January 2012 has been a Good Month so far

7.1% Absolute Returns on the Conservative Portfolio and a smart 27% Absolute Returns on the Tactical Portfolio !…Sensex has gone up in the the same period by 10% from 15455 to 17000 today

Check out above our Inspiring January 2012 Summarised Performance on our Customised Risk Profiled Fundamental Equity Portfolios…the returns have been even better for those who also indulged in F & O Play

Of course January 2012 has been a kind month and one swallow does not make a summer !….RBI has just announced a 50 basis points CRR Cut this morning…the Rupee has strengthened back to below Rs 50 to the US Dollar…Sensex has regained 17000 and there is a positive bias in the short term  

Join our,Growth Avenues Asset Advisors Pvt Ltd’s Personal Premium Fundamental Advisory Plans to interact with me on your Portfolio … Click Below to know more and download Form

http://www.growthavenues.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&layout=item&id=90&Itemid=176

Feel Free to Call me on +91- 9820162597 or even email me on gaurav@growthavenues.com

Cheers ! 

Gave you 30% + Returns inside a month ! in India Bulls Real Estate and Reliance Communications…if you went long on these in F & O…Contract Lot is 4000 for both… you would have got over 100% ! inside a month….will be discussing 25+ more ideas on Saturday Morning at GAKC…Be there…

Invest Just a Few Morning hours and a Few Thousand to attend  The Potential Multibagger Wealth Creators Programme this Saturday at Growth Avenues Knowledge Centre in Mumbai

For Full Programme Details refer to earlier Blog Below or  you can go online too for Details & Registration to 

http://www.growthavenues.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&layout=item&id=132&Itemid=151

or simply call  Meera  on  9967971875 / 61819133 or Sridhar on 9324670120 / 61819144

Want to Communicate Personally  with me then call me on 9820162597 or email me on gaurav@growthavenues.com

See you’ll on Saturday

Cheers

You can register and even pay for the Programme in Mumbai at GAKC of Growth Avenues Asset Advisors Pvt Ltd both online and offline

Online : www.growthavenues.com/training/registration/ 

Call : Meera ~ +91-9967971875 or +91-22-61819133 or Sridhar ~ +91- 9324670120 or  +91-22-61819144 or even me,Gaurav directly on +91-9820162597

Payment can be made by Cash/Cheque/Direct NEFT or RTGS Transfer

Cheque should be drawn on GROWTH AVENUES ASSET ADVISORS PVT LTD and payable in Mumbai.Cheque or Cash can be send to the office at 21,Kalpataru Point,Kamani Marg,Sion (East),Mumbai 400022 or even directly deposited in the Company’s Bank Current Account with HDFC Bank as stated below for even Direct NEFT/RTGS Transfer…You can even request us to have it collected from any Mumbai address 

Direct Bank to Bank Transfer  by NEFT/RTGS can be effected to

Beneficiary

GROWTH AVENUES ASSET ADVISORS PVT LTD

Bank and Branch

HDFC BANK LTD,Cine Planet, Sion Circle, Sion (E),Mumbai 400 022

Current A/C No  

01632560004428

IFSC Code

HDFC0000163

2012 has dawned on us…Hold out Hope and Keep the Faith….Let’s Make it an Inspiring Year from a Challenging One !….Wishing Health,Happiness and Handsome Gains to All

Hey ! all of You…Son,Rhythm Guitarist and Composer,Varun Parikh and his Band ‘PitchBlack’ are rocking Mumbai tonight 9.30 pm onwards at Cool Chef Cafe at Worli Seaface Coast Guard End…It was a full house the last time…let’s make it a full house this time too !….prelude to bringing in joyously 2012…do come if you can…Cheers !

Season’s Greetings to All of You….Celebrating the Christmas Cheer 

This is from my Photo Archives…..a soothing and inspiring panoramic view from the top of Tea Estates that border the Golf Greens of the Wellington Gymkhana that nestles between Coonoor and Ooty in the Blue Nilgiris Mountain Range in South India ~ a refreshing retreat for Santa too !   

Cheers !

What a Weekend I’ve had !…From Real Reeling Sensex Action on Friday to Reel Action on Saturday…From Celebrating a Birth to attending a Prayer Meeting for a Death !  

Mission Impossible ! ? Sensex declared Ghost Protocol !?…revival from 15491 looking distant

Friday,the RBI announced it’s Mid Quarter Monetary Policy Review…The Sensex then began begging in vain for 15000 to stay away from it…it closed 345 points down at 15491 after initially being nearly 200 points up from Thursday closing…Intensifying Global Pressures are weighing down heavily on India too…Of course I believe in Santa Claus !…but if you think he’s going to revive our Sensex,now that’s a fantasy ! 

