Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop !

Wow! A Full House NSE Training Fundamental Workshop yesterday !

Seems to get bigger & better every time !

Did the first one on August 8,2015 and had blogged on it  as linked below

Interesting Interaction at the NSE Equity Fundamental Training Workshop

Sunday, August 16th, 2015

Did this one too on “Interpretation of Financial Statements for Stock Analysis” under NSE’s Rapid Series at their NSE BKC Complex

@ 30 Participants,both genders aged 22 to 58 from leading Broking Firms,Corporates,Banks and even Individuals who had come on dot and stayed till 8 pm ! expecting to learn how to read financial statements and  market dynamics to assess risks and opportunities in Indian Equities

Common Question right from Manish Shah,who introduced himself  to me in the lift going up to the Class ” How are the Markets Looking “? ~ “Where will the Sensex & Nifty head in the short term”?

Had taken a Bull along ! really !…a smaller version of the Wall Street one….told the class I love four animals…Elephants (Lord Ganesha),Lions (My Zodiac Sign),Tortoise(Good Luck & of course Bulls (I’m always one!)….and you’ll always find them on my office desk !…in fact four bulls of various sizes !…and clients know my market view on simply seeing how the bulls are placed !…if facing them straight up  (↑)  as they sit across me,I’m very bullish…if slanted ( ⁄ )towards them,I’m bullish…slant inclination reveals how much !….if a horizontal view (↔ ) then indicates market will remain flat to rangebound and if the bulls face me vertically (↓ ) I’m bearish !….and slant facing me shows intensity of being bearish !

That got a few knowing laughs from the participants and set off the mood for the Workshop with humour being interspersed right through

Interacted on the Sensex Dynamics right from base year 1978 and in the last 20 years from November 1,1995 to October 30,2015 when despite nearly half of the @ 4850 trading days saw the Sensex close negatively the Sensex ran up over 650% !…but is that enough!…..the Opportunities & Threats that were clearly visible during the years right from 1991 when Modern Reforms set in to 2001 when Markets had bottomed  out on the ICE Age Melting to the Sharp drop in Interest rates from 14% to 7% in and around 2004 to post Lehman 2008 levels of 8000 in October 2008 and March 2009….showed them from current Sensex of 26657 how to assess fundamentally where we could be heading and the risks associated….discussed Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing and therefore the need for Fundamental Analysis and therefore the need to Interpret Financials & therefore the need to assess Value vs Price  & therefore this Workshop  ! read more

SKS Microfinance drops 20% to Rs 360 today as not in RBI’s shortlist of 10 to be granted mini bank licenses

SKS Microfinance lost 20% in early morning trade on NSE dropping to lower circuit at Rs 360 before recovering to Rs 390.Previous Closing was Rs 450

This  defining fall was the consequence of not having made it to the RBI List of 10 lending entities shortlisted from 72 applicants to become mini banks for advancing to the unbanked and small farmers and other segments that do not receive funding from the bigger banks.Interestingly eight of the ten short listed are microlenders

I have never been a fan of SKS Micro and it’s Promoters and had warned in 2010 to avoid the obscenely priced IPO  in the price band of Rs 850 to Rs 985 more so as it involved an unhealthy element of Offer for Sale by Sequoia Capital.Also was critical of  Promoter Vikram Akula’s mindset too in profiting by himself exiting a large shareholding at an obscene price prior to the issue.Here’s the story I posted in 2010.The share Price collapsed after the IPO and even dropped below Rs 100 to Rs 90 in 2011 and even lower to Rs 54 in 2012 before recovering smartly to touch a 52 Week High of Rs 590 on July 31,2015

I have an Issue…actually several…..with the SKS Microfinance Issue !….Intentions may be Noble but Actions are Profit Motivated and not singularly Selfless !

