Essar Oil Delisting is Over or is It !? ~ Glitch or Golmaal !?

Essar Oil Delisting is Over or is It !? ~ Glitch or Golmaal !? 

Yesterday at 3.30 pm was the cut off time for all shares to be tendered in the Essar Oil reverse book building on BSE & NSE

The First criteria for the delisting endeavour to be considered successfull is that  at least a minimum number of 92,569,408 Shares be tendered  in valid bids from the 142489858 Equity Shares being 28.54% of the public shareholding that could

At  Closing 3.30 pm on Monday,December 21,2015  BSE & NSE showed aggregate cumulative bids for 101143045 shares

So then what’s the problem !?

1,98,99,305 shares from 8 bids all at Rs 262.80 are yet showing unconfirmed on the BSE Screen !

Seems there is a Glitch ! or was it a Golmaal !?….if so for what purpose ? …to derail the delisting effort !? If so ,why!?

Seems Ruias of Essar court controversy regularly….either they  follow it or it like a guided missile follows them !  

 The 8 Unconfirmed Bids for Rs 262.80 for 1,98,99,305 shares apparently is from the LIC Holdings of Essar Oil in their various portfolios

If you remove these unconfirmed bids then the valid bids aggregate just 81243740 shares which is short of the 92,569,408 shares requisite

BSE has referred the matter to SEBI for guidance as to whether they should accept the LIC Bids as confirmed and therefore valid….if they say ‘Yes’ and that it was a genuine issue by Stockholding who were unable to upload the bid as confirmed in time by 3.30 pm for LIC then we have the Discovered Price or Exit Price of Rs 262.80 provided this price is accepted by Oil Bidco( Mauritius ) Limited the Acquirer….they can of course offer an even higher price than this to garner more shares

Essar Oil has got to be extremely anxious for delisting….in 2014 I had raised a stink when they set a floor price of just Rs 108….SEBI had to stop the effort…..however they allowed it this time around  with a higher floor price of Rs 146.05….in my view they should not have until the Rosneft Deal price for acquiring 49% stake in Essar Oil which is being negotiated was announced

Essar Oil is anxious that the delisting takes place before the Rosneft deal as otherwise that would have triggered of an Open Offer by Rosneft and would have disturbed the Equity Stake Holdings by Essar Oil Promoters & Rosneft leaving Essar Oil Promoters vulnerable

Whatever ! ~ even if this delisting is allowed with LIC’s bid being accepted at Rs 262.80 the shareholders who bid below this price or the exit price to be announced by Oil Bidco  will also get the Discovered  Price which will now be established at a minimum of Rs 262.80. Oil Bidco can accept this Price or announce a higher one as the Exit Price .It of course can reject it and the delisting would then not have succeeded read more

Essar Oil Delisting ~ Love the Guy who has tendered at Rs 5630 !

😆 Love the Guy who’s tendered  on NSE for just 25 shares at Rs 5630 in the ongoing Essar Oil Delisting Endeavour !

Look at the NSE Confirmed Demat Shares Tender Position as at 3.30 pm this afternoon

Who in their right mind would tender at Floor Price of Rs 146.05  or even below Rs 200 when current market Price closed at Rs 225 + levels ! ~ Yet some have !

Most No of Tenders so far have come in at Rs 240

Last date is on Monday,December 21,2015

Wonder what LIC will be doing  with their holding !  

Essar Oil Limited

As on 17-Dec-2015 15:30:00 IST

Price

No. of Orders

Demat

Cumulative Demat

 

146.05

14

505

505

 

150.00

1

200

705

 

152.00

1

150

855

 

152.05

1

200

1,055

 

156.00

1

0

1,055

 

160.00

1

175

1,230

 

180.00

1

100

1,330

 

185.00

1

0

1,330

 

190.00

1

0

1,330

 

200.00

7

700

2,030

 

207.00

7

0

2,030

 

209.90

2

7,900

9,930

 

210.00

8

2,705

12,635

 

214.90

2

300

12,935

 

215.00

7

2,02,607

2,15,542

 

218.00

2

400

2,15,942

 

218.20

1

300

2,16,242

 

219.00

1

18,282

2,34,524

 

219.80

2

1,500

2,36,024

 

220.00

19

75,117

3,11,141

 

220.75

1

50

3,11,191

 

222.00

5

80,834

3,92,025

 

223.00

1

0

3,92,025

 

224.00

1

10,000

4,02,025

 

224.80

1

600

4,02,625

 

224.90

1

50

4,02,675

 

225.00

17

42,28,421

46,31,096

 

230.00

19

86,105

47,17,201

 

233.00

2

600

47,17,801

 

235.00

8

26,599

47,44,400

 

236.00

1

20,000

47,64,400

 

238.00

2

2,250

47,66,650

 

239.00

4

10,13,451

57,80,101

 

239.40

1

200

57,80,301

 

239.50

1

1,000

57,81,301

 

239.75

1

100

57,81,401

 

239.80

1

890

57,82,291

 

239.85

1

1,000

57,83,291

 

239.90

1

75,000

58,58,291

 

240.00

197

88,71,013

1,47,29,304

 

242.00

1

0

1,47,29,304

 

245.00

1

250

1,47,29,554

 

250.00

5

1,840

1,47,31,394

 

255.00

1

300

1,47,31,694

 

275.00

1

10,051

1,47,41,745

 

280.00

1

100

1,47,41,845

 

290.00

1

300

1,47,42,145

 

300.00

4

3,340

1,47,45,485

 

325.00

1

200

1,47,45,685

 

330.00

1

729

1,47,46,414

 

350.00

1

1,500

1,47,47,914

 

400.00

1

100

1,47,48,014

 

496.25

1

400

1,47,48,414

 

500.00

2

675

1,47,49,089

 

550.00

1

600

1,47,49,689

 

600.00

1

400

1,47,50,089

 

700.00

2

16,500

1,47,66,589

 

5,630.00

1

25

1,47,66,614

 

If interested check out my earlier blog last week (with updates) for the full Delisting Story

Essar Oil Sets Rs 146.05 As Floor Price For Delisting ~ Critical Questions Remain
December 7th, 2015

 

A Rhetoric Question ~Will Petrol In India go back to 1963 Rates !?

