Beginning January 2010,I had opined that our Sensex would trade in the range of 14000 to 18000 in the first half of 2010….This it did
Then as we began the second half of the year,I raised the range in July to 16000 to 20000
China and USA…Two Alerting Perspectives…. by each for each…Residential Housing Bubble in China & Country Rating Downgrade for USA…and where will our Sensex head in the second half of 2010 ?
Thursday, July 22nd, 2010
We have yet to cross half way through the second half and we see the Sensex past 19000 today…..so do I raise my range?….not yet
This is the beauty of Equity Markets…there are two diverse opinions at all times….This morning on the same stock channel,we see one ‘firang expert’ ,working for an Indian outfit, forecasting a 23000 Sensex by March 2011 on the back of higher corporate earnings next year,albeit with some intermittent correction possible….on the other hand we see another ‘Indian expert’ working for an overseas outfit sounding a ‘bubble’ caution at these levels
Here’s my view…..It’s one of Cautious Optimism for the Short Term…I would Like a Healthy Correction to levels of 16500….However this is simply refusing to come as FII Inflows dominate !
It’s all Green and Flowing In…..Clearly FII Flows have been responsible for this Sensex Buoyancy…In the first Nine Days of this Month FIIs have pumped in US $ 728 Million already…Year to date is US $ 13.7 Billion…Net Cumulative from 1992 till date is over US $ 86 Billion….These Inflows are pumping up the Sensex….and they are expected to continue as India remains a great Investment Destination for Years to come
Cautious Orange…..The Sensex is not exactly Cheap…it’s 18+ times FY 11 Earnings…..but then again it’s not exactly expensive too if one keeps a long term view in mind…certainly not a ‘Bubble’ as some experts opine
Remains Pink and healthy for India…..Cautiously Optimistic for the Short Term…more Optimistic for the Longer Term
Strategy Going Forward
Interesting ,but not altogether surprising,that in 2010 all strategies at all risk levels are making monies…Investment,Trading and even Speculation……Clearly India beckons…One should clearly remain Invested in Indian Equity for the Long Term…..reviewing,rebalancing,realigning and repositioning Equity Portfolios for the Long Term to capture Opportunities that will arise….looking for opportunities at lower prices if and when the Sensex falls significantly
Nothing against the FIIs…but think about this….on balance they have benefitted the most from Indian Equity……Many FIIs have earned and continue to earn Millions and a few even Billions of tax planned Dollars from Indian equity….they have used these very Profits to set up strengthen their Teams for India Operations…and at crucial times they have been deliberately cynical on India in the Media and in their Research Reports ,hoping to influence a fall,only to buy in !…..while India laps in FII Monies,it would be advisable if we don’t blindly lap in FII Brains…..useful for Indians to develop some Independent Thinking
BSE BTI Programme
A Two Day Programme ‘EQUITY PORTFOLIO STRUCTURING AND STOCK ANALYSIS …Integrating Intellect with Instinct’ has been conceptualised and is being conducted by me on Friday and Saturday,November 19,20,2010 at BSE Training Institute,Mumbai….The BSE BTI Programme Co-ordinator is Mr Vispi Rusi Bhathena at +91-22-61363155 / 22728303/22728175/22723250….The Programme will cost Rs 9000+ Service Tax of 10.30 % as applicable….Details of this Programme are uploaded on the BSE Website at
I have already conducted 12 such programmes all over India for a leading Mutual Fund and a Leading Listed Broking Group for their IFAs,Franchisees,Research and Operational Employees,Sub Brokers,Remissiers and selected clients too…the feeback has been inspiring
Now through the BSE BTI Platform,I intend taking this Workhop direct to the Investing Public…those who really need vital macro and micro inputs to develop portfolio,pedigree,pysche and perspective to better and sensibly manage the risks associated with Investment in Equity
Those who are keen to develop a further understanding of what it takes to leverage on a beautiful India Story that continues to develop and also endeavour to create a Model Equity Portfolio to capture Opportunities that are arising are welcome to attend this Programme
The Programme covers Five Fundamental Modules as below
Module 1 : Overview of the Economy
India on the Move… Global Financial Crisis….Reading the Union Budget…. Eleventh Five Year Plan…. Oil…… Interest, Inflation and Exchange Rate……Savings, Investment & Consu mption…..Infrastructure Boost…. Politics of Economy
Module 2 : Market Dynamics
Sensex Valuation…. FII Impact…. Liquidity, Sentiment, Momentum, Value…. Decoupling Theory…. Corporate Earnings…. Global Cues…. Liberalisation, Privatisation and Globalisation…Leveraging the India Story…..Derivative Play…India Vision 2025
Module 3 : Valuation
Time Value of Money… Interpretation of Financial Statements for Stock Analysis… Relative Valuation… Absolute Valuation… Contemporary Valuation… Price V/s Value
Module 4 : Portfolio Allocation & Construction
Direct Equity v/s Mutual Funds : Interesting Angles….. Client’s Risk Profiling… Investor Mistakes… Improper Framing, Anchoring, Herding etc… Investment Approaches… Investor Gurus… Warren Buffett & Peter Lynch… Logical Thinking… Game Plays… Return & Risk…Portfolio Allocation… Portfolio Construction… Portfolio Measurement… Hedging
Module 5 : Adding Value to Client Relationships
Integrity Tests… Awareness of Contemporary & Controversial Issues… Insider Trading… Street Smartness Quiz… Managing Sensitive Accounts… Evaluating Financial Products v/s Peer Offers… Suitable Stock Selection & Portfolio Churning… Boosting & Balancing both Employer & Client Interests
Hope to see many of you Blog Regulars at my BSE BTI Programme in Mumbai this November 2010….Seats are limited,so it would be advisable to register and sign up once you have decided you really want to attend this Programme
I would urge you to view the Rs 9000 + 10.30% Service Tax Programme Fees as an Investment rather than an Expense !
6 thoughts on “Macro Call….Sensex up past 19000 today….what next ?…..those keen to understand some more are welcome to attend my BSE Training Workshop in November 2010”
Net year to date of FII is near 23000 crores which is around 5billion dollars (taking 1$=45 Rs).Thats from the BSE site .
From where did you get 13billion dollar figure.Could you please elaborate
do you have any plan to conduct such trainings in chennai in the near 4-6 months.bcos i could save transport+lodging costs.
Source is FII Investments trends till date in Calendar Year 2010 on sebi.gov.in…through Stock Exchanges it is US $ 9.3 b and Primary Markets it’s US $ 4.4 b in Equity in 2010 till September 9,2010
What you state of @ Rs 23000 crs net cumulative is from the BSE Website for All India Equity only in Secondary markets and that too only from April 2010
This should clear your doubt…the FII Net Inflows are nearing US 14 billion…in fact with Sensex surging 400 points today and crossing 19200,I suspect we would have crossed FII net cumulative Inflows in 2010 of US $ 14 Billion today !….Cheers !
Yes Ramurthy…the plan is definitely there….in fact we had initially planned to announce the launch in three cities of Mumbai,Pune and Chennai….however as BSE BTI base is in Mumbai the programme announcement is beginning with Mumbai….I want full houses whereever we host this programme….maybe when we announce for Chennai,you can help us spread the Good word….Thanks and Cheers
Also conduct your program in the garden city ,Bangalore Gaurav! !WIll definitely attend and spread the word!
Yes Swaroop…it’s also being planned in Bengaluru….in fact I’ve already held two such programmes there….but not open to the public…this one will be