Thursday, July 29th, 2010 Interestingly RBI has not even shortlisted Vikram Akula’s Vaya Finserve that he started after exiting SKS Micro ….Interesting are also the parameters by which the applicants were assessed as deserving….financial soundness,business plan and fit and proper status as conveyed by external agencies.I suspect it must have been the last criteria weightage that saw the exclusion of  the above Also a leading Broking House erred in haste when recommending SKS Micro to clients just recently setting a target of over Rs 700 for it.Now they have come out within days to state that in light of SKS Micro not being shortlisted the premium valuations will reduce and they have reduced the price  target to just over Rs 400 ! implying that  Rs 300 + in their target of over Rs 700 was based on the assumption and expectation of SKS Micro getting the mini bank licence  !….they should have waited for this confirmation or warned that the recommendation was only for aggressive players wishing to bet that SKS Micro would get the mini bank license. Now they are wiser as all are !…wonder what their Clients who hold SKS Micro must be doing with their holding…holding in hope yet or exiting as relative valuations for this Rs 1000+ crs Net worth company are  20+ PE and 4.5 PBV ! ? SKS Microfinance will find it increasingly difficult to compete with those who get the Mini Bank License as the latter will have access to lower cost and larger capital from the banks and many of them are promoted or supported by Big Entities

Value Protects in Inefficient & Wildly Swinging Scary Stock Markets

Value will Protect in a Wildly Swinging Market !

How Terribly Inefficient our Stock Markets are !

The Share Price Swings in Small & Mid Caps can be equally exhilarating and devastating !…depends !

And all this happens when the Sensex and Nifty move in a very narrow range !

Down ! Down ! Down!

Look at Amtek Auto’s Crash yesterday and continuing today !…all because the Exchanges announced that it will no longer be traded in the F & O Segment 

It was Rs 141.50 on August 17,2015.Yesterday August 19,2015 it crashed  by nearly 40% and Rs 50 to hit a low of  Rs 78 before closing at Rs 89 !

And this morning August 20,2015  it crashed another 40% to a low of Rs 50.70 before now recovering to Rs 67 levels !  

So the fall in three days from a High of Rs 141.50 to a low of Rs 50.70 is 64% erosion of market cap  from Rs 3100 crs to Rs 1100 crs in just one big Breath ! with High Volumes but low Delivery %….SCARY !

And this is a Company where the Promoters Dhams & Their Companies own 48.98%,FPIs like Goldman Sachs & Macquarie hold 18.83%,Domestic Institutions like LIC hold 16.47% as on June 30,2015.

There were over 46000 shareholders on this date.Spare a thought for them !…and for those who were long in F & O !

…and Spare a Curse for those Broking Houses and FPIs who recommended this Scrip !

Did not all know that the Group is struggling with over Rs 25000 crs in debt !….Wise after the Event ! 

 

Date

Open

High

Low

Close

WAP

No. of 
Shares

No. of 
Trades

Total Turnover

% Deli. Qty to Traded Qty

17/08/15

135.00

141.50

127.55

133.10

133.54

11,27,928

15,415

15,06,28,023

17.63

18/08/15

133.25

134.25

127.40

128.55

129.54

5,32,507

5,649

6,89,83,199

23.42

19/08/15

126.90

126.90

78.00

89.00

100.86

35,47,065

26,846

35,77,46,778

36.40

Look at Stampede Capital  !

Rs 650 two days ago after an all time high of Rs 800 on August 6,2015 and down on two consecutive lower circuits of 20% yesterday at Rs 494 and even today to Rs 406 on BSE !….CRAZY !…and SCARY!….just over 2700 shareholders,one being Superstar Amitabh Bacchan (entered a year and a half ago picking up One Cr shares at Rs 88 & similar at  Rs 110 levels), at June 30,2015 in what is clearly a highly controlled scrip

Look at Ansal Buildwell ! Big Up & Down Swings in three days ! 

Clearly Insider trading Involved or can the long positions be defended as aggressive risk taking based in favourable anticipation of a Supreme Court Judgement that was announced yesterday on the Ansal Brothers for the Uphaar Cinema Hall Tragedy that took 59 lives 18 years ago in a devastating Fire !

On August 17,2015 the Share Price was Rs 123.On August 18,2015,just a day before Supreme Court Order the Price flared to Rs 148.30.Yesterday it closed up on upper circuit at Rs 163.10 ! as Supreme Court announced merely a Fine of Rs 60 crores on the Brothers and no Jail Sentence !….and today it’s on lower circuit at Rs 146.80 nearing noon !…and the rise was being justified as Market Cap just @ Rs 100 crs and land bank value worth Rs 10000 crs !       read more

L&T Fin up 8% at Rs 72 on Warburg Pincus eyeing 25% Stake~Great if true!

