Tough Macros are now reflecting in Micros…Signs are Ominous for the Sensex at 17500 and Nifty at 5300 levels…Kindly exercise caution and utmost discretion when taking risks,especially on the long side….stop loss may be triggered….don’t be swayed by the record FII Inflows in the first three Months of Calendar year 2012…Going Short has been indicated for awhile now especially at 18500 levels a few weeks ago…Going Short Now at 17500 Sensex,therefore increases the relative risk as Liquidity Flows props up the Sensex….A Safe and Sensible strategy remains to wait and watch and stay on the sidelines…go watch the Movies !…take that short break to the hill station or beach and prepare to enjoy the Summer Vacation…the next Four Days give you a long Weekend Break…this year too may not be any different for May…when you Sell and Go Away !
Global Cues….USA Fed warns yesterday that there may not be a third round of quantitative easing and therefore further Bond buying may be halted…Europe slides further into recession….China Economy decelerates sounding caution…Will it or Won’t it ~ Israel initiate all out Conflict with Iran ! ?…without awaiting USA go ahead !…Watch out for further rise in Oil then !
Domestic Cues…Financial reforms put on Hold as UPA does not have the Lok Sabha numbers and therefore political will to introduce these…more so as new coalition support partnerslike the Samajwadi party which swept the UP Elections last month weild increasing influence…FCCB Maturities this year may witness defaults…Suzlon,a case in point…it’s CFO just resigned…Crisil just announced that 3.4% of the Companies it covers have defaulted last year on debt repayment in FY 12…that’s 188 Companies defaulting…the highest in ten years….Banks Gross NPAs soared to 2.9% of Advances…Weak Economy and Tight Credit have been the reasons…FIIs and FDI Investments are on hold as there is confusion and lack of clarity on GAAR and the retrospective effect going back 42 years ! been announced for Tax Avoidance and Structuring Deals and issues…Vodaphone deliberating to move the United Nations on this….TCS & L & T Infotech facing huge Class Action Suits from ex employees in USA….Petrol Price Rise indicated clearly in the immediate future as Oil Companies crying Foul,Lower Oil Subsidy provided in Union Budget of FY 13 despite increasing Crude Oil Prices…Increasing fear of Government being Anti Business and keen to protect it’s PSU Fiefdoms…Changing Pricing Basis in Coal India not received well and strongly sparking off Minority Shareholder Activism….Over 6000 Sub Brokers have not renewed their SEBI Registration….Many Members of Stock, Currency and Commodity Exchanges, who had expanded vigorously all over India and even Overseas are significantly closing or curtaling Operations to contain Costs….Equity Mutual Funds Schemes seeing lowest in Nine years Inflows and high Redemptions and therefore decreasing Assets Under Management…many Mutual Funds looking for Outright Buyers….Rupee Weakening…Interest rates refusing to ebb…Inflation ebbing may just quickly reverse trend as Oil Prices threaten to rise further…SEBI announces that Stock Exchanges can List but not on their Own Exchange and with several complex riders…Of the Nearly 1400 Private Equity Deals in the five period till 2007,not even 400 have managed an exit….the rest are stuck ,awaiting more bullish and suitable valuation times…..living in Hope