Edelweiss at 52 Week High Levels of Rs 60+ ~ What is Broking!?

Edelweiss at 52 Week High Levels of Rs 60+ ~ What is Broking!?  ….BSE showed over 8 lakh shares volume today and price stability at @ Rs 61

Edelweiss ~ A Royal Flower in the Swiss Alps or a Lovely Classic Song from The Sound of Music or just another Indian Broking & Financial Firm !?

It’s a No Brainer that Heady Market Day spells  great times for Broking Firms or Groups

Edelweiss has seen a High of Rs 1600 + in 2007 on a FV Rs 5 share….then came a split to FV Rs 1 in 2010 and a 1:1 Bonus Issue  in August 2010….so the high gets adjusted to Rs 160+

First many Employees,including Excustive Director Himanshu Kaji took the ESOP at Rs 33 in April 2014….then last week on June 12,2014 Rakesh Jhunjhunwala picked up One Crore Shares at Rs 55 in a BSE Deal with Greater Pacific Capital (GPC) Mauritius I & III LLC selling off and exiting completely now their eight and a half year stake after a part exit in 2010

Promoters Rashesh  Shah & Others held 37.15% of the Equity of Rs 76.90 crs held by nearly 131000 Shareholders at March 31,2014….of this Promoter holding 5.66 % are pledged or encumbered (2.10% of Total Equity)

FIIs held 22.58% of the Equity on March 31,2014.This needs to be adjusted for the GPC Mauritius Sale in June 2014…However in a May 17,2014 Meeting the Board has approved FII holding cap to be increased from 28% to 40% 

Here are the FY 14 Results….Consolidated Topline  was Rs 2534 crs with Bottomline at Rs 220 crs….EPS was Rs 2.86.Networth was Rs 2729 crs with Reserves at Rs 2657 crs and Investment in Company’s Own Shares deducted from Share Capital & Premium….this Investment is through Rs 160.81 crs lend to Employees Trusts which has been used to buy Shares for later alottment under ESOP…The Book Value is Rs 35.5

Relative Valuations at Share Price of Rs 61 give a PE of 21 and a PBV of 1.7

In April the  board approved a buyback from the Open Market upto Rs 45/share and an aggregate of Rs 145 crs….This Buy Back commenced on May 5,2014

The Own Capital Employed at March 31,2014 was Rs 2729 crs  with most of it deployed in Credit Activity that included Retail Finance

Segmentation is into 4 Revenue Streams ~ Credit incl Retail Finance most of it in Housing Finance,Commodities,Financial Markets including Asset Management & Life Insurance….Most of the Revenues ,Rs 1885 crs to be specific ,are from Capital or Fund Based Business….Finance Costs were Rs 1540 crs in FY 14 read more

Economic Times quotes me when covering L & T Finance Share Price Movement being under the Lens before Offer For Sale Announcement by Parent L & T

Economic Times has quoted me in their Mumbai Print edition today on Page 11 on one of my fears on Insider Trading and the coinicidence of the parent L & T announcing the Offer For Sale in L & T Finance Shares on the same day as the Scrip began trading in the F & O Segment on BSE and NSE

The weblink to their coverage is  => Swing in L & T Fin’s Share Price ahead of OFS under Lens 

So Yes,Hemant  and Sumit,the market traders and brokers and mainstream pink paper media and even the regulator SEBI is quite aware of the Corporate Governance  Issues that L & T has stirred up with this OFS and which I had highlighted through Five Questions posed in my recent blog on the same to which you’ll had responded as linked below

L & T Finance drops below Rs 80 yesterday ~ Insider Trading!?

Friday, March 14th, 2014

The Issue is will SEBI do something about it…at least investigate it !?  

And probably just a coincidence that the Chairman of  parent Larsen & Toubro,Mr A M Naik and his CEO Mr Venkataramanan sold L & T Shares worth Rs 28.30 crs and Rs 1.26 crs from March 10 to March 18,2014 !

L & T Finance drops below Rs 80 yesterday ~ Insider Trading!?

Check out this fresh morning post in the freely accessible SCRIP STANDPOINT Module on my company’s website www.jsalphaa.com

L & T Finance drops below Rs 80 ~ Insider Trading!? ~ 14-Mar-2014

Both parent company Larsen and Toubro and L & T Finance Holdings issued notifications to the BSE and NSE that Larsen & Toubro will be Offering For Sale Shares of L & T Finance through the Open Window on the Exchanges today through Broker Credit Suisse Securities (India) Pvt Ltd

The Notice that announces the Floor Price of Rs 70 carries a paragraph in the Larsen & Toubro Letter requesting the Exchanges to disseminate the Floor Price Information only after Trading Hours on March 13,2014,a day before the Offer for Sale is being made as per SEBI Circular

Clearly this Offer for Sale is to bring down Parent Larsen & Toubro Equity Stake in L & T Finance Holdings to 75%

Questions arise….here are five of them :

Q 1 : Clearly the fall of L & T Finance from Rs 88 levels in the morning to close at Rs 79 levels in the afternoon appears to be related to this Notice of parent Larsen & Toubro to Offer Shares of L & T Finance at Rs 70 Floor Price today ! ~ who knew this before hand to take advantage of this Low Floor Price and sell Futures or even stock at higher levels yesterday !….and is it just a coincidence that The Offer For Sale Notifications were timed to be announced on the Day that L & T Finance began trading in the F & O Segment  ?

