would they get reliable & good reasoning advice from ? from Brokers &  Experts on Bubble TV Stock Channels?.They have their own axe to grind & I daresay are not part of the Human Race in this context!…so far for years I have turned down sponsored & paid blogger invite meets & offers of  guest & paid blogs and advertisements from many finance institutions and individuals,many of them well known to avoid any blog bias and conflict of interest.
  • Does Registration with SEBI guarantee the quality of the Advice of registered advisors and research analysts?~any individual with just a lakh of networth and who can attain at least 60% in the NISM Certification examination can register to be one stating some unverifiable experience in this field
  • Let SEBI Be a Watchdog not a Bloodhound….we are taught this the first thing when studying to be a Chartered Accountant….it cannot be a mindset for “Guilty till proven Innocent”
  • Would this be protecting the vagabond listed companies rather than Investors as no one can air an opinion or view on the company’s doings unless they are registered with SEBI!?….read many of my blogposts on such errant companies & you shall know what I mean…In the past I have fundamentally warned with reasoning ,without charging any fee, on Satyam,Geodesic,Arshiya International,Cranes Software,Karuturi etc that went on do become duds  ….now to do so I may have to seek  SEBI Registration !
  • There is a growing argument that SEBI is just frying the small…Not True….it’s got Sahara too
  • Doctors,Lawyers ,Chartered Accountants all need to be qualified and registered to practice…so should Equity Advisors….self regulation does not work as they will protect their own….we saw this with ICAI in the Satyam Matter & even AMFI in many MF matters.Having said this,just like CA’s are licking their lips on incremental work on GST roll out,Lawyers specialising in SEBI Matters too will increase & flourish as additional litigation work should flow to them
  • SEBI Registration requires a minimum Academic or Professional Qualification~Why should Politicians who stand for Elections not be qualified too !?….ah perhaps that’s what leading to faking degrees!…to register to be an Investment Adviser,one has to pass the Investor Advisers Certification Exams by NISM.To be a designated as a Research Analyst one has to have passed the NISM Research Analyst examination.This is also a requisite for registering with SEBI as a Research Analyst.After 30 years I gave an exam again!~ In July 2016 scored over 90% ,attempting 98 of the 100 questions and getting 92 right! in the online NISM Research Analyst Certification Test…This allows me legally now to be designated as a Research Analyst but I have to seek SEBI Registration to practice as one for Consideration!
  • SEBI should regulate but not over regulate or else there is danger in killing the goose that lays the egg.It must remember that Investment in Equities are inherently risky in that there is no guarantee of any return.While it protects Investors through stringent advisory regulations ,it cannot lay the ground for litigation option for these investors against the advisors and research analysts every time when their specific advice leads to a loss.Stocks are traded in real time and can go up and down.That’s the essence of Equity markets in that there is a Buyer & Seller of a specific stock at a given time and price & Prices are a factor of Liquidity,Sentiment,Momentum,Valuation & Demand & Supply & Vested Interests.Advisors can be pitted against Advisors on specific selections & thus one has to come out on the other side of the road
  • Only 515 registered Investment Advisers registered with SEBI as on September 28, 2016 ? come on !
  • Is it best left to Institutionalise the Markets and force retail investors to route through MFs?
  • SEBI clarifies the distinction between Investment Advisor & Research Analyst and that many register as latter to avoid higher compliance in the former.It now will direct even Research Analysts to make no distinction between Class of Clients in timing and comprehensivness of the Research Report being communicated.They will also have to comply with Chapter III of the Investment Advisers Regulations 2013 in that such advice has to be suitable for the client’s financial position and investment objectives.This would mean engaging in KYC and not  merely offering subscriber research reports
  • Many perceive SEBI  stands for ‘Systematic Elimination of Brokers & Investors’ ! ~ such measures reinforce this perception
  • One of SEBI’s planned measures is to ban all schemes,games,leagues & competition relating to Securities.It does not specify whether any consideration is received or not for such.I understand this was specifically aimed at all those Trading Competitions & Leagues initiated by zero discount broking houses.This was a great legally allowed Scam in itself in my view as the Broking House made lots of Crores while seducing Traders to enroll with Performance Prizes in just a few Crores.One even has legendary Cricketer Kapil Dev as it’s Brand Ambassador ! He better watch out as there are now strict accountability for Celebrities endorsing Products & Services.The trap was they had to trade a minimum number of transactions in a week that too in only the Specified Group of Scrips or else they would not qualify for the Prizes on offer.In my fundamental concept view this went against the very tenets of  making Equity Investments for Wealth Creation over the Long Term as it encouraged Quickies in Trading leading to overtrading just so they achieve the minimum transactions per week.The Mathematics were great for the Broking House !.Imagine this with just 10000 (& there are more)registered traders for such schemes ~ Five Transactions a Week a Must & Rs 20 brokerage/transaction for 52 Weeks is a cool Rs 5.2 crs!~ that’s Rs 10 lakhs Brokerage a week at just Rs 100 per trader !~ Now imagine the Maths at 1 lakh participants!…a whopping Rs 52 crs at Rs One Cr a week….Now Imagine even more than One Lakh Traders participating !…It’s literally & figuratively a Steal for the Broking House
  • For a few years on this Blog I have been successfully offering a TAP GAP Poser to all blog readers without charging any fees and instead awarding the gauravblog hampers to answers I decide are winning ones.One such Poser is an annual one at the end of the year for any participant from the public who reads my blog to suggest up to three specific equity picks that in their view will perform the best in the coming year.I may have to stop this even though there is no consideration involved.Will take SEBI’s guidance on this as their Consultation paper has even defined what construes as ‘Consideration’

