So it’s finally Out…it’s a drought…the short term Monsoon,rather the lack of it, trigger begins to impact the Sensex….I had warned about this on June 24,2009……Click on
Liquidity and Momentum and Pacifying,Assertive and Assuring Government and Experts Voices in India and overseas had kept our Sensex on track for new recent highs…Irrational…given the fact that Markets had run ahead of Fundamentals yet again and the Monsoon factor had been ignored
It’s been an amusing few weeks….signal to noise ratio from the Channels continue to emanate static…..when the Markets kept rising,experts began sprouting out of the media woodwork,boldly justifying it…when they fell,they are justifying this too !
Be warned…when Investment and Merchant Bankers become really active…it’s sucker time again !
Valuations be damned !….Go for the Hype…suckers…Go for the IPOs…suckers….wanna bet Mahindra Holidays will go below Rs 300,it’s issue price ?…it’s 330 right now !…and wanna bet NHPC too will be available below it’s IPO Price of Rs 36 shortly after it gets listed !?
China was down 5% today….This was the trigger…..Sensex,following cue, has crashed 640 points to 14772 as we near closing today
Get Stock Specific with critical weightage to both,relative and absolute Valuations…you’ll be safe…don’t panic that one short term factor of a bad monsoon can destroy your long term portfolio..Lucrative returns continue to beckon in the long term
Now you know why I’ve not been in any hurry to buy in !..To be forced to make Long Term Play decisions in the Immediate Term,so as to not miss fast upmoves, is a sure recipe for expensive buying ….haven’t we all learned that before !?
As I blogged on August 4,2009 that I was not comfortable at Sensex of 16000…it had run up too fast…18 times Current Year Earnings…it needed to correct to 13000 to sustain a healthier move forward with a three year outlook…In this context,I’m comfortable now with this correction…Hope it continues…It would provide cheaper buying opportunities..New Clients should be happy to be in cash as we delayed creating New Portfolios