Q 2: What Time did the Exchanges receive the Notices from Larsen & Toubro yesterday  and how were these received..email,fax,hand delivery of letter….could not the Exchanges have released the first Notice earlier and then later the Notice that announced the Floor Price ?

Q 3: Check the Books of Brokers who have done an abnormally  high Volume of Trade yesterday in L & T Finance in Spot & Futures to see if Insider Trading is indicated and if so who has perpetrated it?

Q 4: Why is the parent Larsen & Toubro selling the shares of L & T Finance now  at such a low floor price of Rs 70,given that  the latter is a front runner in being awarded a banking license that should be announced shortly  by RBI….as it could, in all probability, have got a much better price later if L & T Finance is  awarded a banking license!?

Q 5 : Has RBI told,on record or off, Larsen & Toubro or L & T Finance that the latters banking application will only be considered if the parent bring down the stake to 75% in L & T Finance,the license aspirant and applicant before they announce who have been awarded the new Licenses !?…and this has led to Larsen & Toubro coming out with the Offer For Sale today and it has nothing to do with March 31,2014 Financial Year Closing!….or more importantly does this Offer For Sale signal that L & T Finance will not get a Banking License !?   read more

Yeah ! Finally Announcing the Three Winners of TAP GAP Poser end 2013 ~Which Indian Company will be a Big Share Price Winner in 2014?

😆 Yeah ! Finally Announcing the Three Winners of 

TAP GAP Poser end 2013 ~Which Indian Company will be a Big Share Price Winner in 2014?

😀 Congratulations to VEJ,ROHIT and RR for JM Financial @ Rs 29,Delta Corp @ Rs 105 and Polaris @ Rs 141 respectively

Ranking

Scrip Selected

Winner

Awarded

1

JM Financial

@ Rs 29

currently yet

@ Rs 28/29

 

  A Banking Licence if granted early this year (strong probability, already taken as given in Banking Circles) will be a huge Game Changer and move the Price up smartly in 2014 

Vej 

Annual Subscription to Scrip Sanctuarries Equity Advisory Web Plan H on www.jsalphaa.com worth Rs 5000

+

XL gauravblog Hamper

+

Dinner Invite in Mumbai

2

Delta Corp

@ Rs 106

currently up

@ Rs 116/117

Is already a Profitable Player in the Entertainment (Three Gambling Casinos  in Goa) & Hospitality Sector and the huge Daman Venture is to kick off this year first as a Hotel and then Other Operations that include Gambling ~ Non Linear Growth Potential beginning in 2014 itself    

Rohit 

XL gauravblog Hamper

+

Dinner Invite in Mumbai

3

Polaris

@ Rs 141

currently up

@ Rs 145/146

Has restructured Operations into five Divisions each headed seperately ~ Exciting Scale Growth Potential as Obama’s Compulsory Healthcare for all kicks in this year in USA ~ Price will zoom overnight if and when it hawks of it’s Services Business like it’s endeavouring to do

 RR

L gauravblog Hamper

+

Dinner Invite in Mumbai

🙄 Phew ! it was a Tough but Educating and Interesting Exercise to finalize the Top 3 as above from the 58 Scrip Responses

The Shortlisted Scrips that just missed the Winners List are IDFC,Cera Sanitaryware ,VST Tillers and Insecticides

My Team & I went through the Pedigree, Potential,Performance  & Price Data of all 58 scrips and our first shortlist of 20 scrips were profiled into three categories as below

  1. Scrips that will suit all Risk Profiles ~ these included Godrej Properties,IDFC ,Repco Home Finance,VST Tillers and Tata Global
  2. Scrips that have Moderate Risk ~ these included Persistent Systems,Symphony,GPPL,Cera Sanitaryware,Indoco Remedies and Insecticides
  3. Scrips that may have Aggressive Beta or game changing situations in 2014 ~ these included JM Financial, Delta,YBrant, Liberty Shoes,Polaris,Helios & Matheson,Shilpa Medicare,AVT Natural and J B Chemicals

The TAP POSER had not laid down any conditions on Profiles suitability or Asset Allocation and suitable Exposure of the selected scrip in the Equity Segment or whether Scrip Prices can be manipulated to Highs but we did examine these possibilities

You will observe the Winners are all from the third category as they hold better potential to be the highest % gainers in 2014

😯 Our Assumption is that 2014 will maintain a Bullish Momentum going into the Year and Aggressive Beta Scrips or those that can have game changing scenarios in 2014 will be positioned to score well in 2014 ~ and so though all  58 scrip responses may have good potential in the next three years we were focussing on which has the potential to gain in 2014 itself

We also  examined the following situations :

