Equity Meltdown~Pulling out or Putting In!?

Equity Meltdown~Pulling out or Putting In!?

Answer this to define yourself ~ your Investment Mindset now &  your Risk Profile in general  ?

The Question should be surely in your Mind right Now as continuing Global Meltdown forces India Meltdown too with the Nifty & Sensex sinking over 3.3% today to go sub 7000 & 23000 respectively ~ down 23% in 11 months from the highs of  9119 & 30025  in the first week of  March 4,2015

Had warned you’ll in December 2014 that 2015 will be Volatile & Vulnerable and reiterated it several times in 2015….stated that 2016 looks more ominous

Worth reproducing this blogpost of mine of September 4,2015

Hoping for A Merciless Market for Higher Gains at Lower Risk !

Friday, September 4th, 2015

At the time it was of concern that the Sensex had gone sub 25500 but I yet had declared it was not a Merciless Market yet!….that’s when you can get into serious wealth creation opportunities at lower risk for higher gain !

Here’s an extract from what we had communicated  privately in early September 2015

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Hi,

We have been quiet for a few months now for a good reason. Those who are on our fundamental wavelength know what we stand for. .Too frequent communications then would have served little purpose other than the danger of generating ‘Noise’… !

What we did assess with conviction was that FPI Inflows will ebb or even reverse in 2015 from the record inflows in 2014…another reason that should mute markets…as this was played out it was ignored by a frenzied midcap space market that justified it being balanced out by increased retail participation and absorption by increased Mutual Funds Investments 

On ET Now Prime time on March 31,2015 I had aired my fundamental views for the new FY 16 that was dawning to a wider audience than just clients.I had stated that the markets were running ahead of fundamentals

Yet the Smallcaps & Midcaps had raced away in a frenzied climb last six months too & we were being questioned  why we were being relatively more conservative with dependence on Core Scrips weightage as per Risk Profiling and Asset Allocation as a discipline and  refusing to trade in and out of markets furiously especially in scrips that were touted on the street or in stock chats or in networks or on the air by experts on popular stock channels and stock portals….most were justifying the run up and urging and seducing for more participation to those especially  who thought were missing the boat…The Young were inheriting Earth !   

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Stock Markets & the Sensex…Yawn!…Humming Raj Kapoor and his ‘Mera Naam Joker’ song of “Aye bhai jara dekh kay chalo….aage bhi nahi, peeche bhi…. !”

The Sensex is keeping in a small static zone above 16000….Traders and Speculators are Bored..Investors have been bored for some time now !…..Seems only the Brokers and Stock Channels and the plethora of Fundamental and Technical Experts that proliferate and depend on them seem to think that things remain Exciting and Opportunities keep beckoning!…and that “There is Always a Bull Market somewhere “…..Bull

Been humming that Raj Kapoor classic from  his classic ‘Mera Naam Joker’….”Aye Bhai jara dekh kay chalo…aage bhi nahi,peeche bhi,…daaye bhi nahi,baaye bhi…upar bhi nahi,neeche bhi….!”…..Raj Kapoor was a visionary…..and this song was probably inspired by the Sensex !…but Hey ! this movie and the song were born before the Sensex was in 1986,with 1978/79 as the Base Year !

Raj Kapoor was truly a visionary !

Cheers !

Calamity Drought and you yet want the Sensex to continue to Celebrate !?

So it’s finally Out…it’s a drought…the short term Monsoon,rather the lack of it, trigger begins to impact the Sensex….I had warned about this on June 24,2009……Click on

 Monsoon Fears fuel Sensex Fears

Liquidity and Momentum and Pacifying,Assertive and Assuring Government and Experts Voices in India and overseas had kept our Sensex on track for new recent highs…Irrational…given the fact that Markets had run ahead of Fundamentals yet again and the Monsoon factor had been ignored

It’s been an amusing few weeks….signal to noise ratio from the Channels continue to emanate static…..when the Markets kept rising,experts began sprouting out of the media woodwork,boldly justifying it…when they fell,they are justifying this too !

Be warned…when Investment and Merchant Bankers become really active…it’s sucker time again ! 

Valuations be damned !….Go for the Hype…suckers…Go for the IPOs…suckers….wanna bet Mahindra Holidays will go below Rs 300,it’s issue price ?…it’s 330 right now !…and wanna bet NHPC too will be available below it’s IPO Price of Rs 36 shortly after it gets listed !?

