2020 & 20-20 ~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat Aug 5 2017

Historic Saturday,July 1,2017~Indian Govt launches the much awaited huge Indirect Tax Reform ~ GST ~ Goods & Services Tax ~ 🙂  Here’s my GST Launch & Announcement too ~ Gaurav’s Saturday Training

2020 & 20-20 ~ The Long & Short of it ~Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, August 5, 2017  ~ Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

On the back of a  fantastic Mumbai Workshop on Saturday,June 17,2017 here’s another opportunity to invest the first Saturday in August 2017 with me ! ~ especially for those who could not make it or could not be accommodated as Registrations had closed within a week of opening ~ expecting a few repeat participants too ~ what better endorsement could there be ! ~🙂 While you can call it an Encore ,this time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept another exciting Theme to spot & assess both Long & Short Term Opportunities in Equity :

2020 & 20-20 ~ The Long & Short of it

As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Plan to cover over 25 Fundamental Opportunities in Specific Sectors & Companies  to assess Value vs Price both in the Short Term & the Longer Term ~ thus ideal for both Traders & Investors

Here’s some fresh feedback from participants of the very recent June 17,2017 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price~ Wealth Destroyers : Potential Multibaggers where we conducted Macro & Micro Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises & more & even played an animated Corporate Tambola !  ~ Some participants came in from Dubai,Malaysia,Delhi,Cochin & Ichikaranji too ~ & what a lovely & lively Mix from retail investors to HNWI market veterans & professionals from FPIs,Fund & Broking Houses & Institutions ~ spread in age from early 20’s to the 60’s

“Again Sir you Rocked & it was my fortune to attend your wonderful workshop that too three times in a row ~ it is your simplicity, down to earth nature & great FUNDA knowledge ( how to value a stock so precisely ) made me motivated to attend your w’shop again and again & i hope in future also, I will be able to attend your w’shop ~ Every w’shop is so unique”

 

“indeed a great learning & educational experience….totally luv your analysis of stocks….looking forward to the next one”

“Always fortunate to attend…get motivated by your knowledge & the attitude  you carry with…thanks for sharing your knowledge & helping people like me to grow better” read more

Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 17 2017

Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, June 17 2017 

🙂 This time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept an exciting Theme :

WEALTH DESTROYERS : POTENTIAL MULTIGAGGERS

As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Plan to cover over 25 Wealth Destroyers to assess any Turnaround Value vs Price & thus a chance to redeem themselves and become Wealth Creators from here… or should just one move on in many of such Wealth Destroyers that are now beyond redemption

Here’s what some participants said of the December 2016 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price…and this was before IB Ventures zoomed 7 x in months from Rs 20 to Rs 140 & HOV doubled in the same time to cross Rs 300… we had covered both these & more in Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises

“Amazing… Awesome Session about Fundamental Stock Selection & Wealth Creation ”

“Full of Inspiration, filled with wisdom…. am really proud to be a part of this wonderful session”

 & from a repeat participant “recreated the same old magic of Bangalore in Mumbai… great Saturday”  

Would love to interact with you ~ So do invest one Saturday ,June 17, 2017 with me in my Mumbai Fort Office near BSE and above Starbucks & Croma

Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Here’s the Detailed Template of this Workshop if you want more details on coverage

gap-master-class-mumbai-17june2017

🙂 See you Saturday, June 17, 2017 at my Mumbai Fort Office Conference Room… we’ll figure out if Suzlon will continue to be ZZZZZlon!  & dissect many such Wealth Destroyers!

Cheers !

Great Interaction at the Saturday Equity Workshop

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Great Interaction at the Saturday Fundamental Equity Value vs Price Mumbai Workshop…we began at 9.30 am & concluded just before 8 pm,breaking just for Lunch ~ Lovely Ginger Tea was served & welcomed heartily thrice & tetrapak drinks once during the day during the interaction & presentation itself !

As expected the November 8,2016  Demonetisation Announcement & it’s immediate implementation  & it’s continuing  Impact on Equity Markets was debated for awhile on whether stated Objectives will be met or are they really any ulterior motives

Also briefly brought up was the ugly & messy ongoing tussle in the Tata Group to oust Cyrus Mistry as Chairman & also as Director from the Tata Companies he’s on Board & how will all of this impact Tata Companies Share Prices

We did cover quite a lot with the enthusiasm  peaking while covering the Assets,Earnings & Market Relative & Absolute Valuation Basis to assess many Listed Companies,from Core to Penny Stocks to some in the news…. all at latest Friday December 2,2016 Prices

The Feedback has been very warm as were the participants as they had great fun in interacting with each other too ,especially when playing the Trust & Investment Games…..I’m sure they will vie with each other to buy out TCS at US $ 60 billion or more EV if Ratan Tata does really decide to influence the Board to plan to sell !  🙂

