Thursday…not some stray thoughts !

It’s another Thursday..the last in January 2011…and as Derivatives settle themselves for the routine monthly close,I’m trying to settle a few not so stray thoughts……

…..An Additional Collector is burnt to death by the Kerosene Mafia near Nasik…an Activist seeking Information under RTI on a Builder is beaten up badly by the builder’s goons accompanied by a local Political Party MLA….FIRs are recorded reluctantly after some pressure….Methinks the Government Law Enforcement Machinery is unwilling and unable to protect honest people who do their jobs…..because somewhere or the other they are involved…..not a good sign of the times

…..Final CA Results were announced last week…and they have been quite disastrous….Intermediate Rankers have failed both Final groups…those who thought they had done exceptionally well and were planning parties to celebrate their passing have flunked…..the morale is extremely low and increasing frustration is evident…I know quite a few of those who appeared…..Methinks the ICAI needs to revist and rethink their  approach in controlling and regulating the number of successful candidiates lest they be termed as sadistic !…..the Relative Marking too is causing agony and is not viewed as being fair.….An Intermediate Ranker gets just 8 in IT ! after having self assessed that the Paper went of  very well !…..Frustrated Youngsters,many of them really brilliant,lose self esteem and most  will increasingly shun and switch from CA as a career on Failing ….My advice to Youngsters is to stay off CA if they do not have the ability and willingness to devout to serious stuides for months before appearing for Exams…these are not College Exams…this is a Professional Qualification and is therefore bound to be tough….and do not take it personally if you Fail….it’s not that the ICAI is out to get you…it’s just that the number of successful candidates will always be controlled at low levels…this time it was just under 15% of all those who appeared…that’s 1 in 7 passing…some centres it was 1 in 12….and when I talk to practising CAs they complain of a shortage of professional staff !…so what’s with the Balance !….if the objective is to preserve or up the worth of a CA by limiting the number of successful candidates,it may just end up in CA being seen as a Worthless Option !…Ask the Youngsters     

….Ex Captain Saurav Ganguly moots for S Sreesanth to have been included in the India 15 for the World Cup next month….Current Captain Dhoni has some issues with Sreesanth regarding his attitude….Methinks that Ganguly having been snubbed in the IPL auctions by all including KKR is being wooed and is up for joining the new Kochi IPL Team as Coach and Mentor…..he refuses to see himself in this role for home team KKR…..and Sreesanth is part of the Kochi IPL Team

…..Celebrity Mumbai Lawyer and BJP Party Leader,Mahesh Jethmalani made quite a revelation yesterday on an Arnab Goswami ‘Times Now’ Debate on Black Monies stashed overseas and the government doing little to bring it back…he revealed that the Crime Branch in Mumbai has a video recording of the secret meeting between the accused and now out on bail,Hasan Ali,the stud farm owner from Pune whose overseas account in a Swiss bank was found to have US $ 6 Billion stashed away and Congress Party Leaders,Vilasrao Deshmukh,Ghafoor and Ahmed Khan in Hotel Tulip….and this is in the public domain…..implying that there is clearly a reason for the ‘go slow’ where Hasan Ali is concerned….Even the Supreme Court has come down heavily on the Congress led UPA Government for this slow progress…Methinks Arnab should have picked up this strong accusation thread in the debate aggressively

…..as was expected ,Jairam Ramesh is once again positioned to do a U-Turn on the tough stand he takes on Environment Issues….he did  so on Mumbai’s New Airport…and is open to doing so on Vedanta’s Refinery as well as the Lavasa Hill Station Township being developed in the Western Ghats….Methinks this has always been the gameplan…act tough first to assuage the public and activists…then begin to relent a few months down the line as per script ! …Green Minister giving the Green Signal after Red and Orange !….Environment Concerns be damned !

…..these Consent Terms being filed by Listed Corporates with SEBI….paying a fine and closing Investigations for Market Machinations….ADAG Companies Rs 25 crores fined to two companies…Gujarat NRE Coke paying Rs 2 crs as a Fine…..Reliance Industries Group trying for the third time to settle an Insider Trading case involving RPL where @ Rs 1000 crs accrued as gains inside two weeks….Methinks this is like the Voluntary Disclosure Scheme…Deliberately break the law and then without admission of guilt,negotiate consent terms with the regulator and pay up the Fine to close the matter…only monied get away with this….me also thinks that like in the IPO Scam Matter,where SEBI distributed the fine to unsuccessful allotees,SEBI must identify the market victims and compensate  them for their loss too in secondary market machinations….this thought was prompted today by a call from an editor of a popular Finance magazine seeking my views on this  

……and the World Economic Forum is once again underway in Davos….Methinks it’s Bloody Snobbery…..Patting each others back….actually wanting to kick it !…..and many who attend are directly involved in having perpetrated this Financial Chaos in  USA and Europe…India should stay away from Davos…we really don’t need any certification…the World’s coming to us anyway…don’t go begging to it !….and real Action is taking place elsewhere….and when a nation’s real purpose is self interest and survival as top priority,what’s the purpose  of  Think Tanking or Joining Hands for Global Strategies and Currency Manipulations !…unless ofcourse you want to keep friends near but Enemies nearer !