Petrol Bill of 1963

🙂 Will Petrol go back to 1963 Rates in India as on this old bill from then  ! ? ~ Question is of course rhetoric !

Read that again ! It’s just Rs 3.60 for a full 5 liters !=> that’s 72 paise a litre  nearly 53 years ago on February 2,1963 !…it’s surged   to current @ Rs 70 a litre which is in absolute terms 9600+% and in CAGR Terms just 9%

You can dramatically of course say that 72 paise has become 72 rupees in just over half a century ! 

Today everyone has an Opinion on Oil Rates !

Of Course very Few ,if at all any, had predicted in  mid 2014 that they would halve from US $ 100/barrel

Now many are predicting they will halve even from current US $ 41.65 (WTI) & US $ 44.61 (Brent) ! .Here’s an interesting article of October 2015 on Oil & the Syrian War

Great for India if it does halve from the halve already in on year !…it’s cushioned our FY 15 & FY 16 significantly as we import 3/4 ths of our growing requirements and we are growing at 7.4% GDP  on last count 

Oil’s Well that ends Well !

India is in a sweet spot !…for now…will it get sweeter?

Interesting Interaction with Market Doyens Deenaben Mehta & Ramesh Damani

Last Evening interacted with Ramesh Damani ….glad to have caught up with him after awhile…..he presented historical evidence of Global Bull Runs where Indices have zoomed 5x and 6 x in as quick time as 5 years and the biggest of all being 21 x by Nikkei…. says we have commenced one in India from Sensex 17500 levels in August 2013

Rolling on his thought I asked him that at 28000 currently we are at only 0.6x two years down! so would he hazard a guess where we would be in a few years and would that then make even the passive Index Investing a good if not great Wealth Creation Approach for the next few years

In lighter vein he stated that he had said 50000! at a Phuket get together organised by Tata Mutual Fund and yes Index Investing would be wise too

I would say ~ Well look at it this way ! From 17500 to 28000 in two years is @ 25% CAGR on the Sensex and if we keep this up for the next three years we would have crossed 50000 by 2018…..Our Sensex has returned 17% CAGR since inception over 30 years ago though it’s performance has been lower  and erratic in lesser periods of 5 and 10 years.

Oh by the way Ramesh asserts that Direct Equity first and Index Funds next is the way to go and not Equity Schemes of  Mutual Funds….am completely in sync with him on this

His pet theme is Pharmaceuticals &  the Digital Story &  those who support E-Commerce Boom like Logistics Players….does not like PSU Banks even at Book or below…gives a thumbs up to Technology & FMCG going forward

Met Deenaben & Asitbhai Mehta too….she’s a pioneering lady in Indian Broking and  Asitbhai & her are a well respected couple in the field ….owe them at least a  great dinner now for Deenaben proclaiming among 50 present including Pradip Shah(IndAsia),Dilip Piramal(VIP) and Y Trivedi(Reliance)  that I should not be the one asking questions but instead be up there answering them on Wealth Creation through Indian Equities !

Deenaben you’re too sweet ! thank you for the lovely compliment ! hope you did not see me blush !

🙂 Her take on the Sensex going forward is quite straightforward and humorous ! “See BJP has 282 Lok Sabha Seats and multiply by 1000 we are at  28200 levels…NDA Coalition has 330 seats so I’m looking now at 33000!”….can’t argue with such funda logic !

😀 Definitely owe Deenaben & Asitbhai a lovely dinner  and before Sensex reaches 33000 !

Oh! almost forgot ! as we were leaving,a relatively young gentleman  walks up to me and says ” Sir,I’m a great fan of your blog.It’s one of the best !”…told him to interact through responses on blogposts as I could not recollect the name he gave as being one who has responded before read more

Interesting Characteristic of World Facilitators like Facebook & Uber & Alibaba & Airnb

Interesting Characteristic of World Facilitators Worth Billions

🙂 Wow !  How just a software and technology driven Scalable facilitator Idea driven by Internet  & Mobile Telephony can become worth Billions & Billions in quick time  and yet not  have to invest in or create the assets it needs to facilitate the Business !

 

 

Squirrels are back in May !

What a Lovely Saturday Morning! The Squirrels are back in May !….they had vanished in April and early May….learnt it was their mating season….first the sparrow awaits it’s turn just below the water pot….then the parrot does as squirrels feast and scamper around….only to finally realise that the squirrel does not mind sharing….all are early breakfast eaters before the pigeons and crows raid….it’s fascinating how the whole day they all play tug of wars and musical chairs….often in greater numbers…like twenty sparrows feasting and twittering and chirping !….Heavenly ! Blessed!

Sparrow awaits it's turn under a water pot
Parrot awaits it's turn as the squirrels feast and scamper around
Parrot realises the squirrel does not mind sharing