Book Review for Outlook Business :100 Baggers~by Christopher Mayer

Hey ! my book review of Christopher Mayer’s ” 100 Baggers : Stocks that return 100-1 & how to find them “  now features online on Outlook Business....just also happily observed that  Stock Select for 2016  published in December 2015 is trending  online as the No 1 most popular read on Outlook Business this year !….surely because  Stock Select for 2015 ,Shemaroo @ Rs  159 given in December 2014 has rocketed over 100% inside a year & a half to current Rs 325+ levels …quite aware that if this year’s Select does not Click in the years ahead that ‘100 baggers’ will be read without the 1 !    🙂 

For want of Magazine Space the book review in print is a much truncated & edited version

For Full Flavour do check out my full review produced verbatim below :

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Book Review by Gaurav A Parikh,MD of Jeena Scriptech Alpha Advisors Pvt Ltd

Book  : 100 Baggers ~ Stocks that return 100-to-1 & how to find them

Author : Christopher W Mayer

Publisher : Laissez Faire Books

Published in : 2015

“ You make more money by sitting on your ass”

The author Chris Mayer could not have been more blunt in quoting Fund Manager, Martin Whitman

You need to Buy Right and Sit Tight for Years & Years & Years for that 100 Bagger .How do you Buy Right!? That’s the 100 Bagger Question Chris attempts to answer

 My own experience of 100 Baggers leads me to pat Chris on the back.To give you some sense  my three 100 Baggers Wipro,Mercator & Matrix Labs(now delisted as sold to Mylan) on which I had reinforced my credibility and standing had returned  respectively 38700% inside three years,12000% inside 5 years and 10000 % inside 4.5 years.But sadly not all took the full ride!.It’s like I confess at Training Workshops is akin to Boarding  a Train from Mumbai Central to Ahmedabad  but getting off at Borivali!

Make no mistake! This book by Chris Mayer is not  for those who seek  Instant 100-to -1 multi-bagger Success by investing in Stocks.Such 100-to-1 odds are available real time at Wealth Destroying Casinos round the world!

Chris dedicates his Book to Thomas W Phelps,the first author of  the first book on 100-Baggers

His inspiration to pen this book trails back a few years to  a Conference in 2011 where the great Investor ,Chuck Akre  made mention in his address of having read in 1972 the  Barron’s Reviewed  Book ‘100 to 1 in the Stock Market’  by Thomas Phelps which focused on compounding capital.Legendary Investor Peter Lynch talked of ten baggers but here was Thomas Phelps talking of 100 baggers ! read more

Equity Meltdown~Pulling out or Putting In!?

Equity Meltdown~Pulling out or Putting In!?

Answer this to define yourself ~ your Investment Mindset now &  your Risk Profile in general  ?

The Question should be surely in your Mind right Now as continuing Global Meltdown forces India Meltdown too with the Nifty & Sensex sinking over 3.3% today to go sub 7000 & 23000 respectively ~ down 23% in 11 months from the highs of  9119 & 30025  in the first week of  March 4,2015

Had warned you’ll in December 2014 that 2015 will be Volatile & Vulnerable and reiterated it several times in 2015….stated that 2016 looks more ominous

Worth reproducing this blogpost of mine of September 4,2015

Hoping for A Merciless Market for Higher Gains at Lower Risk !

Friday, September 4th, 2015

At the time it was of concern that the Sensex had gone sub 25500 but I yet had declared it was not a Merciless Market yet!….that’s when you can get into serious wealth creation opportunities at lower risk for higher gain !

Here’s an extract from what we had communicated  privately in early September 2015

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Hi,

We have been quiet for a few months now for a good reason. Those who are on our fundamental wavelength know what we stand for. .Too frequent communications then would have served little purpose other than the danger of generating ‘Noise’… !

