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At Rs 387 Floor Price the IndianOil Disinvestment should be an easy formality

Government is now really reducing it’s stake in IndianOil Corporation on Monday,August 24,2015 in a Divestment Exercise.

Why do I say  “now really” !

….because last year in March 2014 it held 78.92% of the IOC Equity of Rs 2427.95 crs (FV Rs 10) and because it felt the market price at the time of @ Rs 240 did not reflect the real valuation, instead of an Open OFS ,it decided to offload 10 % stake of 242795248 shares divided equally to two other  listed GOVT PSUs Oil India & ONGC  at 10% below market price=>@ Rs 220 to collect Rs 5341.49 crs at the time.

The Returns have been @ 80% in 17 months for ONGC & Oil India on this.

In April 2015 the Govt transferred  20267 shares in an off market transaction without it being a sale to the Central Public Sector Enterprise Exchange Traded Fund as loyalty shares

Now IOC is quoted higher at Rs 394 with a 52 Week High of Rs 465 registered just last month and a low of Rs 307 earlier….at the 52 Week High the Gains to Oil India & ONGC on their purchase of IOC last year would have exceeded 110% in 16 months

The Floor Price of Rs 387 has been set for Monday’s Disinvestment of  a similar quantity of 242795248 as divested last year .The Market Cap is Rs 95770 crs .Govt Stake will now drop from 68.57 % to  58.57% and the Proceeds to them would exceed Rs 9350 crs (assuming floor price of Rs 387)

Question is whether IOC can replicate at least some of the super gains made in 2014/15 going forward

Nevertheless this Divestment should be an Easy Formality



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