L & T Finance surges up over 8% & past Rs 72 today after Economic Times reported  of Warburg Pincus eyeing a 25% Stake in it !

Great if true!…after all L & T Finance Management has been pretty lethargic ,I daresay, in skillfully leveraging the Larsen & Toubro Brand to scale greater heights in Operations that would have been reflected in the company’s Share Price soaring and sustaining past Rs 100 already instead of just flattering to deceive.Interaction by my Team with the Top Management at their Analyst Meets did not elicit great confidence ,optimism and hope

If Warburg Pincus does come in with a sizeable and influencing stake  one can expect more dynamism and rising expectation that they would do wonders with L & T Finance that they did in Capital First that they acquired from the Biyani Group

Warburg Pincus had acquired the listed Future Capital Holdings from the Biyani Group at Rs 162 in late 2012 and renamed it Capital First.Inside just over two and a half years the Share Price of Capital First  has soared to Rs 411 ,that’s over 150% from Rs 162.It recorded a high of Rs 464 in April 2015

I had blogged twice on this in November & December 2012

FCH now Capital First zooms to Rs 225 + with Warburg Pincus Group as new controlling shareholders at Rs 162 and Biyani out !

Thursday, November 29th, 2012Future Capital Holdings is now Capital First and it zooms to Rs 190 today as Warburg Pincus & Group acquire it from the Biyani Group and other Shareholders at Rs 162! Monday, November 19th, 2012

L & T Finance has issued a clarification sought by the Exchanges that in my experienced view reads like there is some definitive dialogue happening on this front taking place     

L & T Finance also quotes in the Derivatives Segment on NSE under L&TFH with a Contract Size of 4000 shares.July Calls for a strike Price of Rs 72.50 last traded at Rs 2.65.

Disclaimer : My Clients & I have an interest in L & T Finance 

VLS Finance @ just Rs 36 because of a colourful past !~Relax it has Relaxo Footwears!

Promoted way back in 1986 by the  Mehrotra Family of Delhi, VLS Finance @ Rs 36 (Rs 10) has had a very colourful past !

A candid conversation ,which I had,with one of India’s top Bureaucrats based in New Delhi ,since deceased, in the 1990’s  was peppered with really aggressive and loud colourful language by him when it came to the VLS Group and it’s Promoters

In 1994 the Share Price of VLS Finance had recorded a high of Rs 855 !….yes Rs 855 !….. before crashing into oblivion to Rs 2 levels by 2003 !  

But Relax it ‘s Resurrecting through Relaxo Footwears !

…….but should a Minority Shareholder really Relax or should one Buy in? 

Relaxo Footwears ( FV Rs 1) is @ Rs 900 from Rs 800 a month ago and has declared a 1: 1 Bonus with Record Date of July 2,2015

VLS Finance’s Audited Consolidated Book Value is Rs 60+ as on March 31,2015  while Adjusted Book Value is Rs 180+ based on Current Valuations of the Non Current Quoted Investments of which Relaxo Footwears itself constitutes over 70% of the Value in the Quoted Holdings….assuming all such Investments  have been carried over from FY 14  with more added

In fact  Consolidated Non Current Investments at Cost have climbed from Rs 168 crs on March 31,2014 to Rs 211 crs on March 31,2015

The Haircut is a huge 80% between the Adjusted Book Value and the current market price

In fact the VLS Group holds 14.33 % of the Equity of  Relaxo Footwear as of March 31,2015 :

  • VLS Finance holds 4523528 Equity Shares of FV 1  => 7.54 % of the Relaxo Footwears Equity
  • VLS Securities( subsidiary & NSE Member) holds 4075000 Equity Shares of FV Rs 1 => 6.79% of the Relaxo Footwears Equity   
Promoters ,the Dua Family, of Relaxo Footwears hold 75% of the Equity in their Company We do not know the cost of the holding by VLS Securities but can safely assume that the  Consolidated Adjusted Book Value will be much higher than computed above if the holdings of VLS Securities too are considered.This means the Haircut is much higher than 80%  Interestingly VLS Finance seems to specialise in Footwear Domain Knowledge with it’s huge investment exposure to Relaxo Footwears and it’s Clientele that includes leading Leather and Footwear Manufacturers,Mirza,Liberty & Lakhani

The intriguing observation is that VLS appears to have invested in many listed  companies where it also has a Consultancy Client Relationship !

