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October 15, 2008

Just to quell your Curiousity…Yes ! The Sensex did close much lower than at Noon today

The Sensex Closed even lower at 10809,down 674 points today……this is just in case you were curious to know as one of my earlier blogs today carried this feeling as below

“As I blog this,the Time is 12.35 pm and the Sensex is already reversing out 509 points to slip below 11000 to a level of 10974 as it did on Friday…Continuous Trading closes at 3.30 pm everyday on BSE…I don’t see any recovery in the next three hours…probably slip even lower “


US $ 1456 Billion stashed away in Swiss banks by Indians !…and our Government does not want to know who they are !

Of course we always knew this….that many Indians have been stashing away black monies in Swiss banks for decades…but when one hear’s the Quantum from the Horse’s Mouth itself it has to invoke anger

Just read today’s Express Buzz coverage of  the Swiss Banking Association Report of 2006 that reveals that India topped the List of Countries with it’s citizens having deposits  of US $ 1456 Billion in Swiss banks…Russia came in second at US $ 470 billion

In fact Indians have stashed away more funds in Swiss Banks than those from all other nations put together ! 

And the Swiss are willing to disclose in detail all the names of Indian Depositors if our Government wants this List….Our Government has preferred to stay mute on this !…No Guess as to Why !

Over 80000 Indians visited Switzerland this past year and atleast 25000 were not tourists !…that should tell you a story !  

This Illegal and ill-begotten Wealth is even higher than India’s GDP Wealth of a Billion Dollars and three times that of our Market Capitalisation Wealth on BSE !

With the Indo US Nuclear deal having been signed now,I have no doubt that Mothers of Many Deals lie ahead and will create unprecedented Mother of All Opportunities for many to add to this Booty in Swiss Banks !….Just a Sad and Angry Thought !

There is a lovely TV ad by Tata Tea on creating awareness and responsibilty to exercise our Right to Vote… ….Just Praying that, against all this Corruption and Inequalities in our System,there is born a People’s Movement and a petition under the “Right To Information” Act puts pressure on our Government as to why they have not sought this List of Depositors from the Swiss Government

These illegal Swiss Bank Deposits are a Shameful and Tragic Statistic that taunts the 1.1 billion people that eke out an honest living in India and are subject to hard strife…Ofcourse they are acutely aware of this Inequality and I daresay that anger and angst  will lead to agitation and aggression…Watch Out then !     

When the Indian & Chinese Media came Calling …….Pivot Sensex indicated at 9000

Just yesterday,the Senior Editor of one on India’s most respected Investment and Finance magazine called me yet again….” Is this 1000 point rise in the Sensex on Monday and Tuesday fake or is it for Real ? : he inquired

In June 2008,the Country Bureau Chief of China’s biggest National News Agency came to vist…he had inquired of Not only India but also of what I thought would happen to China Stocks….I had emphatically warned him that after the Beijing Olympics in August just watch out…The Downward Trend would intensify strongly

Just see how Chinese Stocks have capitulated…the CSI 300 Index measures 300 of the most representative A-Share Stocks traded either on the Shanghai or on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange

From levels of 5500 inside a year ago and from levels of just  3500 in May/June 2008 and 3000 in August 2008,post Olympics in August 2008 the CSI 300 has simply had a freefall to dive under 2000 now !

For Indian Stocks In fact on August 21,2008 in this Blog I revealed this uncanny feeling that the Sensex from 14500 levels would move towards 12000 soon after the Olympics…I had chuckled that “We were Not Playing the Sensex…It was Playing Us !”

Nothing is Fake or Phoney in the Markets…You may be a Guru but the Market is the Final Guru….These are prices and levels at which you can transact your convictions…so how can it be fake ?

The Question is whether such a rally would sustain and Markets would stabilise.

I told the Editor who called yesterday that whatever sense I have left tells me that this is a dead cat bounce…there is more pain…laggard effects of Significant Earnings slowdown,loss of Business,recessionary conditions,liquidity crisis etc…will all play out some more.

As I blog this,the Time is 12.35 pm and the Sensex is already reversing out 509 points to slip below 11000 to a level of 10974 as it did on Friday…Continuous Trading closes at 3.30 pm everyday on BSE…I don’t see any recovery in the next three hours…probably slip even lower

Two clear Macro Parameters point to Sensex drifting even lower and the Recovery to be even slower…Both indicate a Pivot Sensex of 9000 

The First Macro Value is Sensex Earnings and the Second is Value of FII Holdings…The rider here is that in Panic Situations there is a complete disregard of any type of Valuations,Macro or Micro..I see such situations as great opportunities

Aggregate Sensex EPS Growth has already slowed down..I have covered this in earlier blogs in detail…FY 09 should see the Sensex EPS be in the 925 to 950 range and a derated P/E Multiple of 9 or 10 would indicate a Sensex range of 8500 to 9500 read more

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