Sensex sinks below 24000 & I love it !
Had sounded the alert way back in December 2014 that 2015 would be a volatile & vulnerable year & had reiterated this often in 2015….had opined that FPI Inflows will drop and even reverse after record Inflows in 2014 that gave the Sensex & Nifty the swagger to move ahead in 2014 and early 2015
Global & Domestic Pulls & Pressures were unleashing on multiple fronts across China,Middle East,Russia,Brazil,South Africa in particular
Falling Oil & Slipping Currencies continue to play havoc with Economies of Countries that depend on Oil Revenues
I’m reproducing an interesting and relevant blogpost of mine just over four months ago in September 2015
A few Extracts from the above blogpost ……
“I’m Hoping for A Merciless Market ! ….that’s when you can get into serious wealth creation opportunities at lower risk for higher gain !
Too frequent communications then would have served little purpose other than the danger of generating ‘Noise’ from the exchanges !
While we are not into Equity Fundamental Advisory for Bragging Rights we must raise this issue to revalidate our cautious view held in 2015
We have held a view of Sensex Range of 25000 to 27000 for most part of this year 2015,especially after it touched 30000 on March 4,2015 after closing 2014 at 27500 levels.
We had opined in December 2014 itself and in January 2015 that the Sensex will record an all time high of 30000 early in 2015 as the three legs of the Equity Table ~Momentum,Sentiment and Liquidity ~ were all in favour although the fourth leg Valuation was beginning to raise an alert on the Corporate Earnings Front
Early in 2015 we were unable to assess with the required degree of conviction on four domestic factors and three overseas factors that would play out in 2015.Of course everyone had a strong view or opinion on these !…these were :
- Significant Rate Cuts demanded by the Corporate Sector to revive Manufacturing Sector ~ Yet awaited
- Corporate Earnings in FY 16 after a bad Q 4 FY 15 ~ Q1 & Q 2 FY 16 seem to carry forward from Q 4 FY 15 ~ Sensex FY 16 EPS projections lowering inevitable
- Normal Monsoon ~ After a promising June,it’s been downhill in July and August 2015 and Monsoon Shortfall is now a given
- Pace of Economic Reforms especially on the GST ,Land and Make in India Initiatives ~ Not much Headway given the Political Opposition that has disrupted and washed out whole Parliament Sessions
- Was the record surge of Chinese Stocks backed by fundamentals
- Will Greece be bailed out or allowed to default and exit the Eurozone
- When will the US Fed raise rate
What we did assess with conviction was that FPI Inflows will ebb or even reverse in 2015 from the record inflows in 2014…another reason that should mute markets…as this was played out it was ignored by a frenzied midcap space market that justified it being balanced out by increased retail participation and absorption by increased Mutual Funds Investments
On ET Now Prime time on March 31,2015 I had aired my fundamental views for the new FY 16 that was dawning to a wider audience than just clients.I had stated that the markets were running ahead of fundamentals
Yet the Smallcaps & Midcaps had raced away in a frenzied climb last six months too……. for not having been aggressive enough to participate in the midcap takeoff and for being relatively more conservative with dependence on Core Scrips weightage as per Risk Profiling and Asset Allocation as a discipline and drastically reducing the frequency of Fundamental Recommendations in all Modules and refusing to trade in and out of markets furiously especially in scrips that were touted on the street or in stock chats or in networks or on the air by experts on popular stock channels and stock portals….most were justifying the run up and urging and seducing for more participation to those especially who thought were missing the boat…The Young were inheriting Earth !
There were Fundamental Reasons to hold the view that we did and that is being only realised and acknowledged now…these were reiterated with reasons in a much appreciated NSE Training Workshop on August 8,2015….it is safer to err on the side of caution…there will always be another opportunity or another boat to catch in case if we did miss one
The Chinese Shock of last Monday acted as the trigger to unnerve global markets and currencies and set into motion a rapid decline and increased uncertainty and nervousness…the bearings don’t read good
Midcaps that had madly raced away have derailed quite pointedly and ecstasy has literally overnight turned to first bewilderment and now consternation for those who thought they had boarded a Rocket but which has turned out to be at best a Roller Coaster and at worst a Momentum & Sentiment Trap !…Valuation takes a backseat in such situations or is conveniently justified by multiple re-ratings or unrealistic growth assumptions …all leading to risky plays on the conclusion that value,existing or potential is not in the price yet.
We do not yet believe the Markets are in a Merciless Zone where we shall get great multi-bagger value for the next few years…a great situation of ‘lower the risk,higher the gain’….we may not get there but we hope we do !
We love Big Falls ! ~ We love Chaos ! ~ We love Panic ! ~ therein lie Opportunities
So what should be the Equity Portfolio Approach & Strategy now ?
- Sell now to buy cheaper equity later or to get on/back on track with asset allocation ?
- Start Averaging Buying Now ?
- Commit all Funds available for Equity right away to Buy ?
- Wait & Watch ?
We are not suggesting Timing the Markets…no one can or has done so with sustained degree of success over the years
2014 was wonderful ~ 2015 as expected is turning out to be choppy ~ How does one prepare in Equity for the second half of FY 16 and beyond
Of course we remain as always fully fundamental in our reasons for our Selections
Think Risk Profile ~ Think Asset Allocation ~ Think Fundamental ~ Think Investment ~ Think Long Term ~ Think Value ~ Think Contrarion when indicated
…and then Act to really create Wealth and protect it while doing so and not just trade in and out all the time
Cheers & Best Regards,
Gaurav A Parikh, Managing Director
Jeena Scriptech Alpha Advisors Pvt Ltd “
In mid 2015 my sense of the Sensex beginning to be in a bargain zone was 22000….a level last seen pre-general election under two years ago in March 2014….I had expected the Sensex to drop into a Zone of 22000 to 24000 in the second half of 2015 after hitting high ranges of 28k-30k early in 2015 and then slipping as warned in to 25k-27k
Markets can be merciless & we are now witnessing this as my range of 22k-24k now looks probable with the Sensex cracking 24k today !
Many,some leading names in the Equity feild, have disagreed with me and had remained very bullish for 2015 and continue to remain so for 2016 & feel there will not be more Pain
I wish them the best…..safer to be safe & survive & be patient to strike …..will be fun to be contrarion yet again when there is blood in the streets…the colour is yet to get Bloody Red….should get there soon !….of course cant time & so averaging may be a good approach….be as always fundamentally selective & true to your risk profile
Traders are rarely in Cash & therein lies the danger when Markets turn violently.It is difficult to trade the Trend because it is difficult to figure out which Trend is your Friend !….more luck than skill !
Investors ride out the rough as long as Selections are fundamentally sound …more skill than luck !
Greed & Fear are two sides of the Equity Coin & believe me,Fear is more Potent !