A Lion’s eye on the Bulls and Bears

“In India, companies may fall sick, but promoters rarely do!”

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Month: April 2009

Caught the Promoters of Ras Extrusion and Ras KMK Lamipack excitedly cheering the Mumbai Indians in their IPL Match last Night…revived some sour memories

It’s Voting Day here in Mumbai today for the General Elections…so yesterday was a Dry Night and we were with Friends at the Club Pub !…. on a Dry Night !?…Believe me it was really nice to enjoy the Privacy of the near empty Pub and chill out on Ice Tea and a close IPL Cricket Match that involved the Mumbai Indians

What a Choker ! Tendulkar’s Mumbai Indians lost by just 3 runs to Yuvraj’s Kings XI,Punjab…They had to score 120 to win and they just gasped and choked at the end

Mumbai India’s owner,Neeta Ambani was in a serious and pensive mood…in sharp and stark contrast to the hyper and excited Preity Zinta…So Near and Yet so far ! Mrs Ambani !?….Your auction choice of Duminy to prop up the batting was an excellent decision…He scored 50 and nearly won you the match…7 needed and he hoisted,what we thought would go on for a six,only to be caught right on the fence at mid wicket !…If it would have been a six it would have tied the game with two balls to go !

And Yes ! Hi ! Kajis…caught your intensity and excitement in the Ambani Camp at the Stadium……..I yet hold your Ras Extrusion Shares….Is your Company still quoted !? Rs 1 or Rs 2 perhaps !…Wish you Guys had showed the same intensity and excitement in running your companies !…Thankfully I sold out years ago from your flagship,Ras KMK Lamipack…Remember Samir Kaji! how you alloted lock in shares to my clients and to me Pre IPO,despite contrary promises made to a friend….And you stuck me with a five year lock in! ,while thankfully clients had just a three year lock in !…..I believed you would make amends by running your companies successfully….But your companies ran aground !……It was a Hope that was belied…I had to honestly apologise to my clients for this locked in placement…Had forgotten all about you…but last night revived some sour memories.   

I Voted !…What a Relief to realise I’m not a Greek Idiot !

It’s Mumbai’s turn today to Vote in the General Elections…I Voted !…. What a relief to realise I’m not a Greek Idiot !

Voting began at 7 am…My In-Laws were the first to register their Vote in the designated Polling Station near Home in South Mumbai…a School…My Wife and I voted mid morning….and yes ,Mr Debashish Chakrabarty,Chief Electoral Officer, we dutifully did not take our mobile phones as they were strictly not to be allowed in polling booths !……It was a mockery of a rule !…there was hardly anyone without one !

There were 20 candidates…three of National Parties,eight from registered political parties but not at National or State Level and Nine were Independents…many names I had not even heard of…many are surely in the fray only as vote splitters and many will lose their deposits…The pre poll alliances of NCP/Congress and BJP/Shiv Sena meant seat sharing….so we had the sitting Congress MP,all of a young 33 ,Milind Deora, standing yet again and no NCP Candidate while we had Mohan Rawle of the Shiv Sena standing and no BJP Candidate…60 year Old Rawle has served Five Lok Sabha Terms and he’s just Class 10 educated !…Milind Deora is a University Graduate,son of our Petroleum Minister,Mr Murli Deora and has served just one Term

In the last Elections in 2004 there was a 44.2% Voter turnout in our South Mumbai Constituency…This time we have 1.59 million voters in our Constituency….The Indian Voting Base is 714 Million of our Population of near 1200 Million

So who did I Vote for ! ?…The Choice was between the Devil and the Deep Sea actually…I neither liked most of  the Candidates nor their Parties…I liked an Independent or Two,but am of the strong opinion that India needs to be ruled by a Conscientious National Party and local and small regionalised parties and Independent MPs would only ask for their cake in coalition politics..they would have little other voice to make any significant difference at the Centre !…I yet had to Vote !…so I chose the One I did not like the least ! …atleast,my Wife will be Happy….as this was her firm Choice all along !

