USA Debt Ceiling is US $ 16.7 Trillion ~ President Obama & the Democrats want it raised while Republicans want Spending Cuts
This is a Simple way to understand the Fiscal Cliff that USA is standing on right now
Last Time USA bought Time not to fall of the fiscal cliff from January 1,2013 with both sides agreeing to disagree and deferring the call to raise the debt ceiling down the road in 2013
Both sides are not any closer to a compromise yet but will have to deal with before September 2,2013 or else the financial implications not just in USA but Globally are far weightier than what Lehman’s Collapse triggered in 2008
Quantitative Easing by pumping in liquidity even if it has meant excessive printing of Currency,has been the panacea prescribed by the Fed Governor Ben Bernanke and the Democrats as the way forward for the Economy to revive ~keeping Interest Rates Low with Fed rate near Zero, encouraging Investments and Consumption ~ Falling unemployment rate from near 10% levels to current 7.5 % as in April 2013 & Inflation rate raising it’s head even if ever so slightly has been seen as signs of a recovery and that QE Measures are making an Impact ~ The Record US Dow at 15000+ is being seen as a reflection of a recovery ~ Housing Prices are showing signs of a Revival
Is this a sustainable Reality or just an Illusion ~ Does nobody realize that US is simply trying to solve their Huge Debt Problem by Resorting to More Debt and leveraging the US $ Status as being the World Reserve Currency to keep it’s Mint running 24 by 7 !
More than half the US Debt has been created after President Obama assumed Office for the First Time and now has been re-elected for a second term
For example if you do use the CPI Inflation Calculator in the above Inflation link it indicates that US $ 1 in 2008 (Lehman Collapse Year) has the same buying power as US $ 1.08 in 2013 ~ That’s not really any significant rising Inflation that should indicate with conviction of a sustainable economic recovery in progress
Unemployment Rates Falling too a good indicator of jobs market becoming active again but one has to factor in the new stringent US Employment Restrictions that have been prescribed for overseas recruitments and outsourcing ~ and the fact that US has signed Big Business contracts in Billions of Dollars with India in particular in the field of Aerospace and Engineering and Nuclear Technology in particular has created thousands of jobs in USA ~ and one more point ~ many of the new jobs created are temporary or contractual in nature ~ in fact an Economy Policy Institute Report warns that even by 2020 30% of the American Workers will be engaged in Low Paying Jobs defined as below poverty line to support a family of four ~ not much change from 2010 ! It further warns that given that 50% of the American College Grads are currently unemployed or underemployed it will be most of these that will hold such jobs ! In fact currently 46 Million Americans live on Food Stamps ~ that’s 15% of the Population
And whether Excessive Printing of the US Currency to fund QE measures is the Only Solution that will position USA to bring it bank into the pink of health or whether Spending Cuts to bring down Spiralling and choking Debt that mortgages the future generations too is the way to adopt I shall leave it to the Democrats and Republicans to fight out on the Fiscal Cliff they stand on !
Choking Total Debt is already globally estimated to be US $ 223 Trillion ~ that’s over Three times the Global GDP of US $ 70 Trillion end 2012 ~ The Developed Countries are worse off with US $ 157 Trillion Debt which amounts to nearly Four Times their GDP while the Emerging Markets Debt is at US $ 66 Trillion at twice and quarter of their GDP
Of Total Debt of US $ 223 Trillion the Government Debt Component is @ US $ 56 Trillion or 80% of Global GDP with Japan leading the Way at 220% Government Debt to GDP Ratio
The World has never before been as heavily leveraged as it is currently and there is every indication that the US $ will sooner than later be unplugged as the World Reserve Currency ~ and not ‘if’ but ‘when’ this happens the US $ will overnight be considerably depreciated as it will not be required for countries to hold US $s in their Reserve for Trade ,especially Oil Trade Settlements and US will find unwilling Lenders through US $ Denominated Notes and Bonds ~ Even big US Giants like McDonalds & Caterpillar have recently raised Funds issuing Chinese Yuan Bonds
What I do want to see in my Life time is that there emerges a wider distribution of Economic Wealth on Planet Earth for we have seen that concentration in just USA and a few other Developed Nations can wreak financial havoc globally ~ In this Context China & India are emerging strongly to balance the Global GDP see-saw between USA & Europe on one side and Asia on the Other
It’s not a Comfortable & Peaceful World we live in ~ with Economic and Nuclear Flashpoints reminding us of this every single day and keeping the Planet wide awake lest we all die in our sleep if someone presses the ultimate trigger !
Yes the Dow will seek more record highs this year pumped more by excessive liquidity that has scarce other opportunities to apply itself in ~ too early to conclude with conviction that any Economy Recovery seen is sustainable
…..and our Sensex will follow ~ it’s already holding above 20000
Just be cautious of the triggers ! ~ September 2,2013 is just one of them
…..and for India it could be the General Elections being held earlier than 2014 as scheduled where Indians are yet again expected when casting their Votes to actually Vote their Castes ! and the warning yesterday by S & P that it continues to hold a negative outlook for India and there in a one in three chance that it may just reduce India to a junk status in the next 12 months from the near junk status of BBB-