What we did assess with conviction was that FPI Inflows will ebb or even reverse in 2015 from the record inflows in 2014…another reason that should mute markets…as this was played out it was ignored by a frenzied midcap space market that justified it being balanced out by increased retail participation and absorption by increased Mutual Funds Investments 

On ET Now Prime time on March 31,2015 I had aired my fundamental views for the new FY 16 that was dawning to a wider audience than just clients.I had stated that the markets were running ahead of fundamentals

Yet the Smallcaps & Midcaps had raced away in a frenzied climb last six months too & we were being questioned  why we were being relatively more conservative with dependence on Core Scrips weightage as per Risk Profiling and Asset Allocation as a discipline and  refusing to trade in and out of markets furiously especially in scrips that were touted on the street or in stock chats or in networks or on the air by experts on popular stock channels and stock portals….most were justifying the run up and urging and seducing for more participation to those especially  who thought were missing the boat…The Young were inheriting Earth !    read more

Essar Oil Delisting is Over or is It !? ~ Glitch or Golmaal !?

Essar Oil Delisting is Over or is It !? ~ Glitch or Golmaal !? 

Yesterday at 3.30 pm was the cut off time for all shares to be tendered in the Essar Oil reverse book building on BSE & NSE

The First criteria for the delisting endeavour to be considered successfull is that  at least a minimum number of 92,569,408 Shares be tendered  in valid bids from the 142489858 Equity Shares being 28.54% of the public shareholding that could

At  Closing 3.30 pm on Monday,December 21,2015  BSE & NSE showed aggregate cumulative bids for 101143045 shares

So then what’s the problem !?

1,98,99,305 shares from 8 bids all at Rs 262.80 are yet showing unconfirmed on the BSE Screen !

Seems there is a Glitch ! or was it a Golmaal !?….if so for what purpose ? …to derail the delisting effort !? If so ,why!?

Seems Ruias of Essar court controversy regularly….either they  follow it or it like a guided missile follows them !  

 The 8 Unconfirmed Bids for Rs 262.80 for 1,98,99,305 shares apparently is from the LIC Holdings of Essar Oil in their various portfolios

If you remove these unconfirmed bids then the valid bids aggregate just 81243740 shares which is short of the 92,569,408 shares requisite

BSE has referred the matter to SEBI for guidance as to whether they should accept the LIC Bids as confirmed and therefore valid….if they say ‘Yes’ and that it was a genuine issue by Stockholding who were unable to upload the bid as confirmed in time by 3.30 pm for LIC then we have the Discovered Price or Exit Price of Rs 262.80 provided this price is accepted by Oil Bidco( Mauritius ) Limited the Acquirer….they can of course offer an even higher price than this to garner more shares

Essar Oil has got to be extremely anxious for delisting….in 2014 I had raised a stink when they set a floor price of just Rs 108….SEBI had to stop the effort…..however they allowed it this time around  with a higher floor price of Rs 146.05….in my view they should not have until the Rosneft Deal price for acquiring 49% stake in Essar Oil which is being negotiated was announced

Essar Oil is anxious that the delisting takes place before the Rosneft deal as otherwise that would have triggered of an Open Offer by Rosneft and would have disturbed the Equity Stake Holdings by Essar Oil Promoters & Rosneft leaving Essar Oil Promoters vulnerable

Whatever ! ~ even if this delisting is allowed with LIC’s bid being accepted at Rs 262.80 the shareholders who bid below this price or the exit price to be announced by Oil Bidco  will also get the Discovered  Price which will now be established at a minimum of Rs 262.80. Oil Bidco can accept this Price or announce a higher one as the Exit Price .It of course can reject it and the delisting would then not have succeeded read more

Featured for second year in a row in Outlook Business for Stock Pick of 2016

 

Hey ! Check My Pick for 2016 in  the Special Edition of Outlook Business for December 2015 that features Stock Pickers & their One Pick for 2016 ~ it’s on the stands now and  is free online on the above link

Last Year in December 2014 I had been featured as One of the 10 and my pick Shemaroo for 2015 at Rs 159 had surged 102% to Rs 321+ and currently as  of December 18,2015  a year later yet quotes strong up 70% at Rs 270 .Here’s that blast from the past  link  ~ this in a year  2015 where the Sensex & Nifty are about to close the year down 7%

😆 This must have given confidence and conviction to the Outlook Business Editors to invite me yet again for the second year in a row & I accepted

For my Pick for 2016 in this Special Edition,I’ve gone with Astec LifeSciences @ Rs 238….it’s now a Godrej Group Company with a Market Cap of just over Rs 450 crs

Essar Oil surges to Rs 200+ on SEBI Order for Delisting~5 Questions for SEBI!