Get Real

China was down 5% today….This was the trigger…..Sensex,following cue, has crashed 640 points to 14772 as we near closing today

Get Stock Specific with critical weightage to both,relative and absolute Valuations…you’ll be safe…don’t panic that one short term factor of a  bad monsoon can destroy your long term portfolio..Lucrative returns continue to beckon in the long term

Now you know why I’ve not been in any hurry to buy in !..To be forced to make Long Term Play decisions in the Immediate Term,so as to not miss fast upmoves, is a sure recipe for expensive buying ….haven’t we all learned that before !?

As I blogged on August 4,2009 that I was not comfortable at Sensex of 16000…it had run up too fast…18 times Current Year Earnings…it needed to correct to 13000 to sustain a healthier move forward with a three year outlook…In this context,I’m comfortable now with this correction…Hope it continues…It would provide cheaper buying opportunities..New Clients should be happy to be in cash as we delayed creating New Portfolios

Cheers ! 

Even the Sensex seems to be singing out the hits of Mohd Rafi and Kishore Kumar

Borrowing a Shakespeare line  ” If Music be the Food of Love,Play on !”

What a lovely way to end July and begin August….July 31,2009 was the 29th Death Anniversary of the melodious Singer Mohd Rafi and August 4,2009 would have been the day when the eccentric and my all time favourite Singer Kishore Kumar would have turned 80, had he been alive

So on July 31,I made it a point to specifically play all of Rafi’s hits…in fact fell asleep at night listening to  Rafi  crooning out his ‘out of this world’ numbers…‘Gulabi Aakhen’,’Tere Mere Sapne’,’Chaudvin Ka Chand Ho’,’Jo Wada Kiya’,’Yeh Duniya Yeh Mehfil’,’Suhani Raat Dhal Chuki’,’Mujhe Duniya Walon’,’Kya Hua Tera Wada’……

Any yesterday it was the inimitable,magical and mesmerising Kishoreda all the way…‘Yeh Jeevan Hai’ ( What a Song !…my top favourite…I can listen to it continuously 100 times and over !), ‘Chalte Chalte Mere Yeh Geet’, ‘Sheeshe Ke Gharon Mein’, ‘Manzilen Apni Jagah Hai’, ‘ Diwana Leke Aaya Hai’, ‘Jeevan Main Hum Safar’, ‘Phoolon Ke Rang Se’, ‘Pal Bhar Ke Liye’, ‘Gata Rahe Mera Dil’, ‘Kasme Vaade’.……and can you believe this…he never trained as a singer…he was a natural…Gift from God….his yodelling was unreal !

Such legends come once in a generation…they neither live nor die…they’re eternal

And the Sensex is singing along too seeking 16000…Rafi’s ‘Aag Hai Lagi Hui’ and Kishoreda’s ‘ Humein Tumse Pyaar Kitna’ !

Yes Kishoreda ! ‘Yeh Jeevan Hai !’

You got to be Stock Selective at 15500 Sensex Levels…Markets again beginning to run ahead of Fundamentals

This is what I had blogged on October 27,2008

Some Pundits called Sensex of 12000 irrational…some saw irrationality at 10000…So what would they call 7500 ! ? …Begin to slide in now

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Watch out for Tomorrow…Infosys Results may be the cue for Sensex to correct further

Watch out for Tomorrow !

Rains are not falling…but post budget the Sensex is…..From 15100 levels on Monday before Pranab Mukherjee began his budget speech to @ 13750 at closing today

Come tomorrow,Infosys is expected to provide a cautious guidance and a Q1 EPS of under Rs 24.These Results may just be the cue for a further Sensex correction tomorrow

Rains,rather a lack of it, remain a big worry…52 Districts in UP have received just 46% of Rain….A drought situation may emerge in this Big State

90% to 95% of the Long Term Avergage Normal Rains would mean a ‘Less than Normal’ Monsoon….This has been confidently projected already….The Fear is less than 90%…this would mean a Deficient Monsoon

This would have major implications on India’s Economy…lower GDP Growth Rates and more Government Borrowing and a Higher Fiscal Deficit than projected in FY 10

FY 10 remains a very challenging year….and no amount of ‘Disinvestment’ Hype being doled out will really matter in the end as the potential for Corporate Earnings Upgrades begin fading

Sensex will have to reflect this and correct some more