…moved from Real Reeling Sensex Action to Reel Action…Last Night caught some great Action at the 11.10 pm late night show at PVR ,Phoenix of Tom Cruise’s latest Mission Impossible : The Ghost Protocol…I love Tom Cruise ~ The Firm ,Mission Impossible Series,Top Gun,Cocktail,A Few Good Men,Jerry Maguire and Valkyrie….The Movie and Tom Cruise lived up to the high expectations of spellbinding superb action….left me wondering why SRK & his Ra-1 failed to measure up in our own backyard….also got me wondering if our own Sensex has been declared Ghost Protocol making any Revival from 15491 and in 2012 a Misssion Impossible !

Shared the Joy of Someone Celebrating Birth of his first child…and Death in a related Family reminded me of Mortality

Then this Weekend was gifted some Lovely Chocolates for a Birth and had to attend a Prayer Meeting for a Death !

When I was Eight years old the Movie ‘Safar’ was released with this legendary Kishore Kumar classic song “Zindagi ka Safar,hai yeh kaisa safar,koi samjha nahin,koi janaa nahin !” picturised on another Superstar Acting Legend of yesteryear Rajesh Khanna…..The late Kishore Kumar is my favourite singer and this is one of my all time favorites…Translated it means who has really understood this Journey of Life…heard it over a thousand times !…and will surely hear it over another thousand times between Birth and Death !…don’t worry…it’s just a manner of speaking !..and I’ll continue blogging !…did I hear “Oh ! God!”…stop echoing my Wife’s sentiments !

One of India’s leading Travel Groups’ Promoter just became a Father for the first time…he was blessed with a Boy and personally came across to deliver some lovely Chocolates to share his Joy and celebrate the Birth

…and this Sunday evening I attended the Prayer Meeting of the doyen in our extended family who passed away a few days ago…a family my neice has married into earlier this year…the grandfather had danced emotionally at the wedding in February earlier this year…at the prayer meeting there was some soulful singing in Gujarati by a professional singing group …the lead lady singer was introducing each song by relating some profound realities of Life and Living…Birth begins with the letter ‘B’ and Death begins with the letter ‘D’…In between is the letter ‘C’…that stands for your ‘C’hoice in how you Live your Life between Birth and Death…Profound indeed

….later when I related this to my sixteen year old daughter ,she quickly chuckled and had my wife and me chuckling too that the ‘C’ could also stand for ‘C’ash !…how much the person has made in Life between Birth and Death and the measure sadly used by this World  to define success !…Wow !…more Profound and closer to reality too !  

Atleast let’s make this Safe Choice for next week…let’s just enjoy the season swaying by singing Christmas Carols !…rather than risk playing the Swaying Sensex

Cheers for the Season !

Markets may be Freaking all out but Thursday night’s Fusion Concert ‘Restless Peace’ with Zakir Hussain on the Tabla,Trilok Gurtu on Drums and what all !,U Srinivas on the Mandolin ,Rakesh Chaurasia on the Flute and Ajay Joglekar on the Harmonium and Keyboard freaked us all out

‘Restless Peace’…what an interesting name to define Fusion Music ! It was a hop,skip and jump from my office at Shanmukhananda Hall in Matunga…8 pm to 10 pm non stop on Thursday Night,December 8,2011

Trilok Gurtu on the Drums and various Percussion Adaptations was simply in his element…Flamboyant Zakir demonstrated why he remains unrivalled on the Tabla…U Srinivas was mesmerising on the mandolin … Rakesh Chaurasia,nephew of Hariprasad Chaurasia was quite good on the Flute and Ajay Joglekar complemented well on the Harmonium and Keyboard  

The Solo’s were outstanding and when Trilok entertained us with some fabulous percussion variations on a Stainless Steel Bucket filled with water or just tapping on a loud speaker in a jugalbandi with Zakir on the Tabla,we were screaming for more

…and when these Musician Maestros in sequence echoed Rakesh’s Flute on the Theme from Clint Eastwood’s “The Good,the Bad and the Ugly’ and even James Bond we were delighted…they played ‘Lotus Feet’ which is a soothing ’Shakti ‘ Track that had us spellbound

…was with Friends…they thought I was asleep in the first hour !….I was actually in a spellbound trance !

Zakir Hussain is the elder son of the legendary Tabla Ustad the late Ustad Allah Rakah Khan….his brothers Taufiq and Fazal Qureshi too are Ustads in their own right…In fact earlier in the year had attended and interacted with Fazal at his Fusion Concert at the Club in February 2011…both Taufiq and Fazal were with me in school

Connected after ages with Ustad Fazal Qureshi & his Experiment with Fusion

Thursday, February 10th, 2011   

…then at 10.15 pm we moved from Fusion to No Fusion Food !….it had to be Madras Cafe at Matunga….the popular,actually legendary South Indian Udipi was packed at this fairly late hour on a weeknight…Vada in Sambhar followed by Raagi Masala Dosa with their in house white butter and Mulga Pudi Powder with Oil and  then a lovely Bisibele Baath…Ooooh !…perfect Meal ending with two stainless steel glasses of  perfect Kadak Filter Coffee..the second one really Kadak !..and a perfect tab…whole of Rs 289 for the four of us,with each having two dishes each atleast !