Essar Oil surges to Rs 200+ on SEBI Order for Delisting ~ 5 Questions for SEBI !

Essar Oil again seems to be getting away !

SEBI should have shown some muscle and teeth and independence in ordering  either :

  1.  Compulsory Delisting of Essar Oil for the all the continuing  Corporate Governance Issues it keeps raking up heedless to minority shareholders concerns and even other warnings! or
  2. Delisting only post announcement of Price at which Russia’s Rosneft is negotiating under an understanding written agreement to acquire a 49% stake in Essar Oil ~ what’s the hurry by Essar Group to delist Essar Oil now before they announce Rosneft Deal price !

Instead Essar Oil Promoter Company,Essar Energy has received what it sought from SEBI …a relaxtion on timelines of two months from the date of  November 6,2015 the SEBI Order  for the voluntary delisting and  Five days instead of two days for the despatch of documents  to shareholders and permission to delist

Essar Energy ,who filed the SEBI Application for Relaxtion in timelines,of course has agreed ( like it had any other choice !) to :

  1. Revise the Floor Price in the Delisting upward from what it had declared in 2014
  2. Pay the difference subsequently ,if any, to shareholders who tender their shares in the delisting offer and which are accepted, between the Delisting Price & the Price negotiated with Rosneft for taking over 49% of the Equity
Essar Group states there is no agreement yet that has been arrived at with Rosneft on the Price and in fact had told SEBI they were willing to pay the above difference if the Rosneft Deal took place within a year !…what if they deliberately delayed it over a year !?…thus SEBI has rightly said no timeline for this should be there Just further reconfirms the manipulating mindset of the Essar Oil Promoters in depriving minority shareholders of a fair price for delisting ~ they are also grappling more serious accusations in the 2G Telecom Scam that’s with the CBI

If you recall Essar  wanted to delist at a floor price of just Rs 108 in 2014,even before they announced the Rosneft Deal being negotiated ! ~ I had raised serious corporate governance questions then and was quoted in the media for these ….fortunately SEBI put the Essar Oil delisting on hold at floor price of Rs 108

But now I have 5 questions for Prashant Saran of SEBI who has signed this Seven Page Order and I’ve re-read it  !

  1. Why do you not proactively consider Compulsory Delisting for Essar Oil for the ever growing Corporate Governance Issues so as to invoke a 10 year ban on it’s Promoters from accessing Capital Markets again?
  2. Why allow the Voluntary Delisting before the several complaints received  by you as cited in the SEBI Order have been resolved ~ particularly the Accounting & Non Disclosure in Accounts Complaints which you are referring to ICAI for investigation ?   
  3. Why allow the Voluntary Delisting before Rosneft Price is announced !?
  4. SEBI Order is silent on this ~ What is the status of  those Minority Shareholders who decide not to participate in the Delisting but wish to decide on this later for Essar Group to buy their shares out only after Rosneft Deal Price is announced  !?
  5. Don’t you think in interest of Investor Awareness &  Protection it should be made mandatory for SEBI to put up on it’s website the names of all listed companies where investigations are pending proactively or reactively on complaints or for any other reasons along with the details of the matters being investigated ?….this has been a long standing view of mine for several years as it will greatly help in managing investing risks before any SEBI Order is actually made

No 4 above is important now that SEBI has allowed the delisting  ~ The Order is explicit in that Essar Energy will be responsible to pay any difference between delisting price and Rosneft fixed price within a specified time of two months of public announcement  to only those shareholders who have tendered  their shares in the delisting and which have been accepted ! ~ what about other shareholders who have not participated in the delisting or whose shares have not been accepted in the offer  !? ~ they too should get the full Rosneft Price if higher than the delisting price ! ~ this cannot be assumed and needs to be explicit in the Order ! 