Participant views on the Sensex Trend in the short term  were interesting….a few had no view,a few expect sideways movement while one really enthusiastic & unmarried participant from out of town (he came again inside a few months for his second workshop with me) thinks it will crash to 13000 while a married participant was optimistic in stating it will regain 29000  in early 2017….we discussed this threadbare & whether Index Trend really mattered in Stock Selection….we also covered Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing

Yeah ! You Guys were real cool & am glad you’ll  all left with some meaningful Insights than when you walked into the Workshop  &  have strengthened your confidence & conviction to apply them in Practice for serious Wealth Creation through Direct Equity

While all of you walked out with a Kit,Memento, & literally a Tin of ‘Sweet’ Memories,I was particularly impressed,when asked by me to decide, with your immediate & unanimous vote for the ones who walked away with the rewards for the best interaction read more

Demonetisation:GDP & Real Estate & Sensex affected~For how long?Attend the Workshop

Would Love to have you at the Fundamental Workshop in Mumbai on Saturday,December 3,2016

Stock Selection ~ Value vs Price ~ Positioning for 2017 & Beyond

🙂 It could turn out to be the best Investment in 2016 that you made for 2017 & Beyond !

Demonetisation : GDP & Real Estate & Sensex affected ~ For how long ?

What is more compelling right now ? ~ Opportunity in Equity or the Significance of Disciplined & Astute Asset Allocation ~ Would depend on how Aggressive or how Scared you are ! ~ or as wryly stated how Wise or Foolish you are ! ~ In the context of Investment,Trading & Speculating do you react or pro-act rationally or irrationally,impulsively or with reasoning ? Do you Sweat ,not because of Global Warming or Warm Weather,but because you’re in losses ? Discover your Risk Profile & be True to it

For answers to this & much more do take the opportunity to attend the Mumbai Fundamental Equity Full Day Workshop on Saturday,December 3,2016 .Click below to register online

Stock Selection ~ Value vs Price ~ Positioning for 2017 & Beyond

Q 3 FY 17 GDP is expected to drop below 6%  & Full Year FY 17 GDP will drop sub 7%.Sensex is already correcting sharply after Demonetisation was announced to Shock & Awe on November 8,2016.

Sensex opened 2016 at 26100 levels & dropped to 22500 levels early in the year before  smartly racing up over 30% to 29000 levels.On November 8,2016 it closed at 27591 just before Demonetisation Drive was declared  & launched at midnight.In just eight trading sessions Sensex corrected to wipe of net gains of over 6.5% in 2016 .In the Ninth session today,November 22,106 it recovered to regain 26000

=> Is Demonetisation just MAFA ,that’s Mistaking Action For Achievement & it is just Remonetisation ?

=> Will Sensex test its 2016 low of 22495 again in the short term or the current post Demonetisation announcement correction has already discounted the impact significantly & it will stabilise & turnaround from here to cross 30000 next year ?

=> Real Estate Stocks have slumped over 25% already .Will they slump a lot more when Physical Real Estate actually corrects by an expected 25%?

=> How do you Position for Wealth Creation through Equity in this Flux of Demonetisation & Donald Trump’s Truimph in the US Presidential Race & an Inevitable Fed Rate Hike coming up  that is affecting all the four legs of the Equity Table~ Liquidity,Sentiment,Momentum & Valuation? read more

IDBI Bank @ Rs 68 ~ Will Govt really let go?

IDBI Bank @ Rs 68 ~ Will Govt really let go?

In 1995  IDBI the DFI came out with an IPO at Rs 130.I had given it the notorious sobriquet ‘Instant Death By Investment !’ as the Pricing was way to High.The IPO was bailed out by UTI at the time in a quid quo pro really as then IDBI subscribed to Unit 64 at the high purchase price which was a scam in itself as it was 60% higher than the actual Unit 64 NAV which hovered around par of Rs 10 !

Then in 2004  IDBI the DFI merged with IDBI Bank  and in 2010 I had recommended it at Rs 130 in 2010 for several reasons.It did climb past Rs 200 the same year but then disappointed and started it’s downward slide as NPA Demons begin surfacing big time.

Last Month in the second week of February these NPA Demons caused the Share Price to drop below Rs 50

On February 29,2016 our  FM made this  specific budget phraseology for IDBI :

“The process of transformation of IDBI Bank has already started. Government will take it forward and also consider the option of reducing its stake to below 50 per cent” 

It was a no brainer for the Share Price to begin rising the same day from Rs 58 levels to cross Rs 60

It’s now moved up @ Rs 68

Here’s the Share Price Trend of IDBI Bank  from 2004 to 2016 (in Rs)

