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Union Budget 2013 ~ India is a BLESSsed Economy…Addressed an audience of 400 on Budget Day

Union Budget 2013 ~ India is a BLESSsed Economy…

Enjoyed on the Budget Day Evening itself Feb 28,2013 addressing and interacting with a well informed audience of 400 on the Union Budget 2013 ~ on how the Government plans to make Money to tackle deficits and how we can ! ~ plan to host a few thoughts of my presentation on the company website www.jsalphaa.com and on this blog ~ covered how FM has cleverly and conveniently balanced the budget ~ also covered  the Forward Trends in Equities &  Indices & Gold & Exchange Rate & how Debts & Deficits are forcing Disinvestments & how the malaise continues on our exchanges and it will be some time before the retail investor comes back,if at all ~ spoke on Liquidity,Sentiment,Momentum and Valuation

🙂 Felt more like a Stand Up Comedian as the audience were in splits on some of the budget and stock market situations I presented…

Union Budget 2013 Review Event
 Cheers !

Ask yourself this ~ Did it really matter to me here in India who won the USA Presidency ? ~ am I better or worse off!?

Ask yourself this ~ Did it really matter to me here in India who won the USA Presidency ? ~ am I better or worse off !? ~does it affect my health,my family,my job or business,my wealth….my stocks ! ? ~ am I really going to advice to get out of Indian IT Space !?

On US Foreign Political or Economic Policy Issues,neither Obama nor Mitt Romney would dare to effect any changes that will affect US Interests

Happy for Obama that he won as incumbent…..and his anti India IT outsourcing stance ,am told by Indian IT Insiders is only a local  appeasement tactic to protect American Jobs,as they really have little choice in the matter as of date ~ call it Catch 22 ~ they want to protect American Jobs but in a leveraged economy and a recessionary environment the economics simply don’t work out  not to outsource ~ having said this the cap on H-1B Visa for highly skilled foreign workers has been dropped by USA from 195000 in 2001 to just 85000 this year ~ Indian IT Companies get round this hurdle by rationalising the team numbers on a project,local US Hiring and doing more work on the Project out of India…of course they have been accused of other ways too !

David Bier,an US immigration policy analyst,wrote in Forbes earlier this Year that Foreign Highly Skilled workers on H -1B Visas create jobs not take them ~ in support,he quoted a 2009 finding by the National Foundation for  American Policy that for every H-1B Visa request it co-related with five new jobs at major firms and more than seven new jobs at firms with less than 5000 employees   !

Though  Indian IT may not be a great Investment Theme that it was in the 1990s and earlier part of the 21st Century when all IT majors,except for  Satyam, were simply great multi bagger pickings !, the IT Story is far from ebbing and I’m not going to advice Clients to move out of this space totally ~or even switch from TCS to Infosys like CLSA thinks should be done !

Make no Mistake,Obama will continue to bully India on both fronts and,I daresay, we shall continue to acquiesce quickly without serious debate justifying US entry on grounds of aiding GDP Growth and creating millions of jobs  and upgrading our Infrastructure with latest technology !  ~ We need to be cautious that while USA promotes their Interests aggressively,they will as they need to survive and recover from a faltering and highly leveraged economy,we need to safeguard our interests ~ I genuinely fear this is not happening  ~ we are opening out more US exposure in Insurance,Retail,Defence,Aviation,Agriculture,Banking,Higher Education,Automobiles and allied sectors without the rigors of  an intelligent debate without premediated bias or prejudice on the long term implications of this read more

One Line Snap Observations on Results of Havells @ Rs 550 & Pipavav @ Rs 81 & Cheviot @ Rs 321 & Suprajit Engineering @ Rs 22

One Line Snap Observations on Results of Havells & Pipavav & Cheviot & Suprajit Engineering

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  • Havells @ Rs 550 ( FV Rs 5) ~ Electrical Equipment ~ 52 wk High/Low Rs 616/Rs 313

“Babu Moshai ! You can’t take my Fans away from me “

~ FY PAT up 20% + at Rs 370 crs that’s now Earning Rs 1 +Crore a Day !

http://www.bseindia.com/stockinfo/anndet.aspx?newsid=08157a09-a6c9-4893-8061-e377dc1f11ad

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  • Pipavav @ Rs 81 ( FV Rs 10) ~ Defence ,Ship Building ~ 52 wk High/Low Rs 93/Rs 51
Battling Order Cancellations ~ Concede it’s a capital intensive and high gestation and expertise business but Deploying Rs 2000 crs to earn just Rs 20 + crs is unacceptable

http://www.bseindia.com/stockinfo/anndet.aspx?newsid=3ca5cfdb-260d-467b-84fb-30b2cf3b1294

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  • Cheviot @ Rs 321 ( FV Rs 10) ~ Jute,Captive Power,Investments ~ 52 wk High/Low Rs 377/Rs 249

Continue to be Impressed

~ Cash Rich ~ No Debt ~ Networth Rs 292 crs that’s a Book Value now @ Rs 650 and that’s PBV below 0.5! ~ Equity Low at Rs 4.51 crs ~ PAT Rs 29 crs ~ EPS Rs 64 that’s PE of 5 ~ Dividend 130%,that’s a yield of 4%

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Cheviot_Company_Ltd_300512_Rst.pdf

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  • Suprajit Engineering @ Rs 22 ( FV Rs 1) ~ Two Wheeler Cables ~ 52 wk High/Low Rs 23/Rs 16

Steady Share Price and Steady Earnings

 ~ Networth Rs 129 crs that’s a Book Value @ Rs 10.75 and that’s PBV of 2 ~ Equity is Rs 12 crs ~ PAT Rs 40 crs ~ EPS Rs 3.3 that’s PE of sub 7 ~ Dividend 65 %,that’s a yield of 3% ~ Capacity to be 150 million by March 2013

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/Suprajit_Engineering_Ltd_290512_Rst.pdf

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