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August 23, 2015

PEBS IPO at Rs 178 only to facilitate a super profitable exit to Zephyr Peacock!?

PEBS IPO at Rs 178 (FV Rs 10) only to facilitate super profitable exit to Zephyr Peacock!?

No Grudge against the Private Equity Investor Zephyr Peacock but if  you’re thinking of applying in the PEBs IPO that opens on August 25 you should be aware of this…..

Shareholding of Private Equity Player Zephyr Peacock in PEBS  

In March to May 2013 Zephyr Peacock infused Rs 35 crs in PEBS  through Preferential Allotments of 5468750 CCPS to be converted at Rs 64

PEBS is a subsidiary of the listed Pennar Industries which was quoted at Rs 20 at the time.I was intrigued by this CCPS Infusion as it was to be converted at Rs 64 while Parent Company Pennar Industries was quoted at just Rs 20….Digging deeper found that PEBS was soon becoming the Crown of this Group and it resulted in my strongly recommending Pennar Industries at @ Rs 20 to Rs 25 as a SS 2 Select in mid 2013.Today it’s @ Rs 56 after recording a High of Rs 71 earlier this month on August 10,2015

In March & May this year the CCPS conversion took place but not at Rs 64 but at Rs 58.17 as thus the Zephyr Peacock Funds got allotted 6016485 shares instead of 5468750 shares

However the Pre-issue Holding of both the Zephyr Peacock Funds is 8360235 shares.This difference of 2343750 Equity shares is on account of 2343750 shares being transferred by the Promoter group to these funds in the year 2013 at Rs 64 at the time of the Preferential Allotments

On Offer in the IPO

PEBS is launching it’s IPO through Book Building on August 25,2015 in the Price Band of Rs 170 to Rs 178

It comprises of a Fresh Issue of @ Rs 58 crs +  Offer for Sale of 5516141 equity shares

Assuming Rs 178 the Fresh Issue will involve new 3258427 Shares to raise Rs 58 crs

The Offer For Sale of  5516141 equity shares at Rs 178 will bring in Rs 98 crs + to the sellers

Of these 5516141 Shares on offer for sale by existing shareholders,5016141 or  @ 91% are from Zephyr Peacock.

Zephyr Peacock’s Average Cost of their pre IPO Holding of 8360235 shares is Rs 60 => Rs 50 crs and they’re exiting 5016141 shares at Rs 178 to get them @ Rs 89 crs !

This would leave them with 3344094 free shares + a profit of Rs 39 crs !  

To me this Stinks ! as the IPO of a total 8774568 shares which at Rs 178 gives the IPO Size at Rs 156 crs comprises 63 % or nearly 2/3rds of Offer For Sale to partially exiting Shareholders( remember 91% is Zephyr Peacock ) and only @ 1/3rd infusion onto the Company…and that too merely to reduce pressure on short term working capital borrowings !   read more

At Rs 387 Floor Price the IndianOil Disinvestment should be an easy formality

Government is now really reducing it’s stake in IndianOil Corporation on Monday,August 24,2015 in a Divestment Exercise.

Why do I say  “now really” !

….because last year in March 2014 it held 78.92% of the IOC Equity of Rs 2427.95 crs (FV Rs 10) and because it felt the market price at the time of @ Rs 240 did not reflect the real valuation, instead of an Open OFS ,it decided to offload 10 % stake of 242795248 shares divided equally to two other  listed GOVT PSUs Oil India & ONGC  at 10% below market price=>@ Rs 220 to collect Rs 5341.49 crs at the time.

The Returns have been @ 80% in 17 months for ONGC & Oil India on this.

In April 2015 the Govt transferred  20267 shares in an off market transaction without it being a sale to the Central Public Sector Enterprise Exchange Traded Fund as loyalty shares

Now IOC is quoted higher at Rs 394 with a 52 Week High of Rs 465 registered just last month and a low of Rs 307 earlier….at the 52 Week High the Gains to Oil India & ONGC on their purchase of IOC last year would have exceeded 110% in 16 months

The Floor Price of Rs 387 has been set for Monday’s Disinvestment of  a similar quantity of 242795248 as divested last year .The Market Cap is Rs 95770 crs .Govt Stake will now drop from 68.57 % to  58.57% and the Proceeds to them would exceed Rs 9350 crs (assuming floor price of Rs 387)

Question is whether IOC can replicate at least some of the super gains made in 2014/15 going forward

Nevertheless this Divestment should be an Easy Formality


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