Outperformance through Equities from a Trading Perspective…..This was the Theme chosen by a leading Broking Group at their 17th Foundation Day Celebrations last night
….and Mr Tulsian and I were invited to address 100+ Invitees on this Theme….Interesting and Intriguing……because it was specifically from a Trading Perspective rather than just an Investment Perspective…..and that they invited ‘Fundamental’ Guys like us for this…..I suppose if the Sensex had run away to 25000 they would have invited ‘Technical’ Guys…only these guys can give you 25 trading calls in a day !….but I sense that they sense too that the Sensex is behaving like ‘Ghajini’…goes off in one direction then pauses as it forgets where it wants to or has to go !….so it was Back to Basics and ‘Fundamentals’ to manage risks
Mr Tulsian spoke before I did…he appears on Stock Channels quite regularly…’Sweet’ Tulsian….he’s known for his affinity to Sugar scrips….feels the Sensex is not fairly valued…but is undervalued at 19000…and that a 2008 Crash like Situation is unlikely to occur again…this year saw a high of 21000+ in January and then a low of 8000 in October…he loves Larsen & Toubro just like I do….who does not ! ?
…I’m 100% sure that those who are selling Larsen & Toubro heavily,FIIs included, and have caused this correction from Rs 2200 levels in November 2010 to current Rs 1650 levels will re-enter again later this year….They’re selling for creating liquidity based on macro concerns…and they have made good to great gains in Larsen & Toubro….and so when they want funds they will sell all or reduce exposure in what they have made gains……it’s not because they think Larsen & Toubro is overpriced…so if Larsen & Toubro looked good at Rs 2200 it looks even better at lower risk price of Rs 1650…that’s basically my view and take on Larsen & Toubro in this correction
….basically I was expected to deliver an elixir in 30 minutes for what will happen in 300 Trading Days in 2011!…..For Inspiration I made all begin with a Prayer with mine being this:
“Dear God,I Pray for a FAT Bank Balance and a THIN Body….Please don’t mix these up like you did last year ! Amen ”
The address,peppered with humour, was well received but the feedback was that half an hour was too less…. guess the Humour did the trick !…….especially when I conveyed what SEBI really stands for !…….sensed they wanted more of it !…..covered a host of areas on a screen presentation…Macro domestic and Global concerns,Market Dynamics,FIIs,Momentum & Liquidity & Sentiment,Value v/s Price,Sensex last ten years and since inception and where is it headed this year and the next,Determining the Risk Range for Trading in Sensex Scrips,Timing & Tactical Strategies,USA & PIIGS,Investor Mistakes & Situations,Buy & Hold V/s Trading…Future Capital Holdings and Pantaloon Retail….Warren Buffett & Peter Lynch….Personal Attributes…..