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A Lion’s eye on the Bulls and Bears

“In India, companies may fall sick, but promoters rarely do!”

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Respect your Teachers ~ “It was nice but tiring” expressed my daughter after her first day at school as a stand in teacher

This is what my daughter expressed after her proud first day at her school as a pre summer vacation stand in Biology teacher to Stds 10 to 12 and a PE-Bio Teacher to Std 9

“It was nice but tiring….how can one give 100% to each and every class !?”

She has always respected her Teachers but returned yesterday with even greater respect

She is so excited that she is to teach,albeit only this month, that she has prepared extensively and passionately for each and every topic from Fungi to Genetics using Videos and self made Humorous Presentations

We are so proud of her in her thinking and actions and are grateful to her Biology Teachers and the School Principal for having faith and trust in her to give her this wonderful opportunity to teach these higher standards  ….she just finished appearing for her ISC Std 12 Board Exams herself  last week on March 27,2014 last week and while many of her 18 year old batchmates and  friends were justifiably(some would argue here!) welcoming freedom and letting their hair down in Goa and elsewhere ,this young woman was preparing excitedly to go back and teach in school  and passionately looking forward to it !

“Dad,you know I’m feeling a bit nervous” she revealed in the car while being dropped off to School for her first day of Teaching

I too was filled with Nostalgia and I told her ” Darling,when I gave my first training lecture on Fundamental Analysis and Equity Research at the BSE Training Institute way back in 1990 I too had butterflies in my stomach even though I was confident and knew I would add great value and make the participants enjoy!…it’s been a really great and fulfilling and passionate journey since then and money was never on my mind….you can make a computation mistake but you must be a domain expert on the concepts and on facts”

“Dad,that’s perhaps called ‘Fight or Flight’ syndrome” she explains” Your sympathetic nervous system is activated to respond”….“and it is part of Biology too!” she cheerfully tells me

This William Arthur Ward quote came to my mind instantly which I conveyed to her “The mediocre teacher tells. The good teacher explains. The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires.”

May Goddess Saraswati,the Goddess of Learning and Wisdom and Arts bless her eternally

Way to Go Young Woman !

Who & How Harvard Rejects ~ A Stimulating Debate

Who & How Harvard Rejects ~ A Stimulating Debate

This is a stimulating debate on who and how Harvard Rejects….especially check out the responses and the replies too to these….enjoyed reading the various views,especially a profound statement in the the response of Charles Kulig :

“ Such is the value in death for those things which we struggle so hard to achieve in life.”

He said this of  a Harvard Diploma in a frame at an estate sale of the deceased .It was labelled as thrash by his children !…a bored teenager told him to just take it if he wanted to !

Is Harvard the ‘Be It and End It of All’ ?


Ask yourself this ~ Did it really matter to me here in India who won the USA Presidency ? ~ am I better or worse off!?

Ask yourself this ~ Did it really matter to me here in India who won the USA Presidency ? ~ am I better or worse off !? ~does it affect my health,my family,my job or business,my wealth….my stocks ! ? ~ am I really going to advice to get out of Indian IT Space !?

On US Foreign Political or Economic Policy Issues,neither Obama nor Mitt Romney would dare to effect any changes that will affect US Interests

Happy for Obama that he won as incumbent…..and his anti India IT outsourcing stance ,am told by Indian IT Insiders is only a local  appeasement tactic to protect American Jobs,as they really have little choice in the matter as of date ~ call it Catch 22 ~ they want to protect American Jobs but in a leveraged economy and a recessionary environment the economics simply don’t work out  not to outsource ~ having said this the cap on H-1B Visa for highly skilled foreign workers has been dropped by USA from 195000 in 2001 to just 85000 this year ~ Indian IT Companies get round this hurdle by rationalising the team numbers on a project,local US Hiring and doing more work on the Project out of India…of course they have been accused of other ways too !

David Bier,an US immigration policy analyst,wrote in Forbes earlier this Year that Foreign Highly Skilled workers on H -1B Visas create jobs not take them ~ in support,he quoted a 2009 finding by the National Foundation for  American Policy that for every H-1B Visa request it co-related with five new jobs at major firms and more than seven new jobs at firms with less than 5000 employees   !