VLS Finance has shed it’s NBFC Status and is now a member of both NSE & BSE through group companies

Over a Month ago, I had covered it in greater detail on the SCRIP WATCH Module of my company website when it was lower @ Rs 41 when Relaxo Footwears was @ Rs 800…check it out

VLS Finance @ Rs 41 ~ Sheds NBFC Tag as Stocks Beckon ~ 20-May-2015

Now when Relaxo Footwear has moved up by 12.5 % in a month from Rs 800 to Rs 900 levels ,we see VLS Finance move down by 10% from Rs 41 to Rs 36 !

Is it that the Past of VLS Finance remains a Heavy Stone to bear ?

Whatever ! ….VLS Finance may simply not be bothered by it’s Low Market Price !…..It’s making Life Changing Gains on Relaxo Footwear,albeit notional as of now….that should keep the Promoters and Top Management happy

…..why bother about Minority Shareholders now  when it has never done so in it’s history ! read more

Super ! 23 Participants with 40 Stock Selections for 2015 in the TAP GAP Poser

Super ! 23 Participants with 40 Stock Selections for 2015 in the TAP GAP Poser

TAP GAP Poser End 2014 ~Which Indian Company Will Be A Big Share Price Winner In 2015?
December 15th, 2014

I shall shortly pick a gauravblog hamper Winner or maybe two where I see maximum gain potential in 2015 from the following