Year

Open

High

Low

Close

2004

62.90

115.00

29.25

109.80

2005

110.95

130.95

76.30

97.15

2006

98.15

110.00

48.50

76.30

2007

76.80

181.00

66.50

165.30

2008

166.50

180.30

53.00

67.65

2009

68.00

140.00

39.75

127.45

2010

128.00

202.25

105.85

164.75

2011

165.75

168.30

77.40

77.80

2012

78.30

121.50

77.15

111.40

2013

112.10

118.20

52.30

66.45

2014

66.85

116.50

52.95

73.15

2015

73.25

95.70

52.45

87.80

2016

90.80

91.15

47.40

68.85

The Book Value of IDBI Bank is over Rs 110 giving the relative Valuation of  0.6….that’s of course one accepts current audited GPA levels of Rs 19615 crs ,that’s 8.94% of Advances and with a 62.92 % of Provision Coverage

Government owns 80.16% of IDBI Bank and if it is open to bring this down below 50% as proclaimed in the Budget by our FM then it begs the question ~ Will they just bring it down but yet retain Management Control or will IDBI really be up for Privatisation and therefore up for Sale ! ?

Quickly the IDBI Employees have voiced their displeasure and threatened to go on strike in the crucial last week of this month of March 2016 which closes out FY 16

Why would the IDBI Employees resist Privatisation or Government diluting it’s stake below 50!?

Seriously ask yourself this ! I reflected and immediately came up two big reasons in my view :

  1. Insecurity of Jobs ~ This is understandable as Employees have huge job security under the Government ~ Bank can Hire but not Fire ~ at best Government can try VRS as they’ve been doing over the years in PSU Banks ~ Connect this with how bloated Government Enterprises really are on workforce be it the Railways or Coal India
  2.  Accountability & Transparency in Operations ~ This would open a Pandora’s Box in the Bank for all the NPAs & who really is responsible in the Bank to have advanced Loans that have turned Bad.Of the over Rs 2 lakh crores advances ,the Bank reportedly has an exposure of  Rs 7000 crs  to the JaiPrakash Group,Rs 15000 crs to the Essar Group and @ Rs 925 crs to Kingfisher Airlines.In fact the ED is investigating Vijay Mallya & his Kingfisher Airlines for Siphoning off  @ Rs 300 crs Funds from the Rs 900+ crs IDBI Loan      

So will our Government be influenced by the IDBI Employees opposition & not go ahead with it’s plans to sell it’s stake in IDBI Bank to bring it below 50% ?…the Budget already shows FY 17 Disinvestment Target of Rs 36000 crs + Precise Strategic Disinvestment of Rs 20500 crs.This would  include  IDBI Bank Stake Sale planned read more

Epic Global Debt Defaults Inevitable

Epic Global Debt Defaults are Inevitable 

Financial Apocalypse inevitable ! ?

Here’s a well summed up scenario by William White, the Swiss-based chairman of the OECD’s review committee and former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

Extract ~The stimulus from quantitative easing and zero rates by the big central banks after the Lehman crisis leaked out across east Asia and emerging markets, stoking credit bubbles and a surge in dollar borrowing that was hard to control in a world of free capital flows.

The result is that these countries have now been drawn into the morass as well. Combined public and private debt has surged to all-time highs to 185pc of GDP in emerging markets and to 265pc of GDP in the OECD club, both up by 35 percentage points since the top of the last credit cycle in 2007

Hitting Ten Quotes by White :

  • “The global financial system has become dangerously unstable and faces an avalanche of bankruptcies that will test social and political stability”
  • “The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up” 
  • “Emerging markets were part of the solution after the Lehman crisis. Now they are part of the problem too”
  • “it is impossible know what the trigger will be for the next crisis since the global system has lost its anchor and is inherently prone to breakdown”
  • “A Chinese devaluation clearly has the potential to metastasize. Every major country is engaged in currency wars even though they insist that QE has nothing to do with competitive depreciation. They have all been playing the game except for China – so far – and it is a zero-sum game. China could really up the ante”
  • “In the end, the future catches up with you.By definition, this means you cannot spend the money tomorrow”
  • “Falling prices of manufactured goods masked the rampant asset inflation that was building up. Policy makers were seduced into inaction by a set of comforting beliefs, all of which we now see were false. They believed that if inflation was under control, all was well”
  • “In retrospect, central banks should have let the benign deflation of this (temporary) phase of globalisation run its course. By stoking debt bubbles, they have instead incubated what may prove to be a more malign variant, a classic 1930s-style “Fisherite” debt-deflation”
  • “the Fed is now in a horrible quandary as it tries to extract itself from QE and right the ship again. “It is a debt trap. Things are so bad that there is no right answer. If they raise rates it’ll be nasty. If they don’t raise rates, it just makes matters worse”
  • “There is no easy way out of this tangle.It would be a good start for governments to stop depending on central banks to do their dirty work. They should return to fiscal primacy – call it Keynesian, if you wish – and launch an investment blitz on infrastructure that pays for itself through higher growth.It was always dangerous to rely on central banks to sort out a solvency problem when all they can do is tackle liquidity problems. It is a recipe for disorder, and now we are hitting the limit”
  • read more