What a Way to Go about Voting ! Sad State of Affairs really…but then just reflect !…The Fangs of Corruption,Criminality and Communalism yet rear their Ugly,Dangerous and Toxic Self over all of Us…we simply lack political will and leadership to tackle them effectively read more

Just in and out from Hyderabad….lovely airport…just a bit too far !

Flew Air India to Hyderabad Monday morning and Kingfisher back this morning…Kingfisher may have Rs 6000 crs debt and is leaking losses…yet it’s got a better fan following…well deserved

One small local Hyderabad tip…If you have someone picking you up at the new and delightful Rajiv Gandhi Airport then instruct them to come to the departure driveway…all you have to do is come out in Arrivals and take the modern see-through elevator up to the third floor departures…the reason is that Private Cars are not allowed to drive up directly to the Arrivals…they are required to park at a distance and arriving passengers have to walk a fair distance to their cars

The Airport itself is really a beautiful sprawling complex…The only issue is that it’s a fair distance from the City…over 30 kms…In fact I paid the City Cab,Rs 509 for exactly 41.4 kms to the airport this morning…It’s a very reliable air conditioned cab service and charges a minimum Rs 60 for the first 4 kms and then Rs 12 for every km…I did the journey in 45 minutes this morning as it was early at 4 am and roads were clear…but yesterday it took me an hour and a half to reach my destination from the Airport ! and the Sun was simply toying with the Car A/c !

Being early for my 6.05 am flight,I was able to enjoy the Airport Facilities….The Kingfisher  girl was grinning when I presented my PNR number and requested for the ticket printout required to access the airport..I sensed my name had been spelled wrong yet again ! Sigh ! It was ‘Parakh’ this time…..It’s been ‘Parekh’ (acceptable) and ‘Prick’ (clearly unacceptable!) in the past !

Right from the Check In Counter,through Security and the Shopping and into the Plane ,through the Aerobridge is a very smooth experience..As the Shopping is after you clear Security,remember to keep the Bills in the Shopping bag,or else you’ll need a cleared security stamped tag,like you do for your hand baggage….The Shopping and Restaurant Facilities are really very inviting…From Books to Music to Chocolates and Sweetmeats,from Branded Watches to a huge Samsonite range,from  Idlis and Vadas and Dosas to the rich aroma of Coffee Beans…It’s Self service at most counters and Rs 135 for a full  South Indian Breakfast that includes Filter Coffee…There’s also a Shower and Nap facility near  Domestic Gate 28…really ideal read more

An early morning observation of People in the Park

This morning I was up before six to take my daughter to the nearby Priyadarshini Park (PDP)…It’s by the Sea

You see,my daughter has to run 35 rounds at the Sports Track at PDP this Saturday morning as part of her Physical Fitness and Endurance Test for her upcoming Black Belt Karate Examinations….so this morning was a training and preparation session

While she jogged around the Park,I sat quietly on a cement bench,timing her each lap and observing hundreds of people of all sizes and shapes walking and jogging around…Some clearly ‘Out of Shape’ and some very, very shapely indeed !

It was fascinating !

Some like to walk in a clockwise direction,some the other way around…some jog,some walk,some walk and jog….some clearly yet in sleep mode !…..some love company while walking,others prefer to be alone….some love jabbering away in rhythm of their steps…some were literally arguing,again in rhythm of their steps and not even sounding out of breath !, about politics and politicians,the flavour of the times as we’re into general elections..My ears caught the names of Rahul Gandhi and Mayawati ….Other popular flavours are the Stock markets and Cricket….I am told this habit,or call it a strategy if you will,clears toxic waste more smoothly in more than one way ! from the Minds and from the Bowels !……others prefer solitude…some walk focused on the path below,avoiding eye contact and the need to acknowledge others while some actually scan for people who they may know…some walk fast,really fast,some simply are prime examples of a slow replay of slow walking….some have earphones,even headphones, glued to their ears listening to music…some,for medical reasons, have Bands glued to their waist….some in groups struggle to keep up with the others,missing a step or two…you can clearly observe who the leader in the pack is…he walks briskly in the centre…and dominates the rhythm and  jabbering too

Oh ! and the Footwear….range from rubber chappals ! to sandals to generally sports shoes….You can conduct a Brand Study !…

Oh ! and there is no discrimination visible..there were a few ‘Bais’ and ‘Mausis’ in their Nine Yard sarees,taking their morning walk too…..Great to see that this is a Public Park in Mumbai,in Maharashtra,in  it’s true sense….