 Lovely Thursday evening….Lovely Senses of Fusion  followed by Food…and No Sensex !

Cheers !

Is IFCI worth a Billion Dollars !?…Significantly Down at Rs 25 is it a Buy or Bye Bye ! ?

Covered it in detail under Scrip Watch on Company website 

On the face of it IFCI looks inviting at Rs 25…The Networth is over a Billion Dollars at Rs 5100 crs + The Book Value is now over Rs 70…this was also the Share Price when 2011 began as it looked a strong contender to apply for a Banking Licence under the new guidlines that were awaited ….this was also the reason had blogged earlier to consider playing  IFCI at Rs 50 levels through buying Calls

……but the concerns are plenty….can we trust this Book Value of Rs 70+ ? or can the Networth of Rs 5100 + crs be seriously eroded ?

2011 has been another severe reality check year for IFCI on the bourses as the Share Price simply sunk to a recent low of Rs 20 in late November and then bounced back a bit to Rs 25 as New Guidelines for applying for a bank were not in favour of IFCI ,it’s exposures to problem companies like GTL Infra played up and FIIs simply began dumping IFCI on the bourses from July 2011….even Corporate Governance Issues began casting a shadow…The Board of Directors assert in their Report for FY 11 that the quality of Assets is excellent…Reality belies this assertion  

Clearly IFCI cannot survive or function without Government Support…Borrowings of over Rs 19000 crs are largely from the Government directly or from PSUs like LIC and SBI and many banks…Government has even guaranteed borrowings from other sources…These ,alongwith the Networth fund a Loan Book of Rs 13600+ crs at September 2011 and Net Investments of Rs 8000 crs + 

So is IFCI at Rs 25 a Buy or it’s Bye Bye ! ?

Even though the auditors,Chokshi and Chokshi have given a Clean Report for FY 11,2011 has thrown up the danger of rising NPAs and Diminishing Value of Investments…. For more on this click on Scrip Watch on www.growthavenues.com

Ten Years ago I had given IFCI a dubious sobriquet of I F….. C ountry of I ndia !…Then as it revived with Government support,I recommended it very strongly in December in 2006 at Rs 16…it zoomed to Rs 130  inside a year before retracing as the Strategic Investor Bidding Collapsed….In 2010 it again showed buoyancy on great expectations of applying and being granted a Banking Licence under New Guidelines that were awaited….Price again crossed Rs 70…..Then the 2011 Reality Check came in and IFCI has sunk to recnt lows of Rs 20

Now I have to label it I F….. C ountless I nvestors ! …that’s why I have also categorised this Blog under ‘When the Heart Explodes through the helpless Mind ‘ ! 

Christmas Month of December begins with an Interesting Weekend… some Research on FDI in Retail,Jupiter Bio,OnMobile Global,Jain Irrigation,Sensex Earnings….meeting up with  some really Interesting Business Heads In India…Daughter captaining Maharashtra Football Team at the School Nationals in Port Blair….and winding up with some relaxing social interaction

Some Research….

• to thrash Jupiter Biosciences that has sunk from Rs 75 last December to under par Rs 10 this December…will post it soon on company website under Scrip Tease …. a USA based friend had requested to check this fall as he is a hapless shareholder who  is related to the Promoters and feels awkward  asking them about this decimation…Book Value is Rs 125 ! 
• to put OnMobile Global at Rs 66 on Scrip Watch …Morgan Stanley currently has this as a wealth creator idea
• to figure out Jain Irrigation…will shortly put up view on company site….Both Enam and Morgan Stanley recommend it quite strongly at Rs 120 levels
• Sensex 30 Earnings Trends..report soon to be put up on the company website 
• Government’s recent controversial policy announcement for 51% FDI in Multi Brand Retail…checked out Wal Mart and it’s Chinese Operations….Phew ! …they are huge…will out scale simply any competition…will put up a brief note soon on company website highlighting the Pros and Cons