  1. Whether the Scrip Potential is already well reflected in the Current Share Price
  2. Whether there is Potential Game changing Scenario or Non Linear Revenue & Earnings Growth in 2014 itself
  3. Scrip is too Risky even for Aggressive Profiles and can get decimated
  4. Corporate Governance Issues that may create strong hurdles to any Potential Share Price Appreciation
  5. What are the Trading Volumes levels and scope for manipulation

For all the other 55 Scrips that don’t feature in the Winners List I just have one Prayer for these ~ hope they do become strong Winners in 2014 and if any one of these have gained the highest in 2014 in % terms eclipsing even those declared as the three winners above, it too will be declared a Winner and the participant/s who submitted this Winner will be entitled to a gauravblog hamper and dinner in January 2015 ! as long as the Participant is not Vej or RR who are already Winners for one of their four Scrips each that they responded on this Poser

Here there is a good chance that low priced Scrips like JHS Svendgaard at Rs 6/7 (same currently) from RR and YBrant at Rs 7 (up on 2% upper circuits every day and at Rs 9.65 today) from Anand may just become huge gainers in 2014 as they believe they would

Thanks Hemant for requesting me to revive TAP GAP Poser with this Poser and Thanks to all of you who participated and made it really a successful exercise

Winners are being emailed individually by me

Now await the next TAP GAP Poser ! ~ Any suggestions what should it be ? ~ just  let me know on the blog itself  under any recent blogpost,including this one !

😆 Reiterating Congratulations to VEJ,ROHIT and RR for JM Financial @ Rs 29,Delta Corp @ Rs 105 and Polaris @ Rs 141 respectively read more

TAP GAP Poser End 2013 ~Which Indian Company Will Be A Big Share Price Winner In 2014?

Response Momentum is gathering some speedSo far we have had these interesting  Eleven Stock Recommendations for 2014 from Six People…Thanks Guys

Interestingly No Tata or both the Ambani Brothers Group Companies so far….nor Real Estate really…or Pharma or Export Oriented or Banking PSUs or Oil & Gas !

Come on all of you out there ! ~ need some more acceleration to this TAP POSER that was posted on December 19,2013

TAP GAP Poser end 2013 ~Which Indian Company will be a Big Share Price Winner in 2014?

Thursday, December 19th, 2013

You can respond on the above post of December 19,2013 like the ones below have done  or even on this one

Request that Response carry the  Current Market Price Recommended at and also Target if you can give one for 2014…..or else I have to do some homework and take the weighted BSE average for the day as the Recommended Price on the day you have recommended or an earlier date if the Response came in on a Holiday like December 25,2013 ~ and this can be quite volatile like Delta Corp…opened at Rs 101 on December 23,2013,hit a high of Rs 108 before closing at Rs 107 with a weighted average of Rs 105

So far we have had these interesting  Eleven Recommendations from Six People…Thanks Guys

Sr

From

Scrip Recommended

On

Investment Price in Rs

Target Price in 2014

1

Sumit Khanna

United Spirits

19/12/2013

2658

Stated

3400

Stated

2

Rohit

Delta Corp

23/12/2013

105

BSE Weighted Average Assumed

Not Stated

3

Sameer

Yes Bank

24/12/2013

378

BSE Weighted Average Assumed

Not Stated

4

Sameer

Bajaj Corp

24/12/2013

221

BSE Weighted Average Assumed

Not Stated

5

Sameer

Adani Port

24/12/2013

161

BSE Weighted Average Assumed

Not Stated

6

Sameer

Adani Power

24/12/2013

39

BSE Weighted Average Assumed

Not Stated

7

Anand

YBrant Digital

24/12/2013

7

BSE Weighted Average Assumed

Not Stated

8

Prasad

GMR Infrastructure

25/12/2013

24

BSE Weighted Average Assumed

Not Stated

Prasad

IFCI

25/12/2013

25

BSE Weighted Average Assumed

Not Stated

 10

Prasad

IDFC

25/12/2013

107

BSE Weighted Average Assumed

Not Stated

11

NSri

Deccan Gold Mine

25/12/2013

22

BSE Weighted Average Assumed

Not Stated

 

 

2013 Noble Laureate & Economist Robert Shiller is worried that US Stocks continue Rising

Nobel Laureate 2013 for Economics, Robert Shiller is worried about a Bubble developing in US Stocks & Real Estate in Brazil

 

2013 Noble Laureate & Economist Robert Shiller is worried that US Stocks continue to Rise and Real Estate in Brazil does too

He is the Yale Professor the World listens too as he correctly predicted the Sub Prime Mortgage Housing Crisis in US  and before that the dot.com bust.

“I am most worried about the boom in the U.S. stock market. Also because our economy is still weak and vulnerable,”  ~ he feels Finance and Technology Stocks are overvalued 

“I am not yet sounding the alarm. But in many countries stock exchanges are at a high level and prices have risen sharply in some property markets.That could end badly.”

Interesting,in this context,to see  how India will pan out in Equities & Realty in the General Election Year 2014