As far as SEBI’s September salvo to Brokers for more compliance,it’s been a mixed reaction from brokers….some feel compliance costs will rise on account of more manpower required and new software with high annual maintenance charges & in fact it will be difficult to comply and this would lead to selling out or consolidating with other brokers….dwindling broking fees and rising costs will sound the death knell to small brokers.Who then will serve Retail Investors,if at all they are not scared away again from markets?…while some Brokers feel it will cleanse the system of manipulative & dishonest brokers & even those who cannot cope with servicing clients under stricter compliance.“kachro saaf thayi jashey” is their assertion read more

Toll Free Court Order has Noida Toll Bridge Toiling down over 35% to Rs 14

Disclaimer at the Outset ~ This Blogpost is not a Recommendation but only an endeavour to interpret what is in the public domain given the latest developments  & to thus spell out risks that have played up.I intend to showcase this at my Equity Training Sessions 

Toll Free Court Order has Noida Toll Bridge Toiling down over 35% to Rs 14

I have never been a fan of Noida Toll Bridge for many years now for two straight reasons :

1-Corporate Governance ~ In November 1997 a Service Concession Agreement for the Noida Toll Bride and Mayur Vihar Link Road was entered into by the Company,it’s promoter IL & FS & NOIDA,UP Govt.Its been a huge controversy since inception in both granting the Concession to IL & FS company Noida Toll Bridge & the subsequent padding of  recoverable Project Cost which incredulously kept being padded every year even after completion because of the absolutely deliberately lenient Agreement Terms that allowed this for any designated returns ( a high 20% pa) that were not attained in the year.There was no cap on Operational Costs too in the Agreement & this allowed the Company to present poor returns and thus pad up project costs to be recovered.Much of the Operational Costs found their way into higher Salaries,Commissions & Perks for the retired IAS Officers who had founded IL & FS and this Company. The Spirit of the PPP was severely dented .Private Benefits at the expense of the Public.Project Costs that should have been @ Rs 200 crs balloned to over Rs 408 crs & then padded up to over Rs 1000 crs !….it was a unprecedented CAGR of designated returns yet to be recovered ! that allowed the company to collect till infinity even beyond the at least 30 year concession granted in the November 1997 agreement.It was only last year on July 9,2015 a modified agreement froze the amount payable as on March 31,2011 & terminates the Agreement on March 31,2031.The Company also has development rights under the Agreement but it has not yet recognised these in their Financial Statements.These could amount to Hundreds of Crores in itself.

2-I saw it as a range bound stock with no serious capital appreciation and just dividend yield, as it’s model was simply just toll collection &  then dividend payments once it broke out in 2010.Predictable Flows & DCF captured the range valuation. The expectations of non linear flows through recognition of Development Rights did inflate share price once or twice but till date this has not happened & given Allahabad court order to stop charging user fees now arises a ? mark if at all will they arise.The Court however has upheld the Concession Agreement but ruled inoperative the collection of any levy or Toll Fee read more

GST for Wealth Creation~Gauravs Stock Training~Bangalore Saturday September 10 2016

🙂  GST for Wealth Creation~Gaurav’s Stock Training~Bangalore Saturday September 10 2016 ~ Just be There

Hey how’s that for a corny lift off  GST : Goods & Services Tax !