There were numerous really ‘Senior’ Senior Citizens and interestingly a few greeted each other with our traditional respectful ‘Namaste’ or a chant of ‘Hari Om!’ or ‘Jai Shree Krishna’ when crossing each other….I never saw any of the younger generation doing this to the Seniors !…Clearly visible Generation Gaps ! read more

Don’t Short this Market !..you’re up against Momentum driven by Liquidity

Don’t Short this Market !

Fundamentals and Valuations are being shrugged of by Increasing Liquidity and Inflows…This momentum is driving the Nifty and Sensex to new recent highs

Two Leading Broking Houses have literally overnight turned very bullish and talk of a Sensex range of 12500 to 14500 in the near term

Maybe they know where the Inflows are being sourced from and are possibly guiding them in !…Is there a connection with the outflows from Swiss Banks as the Swiss are gearing up to be more transperant and disclose names of beneficiaries of deposits if they suspect these deposits have not been disclosed to Tax authorities in the Country from where these Depositors originate !

And is there also a Connection with the General Elections !?… I remember the late 1980s and early 1990s,when I had authored a centrespread story for Mid-Day Publications on the connection between a short term Bull Run and  Stock Market Rigging and Manipulations and approaching General Elections….how Election Funds were created from Stock Market Gains…I had interviewed a leading MP,who candidly confirmed the connection but for obvious reasons refused to come on record and be quoted. 

If you recall,some of my earlier blogs on Indian Monies in Swiss banks…A report stated that India tops the List ! with US $ 1.5 Trillion stashed away in Switzerland

The BJP has sworn to go after these funds and bring them back to India,if elected back to Power.In fact just today,BJP leader and PM Candidate,LK Advani,has released a Report of Black Money stashed away in Swiss Banks by Indians.He has met the PM,Manmohan Singh on this and urged him to take action

Just imagine this power of Billions of Dollars  !…just US $ 17 billion FII Inflows in 2007 drove the Sensex up 47% past 20000 in 2007 and a combined US $ 36.4 b FII Inflows from 2005 to 2007 saw the Sensex move up 206 % in three years giving a CAGR of 45% !…and then in 2008 there was a huge US $ 13.1 b reversal and the Sensex decimated 53% to crash to 9647

POWER OF FII FUNDS

Year

FII Inflows in US $ Billions

Opening Sensex

Closing Sensex

% Move

2005

10.7

6626

9398

42

2006

8,5

9422

13789

46

2007

17.2

13828

20287

47

2008

(13.1)

20325

9647

(53)

2009

(1)

9721

11300+

16

In 2009,FII outflows had crossed US $ 2 b…they have been buying past month and just US $ 1 billion inflow has seen the Sensex  zoom 40%  up in just over a month from the early March low of 8047 to intraday levels of 11300+ on April 17,2009…Momentum is expected to continue with increasing Inflows and the Sensex is expected to move into a higher range of 12500 to 14500 in the short term  

 

Just Imagine if US $ 20 b has to flow into India as FII Inflows in 2009 ! It’s just 1.33 % of the US $ 1.5 Trillion stashed away by Indians in Swiss banks…Sensex will zoom past 15000 ! giving you PE Multiples of 18…..that’s a case of Markets running ahead of Economic and Corporate Recovery….What if the Recovery does not come this year !?

Clearly Markets,in the short term, are going to be more a Function of Momentum driven by Liquidity rather than Macro or Micro Valuations read more

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