…and what about rising Interest rates and Inflation….I thinks that deserves a seperate Blog !

Cheers !

P S…and Oh! the markets are correcting on cue towards a Sensex of 18000…don’t attempt to call the bottom…it may be in your Minds but it’s not in your Hands !….something’s brewing and it’s worrying…getting that strong negative vibe for Feb and March….sub 18000 levels could be on the cards…In November 2010 I had opined a Sensex range of 18000 to 22000 in the first half of 2011….However I fear 18000 will be breached in the short term…Traders and Speculators beware….Investors review your Portfolio selections to assess downside risk…don’t be in any hurry to invest fresh funds or reinvest sales proceeds   

6 thoughts on “Thursday…not some stray thoughts !

  1. Srikanth…I have never been a fan of IVRCL as I had concerns in respect of the way it procured orders and also the low promoter shareholding and hence restrained from recommending this Company….I see it has collapsed from a July 2010 High of Rs 194…was recommended strongly by several Brokerage houses…one of them runs a Bank too…their September end 2010 report recommended IVRCL at Rs 170 with a target of Rs 201…but it’s been sliding fast since then and is at a 52 week low of Rs 85/86 today….Perhaps the Answer lies in the shareholding pattern…Promoter Reddys own just 9.52% while FIIs hold 57.22% of the Equity at December 31,2010 !….and FIIs have been selling off in our markets…..perhaps IVRCL deserves a seperate Blog…FY 10 consolidated EPS was Rs 8..it also rewarded with a 1:1 Bonus and a 40% Dividend on the FV Rs 2 share….This year Profitability should be maintained …so is a 10 Earnings Multiple attractive to buy in at Rs 85/86?…Perhaps some more due diligence is required on this FII Shareholding…Interesting Mix of Shareholders here with HSBC Global itself holding 2.09 cr shares or 7.84% of the Equity…a shade less than the Promoters !

  2. Gaurav your views on Marg Ltd.?
    Its a small cap EPC/Real estate play with an operational port at Karaikal which its expanding from 5mtpa to 21 mtpa with investments from IDFC(150 crore for equity stake in SPV).
    The port alone could fetch valuations between 600 Cr-900 crore.
    Market cap of the whole company is around 400 crore
    So rest of the business is free
    Debt levels are high & promoters have pledged significant stake to lenders.
    Your thoughts woulld be greatly appreciated

  3. Swarrop…Marg looks very interesting…have been following it for over a year…but was shy of recommeding it…next three years are crucial for project implementation and expansion and debt reduction…Key EPS surge is expected only in FY 12…looks interesting…will study it in more detail

  4. Hi Gaurav,

    I gone through company called Cheviot Co Ltd. This look very attractive & quoted at very low PE but with good dividend paying record.
    It’s a unattractive business so low PE is justifiable. But do you have any idea about Promoter’s reputation?
    Otherwise this look solid company quoted under BV.
    Thanks in advance.

  5. Hi Parag….Cheviot is an interesting case…just declared it’s nine months at Dec 31,2010 results…Rs 25 crs net giving an EPS of Rs 56 and probably cross Rs 60 for the full year…Price has been dropping towrds Rs 300 from a Nov 2010 high of Rs 500…Networth is now Rs 272 crs with little debt…applied towrds Investments of over Rs 100 crs,Fixed Assets of another near Rs 100 crs and the remaining Rs 72 crs in Net Current Assets….Low Equity of Rs 4.51 crs (FV Rs 10) gives a Book Value of over Rs 600…75 % Equity is held by Promoter Kanorias…Jute Industry is barely surviving because of the Government largesse for minimum Jute Packaging required…exports are hit…competition is high from Bangla Desh and price of Raw Jute has gone up…yet Cheviot has done well….The Rs 100 + Crs in Investments in Shares and Mutual Funds and Bonds is keeping the interest in Cheviot alive because Jute is not a growth Industry…Last year a Resolution was passed to increase Charities from an overall Rs 5 crs limit to Rs 50 crs !….I hope the Kanorias do not believe that Charity begins at home !…the MD ,H V Kanoria is rewarded well with commission too….last year his salry was Rs 18 lakhs but commission was Rs 74.5 lakhs….hope thsi year with a better performance than FY 10,shareholders are rewarded with a higher dividend than 80% ….Cheviot has done well past two years…if it can sustain this momentum into FY 12 the share price will surge yet again…Market Cap is just Rs 137 crs…and it’s got Investments and cash of near this amount !….so the company’s jute operations come free !…there were over 4000 on the payroll and there was industrial unrest in 2009/10…Employee costs were just over Rs 30 crs…so there is a lot of low paying jobs here…company pays gratuity and contributes to employee insurance and provident fund schemes…so it’s liability may be restricted in case of redundancies….looks interesting,more so if FY 12 too continues the earnings momentum

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *