From 16000 and 4900 respectively are the Sensex and Nifty Persevering to Move Up or are they Obstinate not to Move Down! ?

“ The difference between perseverance and obstinacy is that one often comes of strong will, and the other from a strong won’t ”

From 16000 and 4900 respectively are the Sensex and Nifty Persevering to Move Up or are they Obstinate not to Move Down!?

As I blog @ 1 pm the Sensex is 16364 and the Nifty is 4963 ~ down 75 and 27 points respectively from yesterday

Which Way will the Wind Blow for the Indices in the next 12 months !? ~  Questions agitating Minds are

1. Optimistic and Bullish ~ Will Both move up towards 20000  and 6000 respectively in the next 12 months from current levels ?
2. Pessimistic and Bearish ~ Will Both move down sub 15000 and sub 4500 respectively and take longer than a year to recover ?
3. Realistic ~ Will Both move down first to sub 15000 and sub 4500 levels respectively  before moving back up past 18000 and 5500 ?
4. Neutral Range Bound~ Will Both simply hover in a Narrow Range of 15500 – 17000 and 4750-5250 respectively from Current Levels of @ 16350 and @ 5000 ?

Q 3 is rational thinking and mindset given the huge global and domestic adverse macros that continue to make us nervous and anxious despite Valuations nearing compelling levels for  Long Term Gains   ~ the uncertainty weighs quite heavily and in my view has not been fully risked into current Sensex and Nifty Levels…Therefore Methinks the Sensex and Nifty continue to be obstinate not to Move Down!

What do You Think ?….a leading FII ,who keeps blowing with the Wind, now thinks that the Sensex should fall into the 13500 to 14500 range by March 31,2013