Well one’s for Wealth Creation of our Nation ~ will add to our GDP ~ & the other is for Wealth Creation for yourself through Direct Equity Fundamental Training at Bangalore on September 10,2016 at The Chancery

Will be covering many selections & how in FOUR STEPS to assess Value and pitch it against the Share Price in many scenarios like Strategic Stakes & Holding Companies,Asset/Segment/Division/Subsidiary Spinoffs,Scale Potential,Acquisitions,Sector turnarounds,Niche Plays etc…will show you how to source & interpret relevant,reliable & timely data

We shall also debate with case studies whether “India & Insider Trading are Inseparable”

There are Awards & Rewards for those who interact best and even provide solutions to what I shall ask in game play & case studies especially during the Investor Psychology & Mistakes Session

Registrations are pouring in & this is Just to remind you it’s early bird discount all inclusive Rs 7000 price till August 15,2016 only after which it increases to Rs 7700

So just click online below now to register & pay & book your seat

Fundamental Equity Training Workshop Bangalore :Stock Selection~Value Vs Price~Saturday, September 10, 2016

You can make specific requests too .Here are a few already from those registered :

 

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail and Centum Electronics. Discussion required on growth companies which have good future prospects

 

  •  

    When to sell, Managing over-diversification for salaried (SIP) investors

     

  •  

    I AM A SMALL RETAIL INVESTOR HAVING SMALL KNOWLEDGE IN STOCK MARKET. SIR I HOPE THIS WORKSHOP WILL HELP ME IN FINDING STOCKS LIKE ASTEC LIFESCIENCE

     

  •  

    Deliberating Gold & Silver vs Equity & their current weightage in Asset Allocation

     

  • Fundamental-Equity-Workshop-Bangalore-10Sept16-JSAA

    Stock Selection-Value vs Price~Bangalore Fundamental Equity Workshop on Sat Sept 10

    🙂 Hey! would love to interact with  you at my full day Bangalore Fundamental Equity Workshop at ‘The Chancery’ on Saturday,September 10,2016

    Stock Selection – Value Vs Price

    Just opened Online Registration & Payment~Limited Seats~Early Birds can register & pay Rs 7000 all inclusive for it then goes up to Rs 7700 later

    On clicking the above link to register & pay online you will also get Full Workshop Details on Content Coverage & how you can Benefit with Fundamental Training Pointers for Serious Wealth Creation through Direct Equity with astute Stock Selections

    Whether you are just a Beginner or even a Veteran in Equities,you don’t need to prepare before hand for attending the workshop….but I do reward those who interact well with me and come out with some awesome solutions in situations that we discuss,especially on Investor Mistakes

    While registering you can also request for specific coverage at the workshop of any listed company or relevant issue that impacts markets and valuation…I shall of course be covering Investor Gurus,Investing Approaches,Investing Themes & Investing Mistakes & a lot more

    🙂 Would be awesome if you could be there…so do invest in one day with me in Bangalore~Saturday ,September 10,2016

    Cheers!

    Fundamental-Equity-Workshop-Bangalore-10Sept16-JSAA

     

    A Dose of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

    Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on Future of Equity Market

    Methinks every Indian Equity Investor needs a dose of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala (RJ) every few years! ~ any sooner it could be an Overdose !  😆 ~ just kidding !

    I like the guy ! ~ right since I interacted with him when I invited him around 15 years ago at the turn of this century for interacting in an evening  Q & A session with my packed class of @ 90 participants in my Equity Portfolio Structuring and Stock Analysis Workshop at the BSE Training Institute as I thought he would add practical value & he did

    “Boss ! I’m a Sadak Chaap ! ”  he had told us then as also how he had reconstructed his equity portfolio to concentrate only in a few stocks after the 2000 ICE debacle…so in a sense most of his Wealth has grown only in this Millennium in the past 15 years ~ and to his credit in Selections that were not really Blue Chip or Core

    Yesterday had gone for an  IMC interactive meet in Mumbai to check out if RJ has sobered & matured in his ‘manner of speak’ over the years ~ I rarely watch Stock Channels ~ don’t even have a TV in office~  so was not really conversant with how & what he delivered in his appearances though knew of his initiating big stakes in companies

    I am delighted to blog he has not changed ! ~ shot straight from the hip & mouth again as he always does ” I’m a satodia(translated to mean speculator)  & investor & not an economist” ~ his investment portfolio has spread into the Alternatives of  Bollywood Movie Production too with Kareena & Arjun starrer ‘Ki & Ka’ being his latest co production~ is into horse racing too and owns a few horses ~ passions perhaps where return on investments need not be measured in monies !?

