Barclays Bark on India : Macro Storm Approaching!

Barclays Capital,the Investment Banking Arm of Barclays Bank released a Fifteen Page report on India, dated July 10,2008 and authored by their Senior Regional Economist,Mr Shailesh K Jha

Why this report caught my eye was the gloomy forecast on major economic indicators in the very short term

Optimists would have only one response ” Ja re Jha !”

This is what the Report forecasts

Inflation : 17% by September 2008…currently is at a thirteen year high of 11.91%

Rupee : Rs 44/US$ in the next few weeks further falling to Rs 46 in the next six months

Repo Rate : 10.5% to 11% by end 2008…currently is 8.5%

Fiscal Deficit  for FY 2008/9 as a % of GDP : 3% against Govt forecast of 2.5%

Value of Financial Assets : Headed South

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