Interesting Meetings with Business Heads… 

Met some really interesting Business Heads in India ….,

• The CFO of a conservative mutual fund…. has decided to enter Derivatives finally
• The CFO of listed real estate company that’s just had a name makeover…opines that the share prices of real estate companies will move in a narrow range for awhile…nothing exciting happening
• A leading behavioural share broker….”your guess is as good as mine” on how the Stock Market will behave in 2012
• Chinese head of the Indian Operations of a leading Hong Kong Financial Services Giant who has entered India through a JV…”Nice to be in India “
•  Foreign Returned Indian Director of a Bill Gates Foundation aided Indian NGO who needs help on Corporate Governance Issues and going about setting up a New Board and how to deal with Interference from a leading Industrialist 
• A leading Expert on Transfer Pricing who had retired very early in life to seek spiritual self….Is Now entering Share Trading for a livelihood !…busy attending trading courses and reading up books on Trading ! Interesting !  
• A leading ex CA Partner of a Big Four Firm who also headed earlier a leading Diamond Group’s Global Operations…has now just entered the Construction business in New Mumbai,near the new Proposed Airport…says Rs 4500/sq feet is cheap…it is really worth Rs 15000/sq ft !….Keep an Eight Year view he asserts and you will gain multifold !…on my wavelength of a contrarion view on Real Estate for the Long Term    

Daughter Captains the u 19 Maharashtra State Football Team….

The 57th School National Games for u 19 Girls Football Event began in Port Blair on December 1,2011….16 year old daughter was appointed the Maharshtra Team Captain and had the honour of  holding the State Flag while leading her Team in at the Opening Ceremony…They thrashed Gujarat  7-0 on Friday,December 2,2011  and now face a tougher opponent Orissa tomorrow who also beat Gujarat 6-0 yesterday in their group…Both Maharashtra and Orissa qualify for the Quarter Final Knock Out Stage

The Journey to Port Blair was exhausting…The Team left the Kolhapur Camp by Haripriya Express Train on Nov 25 for Renikunta,near Tirupati to catch the connecting Madras Express to Chennai on Nov 26 morning…they missed the connection and had to catch a later train….it was raining in Chennai late night when they reached…left on a 60 hour journey for Port Blair by Ship on evening of November 27,2011 by SCI’s MV Harshavardhana….excitement turned to disgust as they were travelling Bunk Class…sleeping was on steel bunk beds….the food was not edible….they survived on biscuits for three days !…….they had mobile phones and monies stolen…daughter’s phone went….we remain in touch through phones of teammates…”Like you see Jail in the Movies,Dad ! ” …A Pity that a listed PSU like SCI runs such a third rate service on their Passenger Ship to Port Blair…..but Port Blair is better…awesome view from the Ship as they came in…and the Opening Ceremony Parade was lovely….daughter says the Games are being covered on DD Sports…told her to enjoy the Games and shirk off any Captaincy Expectations and Pressures….School Prelims begin this week and she will miss a few papers….She’s in Std X and will be appearing in March 2012 for the ICSE Final Examinations….School is thrilled at her achievement as this is the first time in the history of the School that a Girl has been selected for the State Team for the School Nationals conducted by the School Games Federation of India…her poster announcing this has been put up front as one enters the School….feel warm and proud that she continues to make her School & State and Family & Friends proud….like a Business Leader Friend (not part of above people I met) and Father of her schoolmate remarked to me and a few others in our group last night “She is my hero and my inspiration ! ”….well,she is mine too !          

Relaxing Social Interaction…

• Attended the Annual Celebrations on Friday Night of one of India’s Leading Auditing ,Taxation and Consultancy Groups outside the Big Four
• Wound up last night catching up with over 900 members and spouses and some nostalgic numbers like “My Way” by veteran crooner Gary Lawyer and some Fireworks at the Club’s lovely Annual Day Celebrations ….more relaxing as all was on the House !….Cocktails & a Lavish Buffet Spread with Indian,Surti,Continental,Chinese,Italian,Burmese and Tandoor cuisine with several Live Counters and Gary Lawyer and his Band !….the debate is yet out whether the full house was because of everything being on the House or that Gary Lawyer was in the House !   

Am sure that the rest of December will continue in the same interesting vein…and all meetings and leads will convert into good business too !

A Note of Selfishness…..I want Sensex to break 15000 as I see 2012 as a contrarion Year and such a southward movement provide less riskier buying opportunities

However to end with a Note of Optimism…though I have opined recently, after the Sensex broke 16000 more than once in 2011,that it will seek lower levels and break 15000 also,it has gained strong momentum in just three days to move back towards 17000 with Banking leading the way on an expectation of a CRR Cut by RBI this month…… Here’s hoping this Optimism and Sentiment sustains and the Sensex closes 2011 at 17000 +….Leading FIIs have just predicted a moderately bullish 2012 with the Sensex closing over 18000 by next year end December 2012

First Let’s see how December 2011 really pans out !….Echoing the Behaviourial Broker’s sentiment “Your Guess is as Good as Mine !”  

Cheers !