    Many perceive him as Dehati or Crude Dude for his rustic loud boorish way of speech~ but don’t let it fool you ! & he does not make any pretenses ~ he’s a CA by training & wears a fairly sharp mind

    Money Talks & Crowd Laps it up all !~ many vigorously & ‘knowledgeably’ nodding in agreement

    These RJ’s views & responses to questions posed should interest you :

    On The Future of Equity Markets ~ Reiterates this is only the Trailer & we are going to witness a Mother of all Bull Runs.India is a thriving young Democracy with US $ 600 b in Savings every year.Equity Markets receive just US $ 50 b from this.This has to improve and it will ~ anyone ,any  doubt!?   

    On Returns from Equity  ~ Ironically while his riches have been through multibagger 1000% + equity gains in concentrated high weightage stocks like Titan & Crisil he asserts that one should be happy with 18% CAGR gains and if it goes to 24% one should be really happy read more

    Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value

    FY 16 has been a mixed year for Stocks with Markets on a downward drift  with  Sensex closing 9.4% lower  at 25341

    Sensex disappoints in FY 16 as many of the 30 constituents lose big value 

    Interesting & Heartening to it’s Shareholders ,Reliance has been the biggest constituent gainer at @ 27% while at the other end BHEL has lost half it’s value at 51% !  ~ another 11 companies have lost between @ 19% to 30 % values

    Domestic Concerns revolved around  second consecutive failure of monsoon in 2015 &  slow pace of Reforms  & Corporate Earnings Lethargy with growth in single digits despite boasts of GDP Growth of over 7% and lower Inflation and Oil Price falling 40%

    Global Concerns revolved around  China’s Growth slowing down considerably & It’s Stock Markets losing a lot of it’s froth in panic falls, continuing recession in Europe & expectations of the US Fed raising rate

    Consequently FPI Inflows which were a record US $ 17 b in FY 2015, reversed to outflows of US 2.1 b in FY 16.These outflows would have been higher if last month March 2016  had not seen a reversal back to FPI Inflows of US $ 3.2 b 

    In the first three months of this Calendar Year 2016 , January &  February 2016 witnessed significant outflows of US 1.67 b & US $0.8 b respectively that dropped Sensex to 23000 levels.On the back of many countries like Japan,Switzerland and Sweden embarking on Negative Interest Rate Policy,the  US Fed send out dovish signals and has delayed Rate hikes.This saw FPI Equity Inflows smartly cross US $ 3 b in  March 2016  getting them back into the Green in 2016 & revive the Sensex back up @ 10% to 25500 levels or else FY 16 would have seen a Sensex drop of nearly 5000 points & @ 18%,double than what it actually did in the end

    Here are some FY 16 Trend observations :

  • Sensex closed down 9.4%.It was down @ 18 % just around a month ago but smartly pulled back on record US $ 3b FPI Inflows in March 2016
  • Of the 30 Sensex Constituents,amusingly after a seven year itch perhaps 🙂  Reliance is the biggest gainer  at 27% taking it’s Market Cap to US $ 49 b,next only to top TCS  which  despite a flat year retains Top Market Cap of US $ 73b !
  • Six Scrips,including all weather favourite TCS (Market Cap US $ 73b) have remained flat
  • Of the Four Banks,only HDFC Bank stays in the Green just about,the rest have lost lot of value from one third to one fifth
  • India Growth Proxy Larsen & Toubro has lost 26% Value
  • Four Pharma Majors have also dropped significantly from 13% to 28%
  •  Three IT Bellweathers saw Wipro down 10%,Infy up 10% and TCS  in between remaining flat
  • Of the Five Auto Majors,the two 2-wheelers are both in the green,two ,Maruti & M & M are flat while Tata Motors has lost 30% value
  •  Three eternal FMCG Favorites,ITC,Asian Paints & HUL have held up
  •    After a Steel Sector Battering past few years,Tata Steel is now catching it’s breath
  • All  Five  Non Bank PSUs continue to flounder ~ BHEL has lost half it’s Value follwed by ONGC down 30% ,Coal India down 19%,NTPC down 13% & Gail down 8%
  • Housing Finance Leader HDFC too has taken a beating of @ 16%
  • Controversial Adani Group’s Adani Ports is down 20%
  • Telecom Leader Bharti Airtel is down 11% despite getting a 4G breather as Reliance’s Jio ,expected to be a sector disruptive force,launch continues to be delayed but should be fully operative by FY 17 year end
  • read more

    Scroll to Top