Participant wise

Sr No

Participant

Recommendation

Date of Recommendation

Price in Rs when recommended

1

Sumit Khanna

Subros

15.12.2014

67.85

PTC India Financial Services Ltd

17.12.2014

56.4

2

Jigam Gandhi

Wendt India

15.12.2014

2000

3

Sandeep Gahandule

Nathbiogene

16.12.2014

130.55

Prima Plastic

17.12.2014

56

JM Financial

18.12.2014

47.6

4

Bhaskar

IPCA Labs

16.12.2014

723.55

5

Nitin

Ajanta Pharma

16.12.2014

2528.65

Atul Auto

16.12.2014

601

6

Anand

Raj Rayon

17.12.2014

0.66

Jubilant Life Sciences

30.12.2014

119.95

7

Prasad

Nbcc

18.12.2014

792.05

Capital First

30.12.2014

353.4

TV Today

30.12.2014

215.2

8

Rohit

 Adani Enterprises

20.12.2014

452.05

9

Prasad Shetty

Multibase

21.12.2014

227.9

10

Kushal Shah

MCX

22.12.2014

838.95

Jet Airways

22.12.2014

389.7

11

Rajan

Motherson Sumi Systems

22.12.2014

440.2

12

Hemant

NETWORK 18

22.12.2014

66

Intellect Design

22.12.2014

75.6

Pipavav Defence

22.12.2014

39.75

13

Raj

Odyssey Technologies

22.12.2014

33.65

14

Shiva

Granules India

23.12.2014

777

Mayur Uniquoters

23.12.2014

415.4

SpiceJet

23.12.2014

19.3

15

Abhay Tewari

Suzlon Energy

23.12.2014

13.45

16

Pushkar Prasad

Freshtrop Fruits

24.12.2014

115.9

17

Dhiren

Tata Sponge

26.12.2014

680

18

N Sri

Deccan Gold Mine

28.12.2014

42.95

19

Sameer

Spicejet

30.12.2014

17.95

Deccan Gold Mine

30.12.2014

44

Muthoot Capital Services

30.12.2014

207.15

20

Shahzad V

Engineers India Ltd

31.12.2014

229.75

AkzoNobel

31.12.2014

1384.1

Aries Agro

31.12.2014

117.4

21

Kiran

Vidhi Dyestuffs

31.12.2014

17.16

22

Vishal Kejriwal

CCL Products

1.1.2015

170.95

Oriental Carbon Chemical Ltd

1.1.2015

361.55

Hinduja Global Solutions Ltd

1.1.2015

631.75

23

Rudra Tandan

Ram Ratna Wires

2.1.2015

48

Foseco

2.1.2015

1227.55

Alphabetical Scripwise

Sr No. Scrip Recommended for 2015 Price in Rs when recommended Participant
1 Adani Enterprise 452.05 Rohit
2 Ajanta Pharma 2528.65 Nitin
3 Akzo Nobel 1384.1 Shahzad V
4 Aries Agro 117.4 Shahzad V
5 Atul Auto 601 Nitin
6 CCL Products 170.95 Vishal Kejriwal
7 Capital First 353.4 Prasad
8 Deccan Gold 42.95 N Sri
9 Deccan Gold 44 Sameer
10 Engineers Ind 229.75 Shahzad V
11 Foseco India 1227.55 Rudra Tandan
12 Freshtrop Fruit 115.9 Pushkar Prasad
13 Granules India 777 Shiva
14 Hinduja Global 631.75 Vishal Kejriwal
15 Intellect Design Arena 75.6 Hemant
16 Ipca Labs 723.55 Bhaskar
17 JM Financial 47.6 Sandeep Gahandule
18 Jet Airways 389.7 Kushal Shah
19 Jubilant Life 119.95 Anand
20 MCX India 838.95 Kushal Shah
21 Mayur Uniquoter 415.4 Shiva
22 Motherson Sumi 440.2 Rajan
23 Multibase India 227.9 Prasad Shetty
24 Muthoot Cap 207.15 Sameer
25 NBCC 792.05 Prasad
26 Nath Bio-Genes 130.55 Sandeep Gahandule
27 Network 18 66 Hemant
28 Odyssey Technologies 33.65 Raj
29 Oriental Carbon 361.55 Vishal Kejriwal
30 PTC India Financial Services 56.4 Sumit Khanna
31 Pipavav Defence 39.75 Hemant
32 Prima Plastics 56 Sandeep Gahandule
33 Raj Rayon Ind 0.66 Anand
34 Ram Ratna Wires 48 Rudra Tandan
35 SpiceJet 17.95 Sameer
36 SpiceJet 19.3 Shiva
37 Subros 67.85 Sumit Khanna
38 Suzlon Energy 13.45 Abhay Tewari
39 TV TodayNetwork 215.2 Prasad
40 Tata Sponge 680 Dhiren
41 Vidhi Dyestuffs 17.16 Kiran
42 Wendt 2000 Jigam Gandhi

Note :

  1. Sandeep Gahandule who just won the hamper for Alphageo’s spectacular 720% run in 2014 has contributed three selections for 2015 this time too
  2. Anand,who ran neck to neck with Sandeep till November 2014,when his low priced Rs 7 YBrant  was up against Alphageo has yet again given one really low priced selection Raj Rayon of just 66 paise !
  3. Deccan Gold & Spicejet occur twice as they constitute selections from two different participants
  4. Prices at which Recommended have either been provided by the Participant when making the Reco and reflect the current market price at the time or where they have not stated the price,the last price when they made the reco has been sourced from the BSE & NSE
  5. Most have not given targets for 2015 Selections but the four selections that have been given targets and all are  over 100% + except one,are as follows : Freshtop Fruits Rs 250,PTC India Financial Services Rs 90,Subros Rs 150 and Tata Sponge Rs 1500+
  6. Adani Group finds representation but none from the Ambani Groups ~ perhaps realisation that Reliance Ind has been a losing 5 year Investment thus far and ADAG Companies have struggled
  7. Tata Sponge is the lone entry from the Tata Group.
  8. Media and Aviation have two each in Network 18 and TV Today and Jet Airways & Spicejet respectively
  9. Pharma & Auto Ancilliaries & NBFCs &  IT  & Speciality & Commodity Chemical Sectors are well represented
  10. Can see a few potential turnaround selections as well as a few that have already run up huge in 2014
  11. Tea & Coffee Beverages & Renewable Energy & Defence are represented but none from direct Power,Telecom or Real Estate or Retail
  12. No Bank & no Oil & Gas Major  & No visible Large Cap ! but Three Selections are also traded in the Derivatives Segment,namely,Adani Enterprise,Engineers India & Motherson Sumi

Going to be an interesting few days filtering all the above