I’m sure this is an oversight by SEBI !

Whatever !….my view remains on what SEBI should have done as expressed in the two options at the beginning of this blogpost !

I have been vocal on the corporate governance issues in the  Essar Oil Delisting Endeavour from 2014 and have been quoted in mainstream media for this…..read these past four  blogposts to get a sense of the attempt to short circuit the interests of minority shareholders

Essar Oil kissing Rs 200 ! ~ Exposes Delisting Duplicity !

Monday, July 20th, 2015 

Essar Oil on Fire at Rs 167 after delisting natak last year at Rs 108

Monday, July 6th, 2015 

Covered by Outlook Business for frowning on Essar Oil Delisting read more

Hoping for A Merciless Market for Higher Gains at Lower Risk !

As a Concerning Week comes to a close,the Sensex again has chopped off a few hundred points and gone sub 25500

I’m Hoping for A Merciless Market !  ….that’s when you can get into serious wealth creation opportunities at lower risk for higher gain !

Have held from December 2014 that 2015 will be volatile and vulnerable and had repeatedly voiced cautions on SCRIP STANDPOINT Module on my company website

which would serve you well to visit and revisit  to understand why we thought so

 

 

This is the latest note emailed by me to clients and associates  earlier this week

Hi,

We have been quiet for a few months now for a good reason. Those who are on our fundamental wavelength know what we stand for. We had cut down drastically on our ‘Buy’ recommendations  in all Modules in FY 16 till date.Too frequent communications then would have served little purpose other than the danger of generating ‘Noise’ from the exchanges !

A Communication is Now Due as to why on Indian Equities we had preferred to take the risk on Erring on the Side of Caution

Sensex closed down 2.23% or 587 points down today to close sub 25700 triggered by declaration of  Shortfall in Rain & lower that expected GDP for the last quarter 

While we are not into Equity Fundamental Advisory for Bragging Rights we must raise this issue to revalidate our cautious view held in 2015

We have held a view of Sensex Range of 25000 to 27000 for most part of this year 2015,especially after it touched 30000 on March 4,2015 after closing 2014 at 27500 levels.

We had opined in December 2014 itself and in January 2015 that the Sensex will record an all time high of 30000 early in 2015 as the three legs of the Equity Table ~Momentum,Sentiment and Liquidity ~ were all in favour although the fourth leg Valuation was beginning to raise an alert on the Corporate Earnings Front 

Early in 2015 we were unable to assess with the required degree of conviction on four domestic factors and three overseas factors that would play out in 2015.Of course everyone had a strong view or opinion on these !…these were :

Domestic Front

  • Significant Rate Cuts demanded by the Corporate Sector to revive Manufacturing Sector  ~ Yet awaited 
  • Corporate Earnings in FY 16 after a bad Q 4 FY 15 ~ Q1 & Q 2 FY 16 seem to carry forward from Q 4 FY 15 ~ Sensex FY 16 EPS projections lowering inevitable 
  • Normal Monsoon ~ After a promising June,it’s been downhill in July and August 2015 and Monsoon Shortfall is now a given
  • Pace of Economic Reforms especially on the GST ,Land and Make in India Initiatives ~ Not much Headway given the Political Opposition that has disrupted and washed out whole Parliament Sessions

Overseas Front

  • Was the record surge of Chinese Stocks backed by fundamentals 
  • Will Greece be bailed out or allowed to default and exit the Eurozone
  • When will the US Fed raise rate 

What we did assess with conviction was that FPI Inflows will ebb or even reverse in 2015 from the record inflows in 2014…another reason that should mute markets…as this was played out it was ignored by a frenzied midcap space market that justified it being balanced out by increased retail participation and absorption by increased Mutual Funds Investments  read more