Though  Indian IT may not be a great Investment Theme that it was in the 1990s and earlier part of the 21st Century when all IT majors,except for  Satyam, were simply great multi bagger pickings !, the IT Story is far from ebbing and I’m not going to advice Clients to move out of this space totally ~or even switch from TCS to Infosys like CLSA thinks should be done !

Make no Mistake,Obama will continue to bully India on both fronts and,I daresay, we shall continue to acquiesce quickly without serious debate justifying US entry on grounds of aiding GDP Growth and creating millions of jobs  and upgrading our Infrastructure with latest technology !  ~ We need to be cautious that while USA promotes their Interests aggressively,they will as they need to survive and recover from a faltering and highly leveraged economy,we need to safeguard our interests ~ I genuinely fear this is not happening  ~ we are opening out more US exposure in Insurance,Retail,Defence,Aviation,Agriculture,Banking,Higher Education,Automobiles and allied sectors without the rigors of  an intelligent debate without premediated bias or prejudice on the long term implications of this read more

Blog Viewer Queries and my responses…..Birla Power Solutions at Rs 1….Tulsyan NEC at Rs 46…..Marg at Rs 90+,Sanghvi Movers at Rs 110+,NIIT Tech at Rs 180+….Sabero Organics at Rs 97 +……Deccan Gold at Rs 20+…Garnet Constructions at Rs 12

Blog Viewer Queries

  • Birla Power at Rs 1
  • Tulsyan NEC at Rs 46
  • Marg at Rs 90+
  • Sanghvi Movers at Rs 110+
  • NIIT Tech at Rs 180+ 
  • Sabero Organics at Rs 97 +
  • Added later…..Deccan Gold at Rs 20+
  • Added later…Garnet Constructions at Rs 12

Thought I would give my brief observations on all of the above queries from blog viewers… reproducing both viewers queries and my brief responses  as this seperate blog post for wider and easy viewing


BSReddy Says:

May 29th, 2011 at 7:34 pm 

Dear Sir ,
What about Birla Power Solution Ltd ,which is near Rs 1 /

 Gaurav Parikh Says:
May 29th, 2011 at 9:55 pm

Hi B R Reddy…thanks for your response…this specific blog post listed ten scrips between 20 and 30 and what you think they would be in 2012 if sensex is between 20k and 30k….A few years ago I had cautioned on Birla Power Solutions….I had a quick relook at it at par Rs 1 as this is the FV too …..Volumes are currently 15 lakh shares though average six month daily volumes are 75000 shares…. 52 week high/low is Rs 2/Rs 1…but margins and profits are very low…profits are in a few crs though sales crossed Rs 230 crs last year and will have crossed Rs 250 crs for FY 2011…amusingly it declared a 1:5 Bonus last year as well as a dividend of 7.5%…it carries debt of over Rs 100 crs while funds tied up in Debtors and Inventories last year aggregated over Rs 175 crs..Sales were Rs 238 crs….currently manufacturing portable gensets and engines for gensets it now plans to enter the field of power generation through two subs Birla Energy Infra Ltd and Birla Urja Ltd…it needs funds…has constantly….has raised Authorised Capital to Rs 425 crs….With Profitability in single digit Rs crs and Equity at Rs 215 crs,don’t expect any dividend for FY 11 that just passed….if they do foolishly declare one,they will have to dive into GDR proceeds of earlier years to distribute,if any are yet available….while I feel the downside is 75 paise,any uptick from here will be more on momentum,hype,sentiment and anticipation and blind faith in a Birla Company rather than on fundamentals…Yash Birla Group companies do not command much respect or premium on the bourses or in business…another of his group companies is Birla Shloka ….it is just Rs 15…it has a 52 week high of Rs 94 and the FPO in Jan 2010 was at Rs 50 for a FV Rs 10 share….if you wish to make monies in Birla Power, don’t depend on fundamentals to support upmoves from Rs 1….more likely on collective hype and hope…Cheers !


May 30th, 2011 at 3:50 pm  

whats your view on tulsyan NEC

Gaurav Parikh Says:
May 31st, 2011 at 12:05 pm 

Amit……Tulsyan NEC suffered from a very high Debt…over Rs 220 crs last year from a Total Capital Employed of Rs @Rs 285 crs…recent 2:1 Rights Issue at Rs 49.50 will triple Equity to Rs 15 crs and move Networth to Rs 120 crs…this will reduce Debt Equity towards 2:1…..Consolidated Turnover is Rs 876 crs for FY 11 but bottomline is a mere Rs 9 crs because of the high Interest outflow of over Rs 32 crs…they also faced huge Power cuts…40% in FY 10…affected capacity utilisation…they also faced some price hurdle to source sponge iron….they have since bought out a 35000 MT Sponge Iron Manufacturer Chitrakoot and are setting up a 35KV Thermal Power Station…Steel sales account for near Rs 700 crs of the turnover…rest is poly packaging synthetic division sales…it is a dividend paying company…65% + equity is held by the Promoters….I see little downside from here….Trading Volumes are low….would keep it as a ScripWatch rather than ScripSelect right now…Interestingly Market Cap is only @ Rs 70 crs on enhanced capital with share price in the mid Rs 40s levels…it remains a small company in this sense…sold 1.5 lakh ton of Steel and @ 12000 t on Packaging…has over 1500 employees …..will get re-rated only when Debt levels drop significantly to Rs 100-Rs 150 crs range and therefore Debt/Equity to 1:1….Keep a watch …..Cheers read more

Educomp Solutions at Rs 570 (FV Rs 2)…Educate yourself on Educomp before you conclude that the best solution is to or not to play it !

On January 22,2009 I had blogged on Educomp Solutions after it had plummetted from Rs 2100 levels to below Rs 1400 on a  FV Rs 10 share on ‘Daily Pioneer’ expose

Educomp’s Share Price Slumps as Bears orchestrate a Mauling

From October 27,2009,the Share Quotes are on a FV of Rs 2 after a split from FV Rs 10 to FV Rs 2 was announced in August 2009

Despite the adverse media bashing and a host of controversies that surrounded Educomp Solutions,the Share Price shot up inside Nine months by nearly 300%  in 2009 to over Rs 5000 in the first week of October 2009….it closed cum split on October 26,2009 at Rs 4705 and opened at Rs 950 the next day ex split….since then it has been downhill dropping to Rs 450 levels in the last week of May 2010…currently it quotes at Rs 570…this would read as Rs 2850 cum split,yet twice the level from where it had collapsed in January 2009 on controversies

The reason I blog on this is that I’ve just received a very adverse blog response on this Company…I have not approved it for viewing on the blog as it directly accuses and casts aspersions on the Company’s Promoter and Top Management without any real evidence or proof….levelling charges of fudging and faking accounts,widescale bribing,laundering and fooling schools and education societies….moreover the person does not have the courage to put his name 

However,if you do indulge in Trading in Educomp Solutions,do understand the Risks associated with doing so…The Share Price has shown abnormal volatility in the past two years as detailed above…while this presents dramatic opportunities for insiders,it can be tragic for those caught on the wrong side of the road 

If Corporate Governance Issues continue to crop up,sooner or later Educomp will have a lot to answer to

In FY 10 it earned Rs 218 crs…that’s an EPS of @ Rs 25 on an Equity of Rs 19 crs (FV Rs 2)….yet it declared an interim dividend of Rs 1 (50%) and Final Dividend of Rs 1.75(87.50%)…that’s Rs 2.75 Dividend…that’s a payout of barely above 10% of what it earned !….This is curious that it rewards shareholders who own the company with just Rs 23 crs,while other stakeholders like Lenders are rewarded with Rs 32 crs as Interest and the Government with Rs 153 crs in Taxes !….Q1 FY 11 it has netted Rs 44 crs…so this year too an EPS of over Rs 20 is on the cards…at Rs 570,this is quoted under 30 earnings multiple read more

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