Sat Feb 17 2018~Mumbai Funda Equity Workshop~Taking Stock at Sensex 36000

Hey ! Here’s the Announcement that’s been eagerly awaited for the next Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop after Full Houses in June & August 2017

Just Click on it to register

Fundamental MasterClass in Mumbai
Stock Selection ~ Value Vs Price – 2018 ~ Markets Major & Mature ~ Sensex 36000 ~ Taking Stock

Saturday, February 17, 2018

As usual it’s on a Full Saturday .This time on February 17,2018 at my Fort HO in Mumbai.The Investment,inclusive of GST etc, is Rs 18000 or Rs 16200 each for 3 or more registrations from a group

As Limited Seats,do sign up quick for debating & discussing wealth creation & destruction through direct Equity in Indian Listed Companies

We are at all time Highs on the Sensitive Indices with the Sensex at 36000+ & Nifty at 11000+

At my last August 2017 Workshop the Sensex & Nifty were at 32300 & 10000 levels.They’re up 10%+ since then in six months but the magic has been in Specific Scrips which have recorded life changing surges if you were only invested in them !

For illustration when guiding on Valuation with regards to Non Linear Earnings Potential  in the June & August Workshop I had the participants engage in a Valuation exercise for half an hour on Bombay Dyeing at Rs 70 to Rs 82 levels & draw conclusions with some convictions.It raced away to Rs 300 & it’s now at Rs 250 levels ~ yet over 200% inside six months…of course Markets have been kind too in this period

In the August Workshop we played out a 20% CAGR scenario over 5 years to explain the Magic of Compounding.We used Yuken at Rs 1877 as an illustration taking into account it’s financials,past,present & future potential.If at 5 years in 2022 it would reach Rs 4670 it would give this 20% CAGR.It’s up 150% absolute touching Rs 4700 today inside 6 months ! …Life Changing Wealth Creation in Equity is simply the Magic of Compounding in a right Selection based on the Valuation leg of the Equity Table

What Now? What Next?

Bank of America thinks Sensex will slide & close at 32000 end 2018 ….Of course in 2015 they had forecast it would be 54000 ! yes ! 54000 by end 2018 ! & Ambit thinks we are in the last stage of the Rally ~ but they’ve been remarkably bearish all of 2017 & am sure their clients must have missed the 2017 gravy train in Equities ~ While Many think we are in a huge Bull Rally for Years to come & one even has called 35000 as the new Sensex Bottom ~ Should we care about what they think ?

Or should we simply care about how to grow serious wealth through direct equity in Indian Markets & protect it while growing it ? That’s what this Workshop is about read more

2020 & 20-20 ~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat Aug 5 2017

Historic Saturday,July 1,2017~Indian Govt launches the much awaited huge Indirect Tax Reform ~ GST ~ Goods & Services Tax ~ 🙂  Here’s my GST Launch & Announcement too ~ Gaurav’s Saturday Training

2020 & 20-20 ~ The Long & Short of it ~Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, August 5, 2017  ~ Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

On the back of a  fantastic Mumbai Workshop on Saturday,June 17,2017 here’s another opportunity to invest the first Saturday in August 2017 with me ! ~ especially for those who could not make it or could not be accommodated as Registrations had closed within a week of opening ~ expecting a few repeat participants too ~ what better endorsement could there be ! ~🙂 While you can call it an Encore ,this time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept another exciting Theme to spot & assess both Long & Short Term Opportunities in Equity :

2020 & 20-20 ~ The Long & Short of it

As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Plan to cover over 25 Fundamental Opportunities in Specific Sectors & Companies  to assess Value vs Price both in the Short Term & the Longer Term ~ thus ideal for both Traders & Investors

Here’s some fresh feedback from participants of the very recent June 17,2017 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price~ Wealth Destroyers : Potential Multibaggers where we conducted Macro & Micro Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises & more & even played an animated Corporate Tambola !  ~ Some participants came in from Dubai,Malaysia,Delhi,Cochin & Ichikaranji too ~ & what a lovely & lively Mix from retail investors to HNWI market veterans & professionals from FPIs,Fund & Broking Houses & Institutions ~ spread in age from early 20’s to the 60’s

“Again Sir you Rocked & it was my fortune to attend your wonderful workshop that too three times in a row ~ it is your simplicity, down to earth nature & great FUNDA knowledge ( how to value a stock so precisely ) made me motivated to attend your w’shop again and again & i hope in future also, I will be able to attend your w’shop ~ Every w’shop is so unique”

 

“indeed a great learning & educational experience….totally luv your analysis of stocks….looking forward to the next one”

“Always fortunate to attend…get motivated by your knowledge & the attitude  you carry with…thanks for sharing your knowledge & helping people like me to grow better” read more

Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Mumbai Equity Workshop Sat June 17 2017

Wealth Destroyers as Potential Multibaggers~ Announcing a Full Day Mumbai Fundamental Equity Workshop on Saturday, June 17 2017 

🙂 This time in this Stock Selection ~Value Vs Price Workshop have kept an exciting Theme :

WEALTH DESTROYERS : POTENTIAL MULTIGAGGERS

As Limited Seats would advice to Book Your Seat right away here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Plan to cover over 25 Wealth Destroyers to assess any Turnaround Value vs Price & thus a chance to redeem themselves and become Wealth Creators from here… or should just one move on in many of such Wealth Destroyers that are now beyond redemption

Here’s what some participants said of the December 2016 Mumbai Fundamental Workshop on Stock Selection : Value Vs Price…and this was before IB Ventures zoomed 7 x in months from Rs 20 to Rs 140 & HOV doubled in the same time to cross Rs 300… we had covered both these & more in Earnings & Asset Basis Valuation exercises

“Amazing… Awesome Session about Fundamental Stock Selection & Wealth Creation ”

“Full of Inspiration, filled with wisdom…. am really proud to be a part of this wonderful session”

 & from a repeat participant “recreated the same old magic of Bangalore in Mumbai… great Saturday”  

Would love to interact with you ~ So do invest one Saturday ,June 17, 2017 with me in my Mumbai Fort Office near BSE and above Starbucks & Croma

Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

Here’s the Detailed Template of this Workshop if you want more details on coverage

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🙂 See you Saturday, June 17, 2017 at my Mumbai Fort Office Conference Room… we’ll figure out if Suzlon will continue to be ZZZZZlon!  & dissect many such Wealth Destroyers!

Cheers !

Sterlite Tech Shareholders short circuited in the Demerger ! ?

Sterlite Technologies (STL) Shareholders short circuited in the Demerger ! ?

I was approached to buy some unlisted shares of Sterlite Power Transmission Ltd (SPTL) & then was astounded when told an offer had already come in for Rs 270 already !

So what’s the Big Issue ? ~ How Can the Value of unlisted SPTL change dramatically upward by over 300% from Rs 112.30( as on March 31,2015 cut off date) that the company offered for in the demerger of STL  and paid in August 2016 & just eight months later value the same atR s 464.46 ! on March 2,2017 when they announced an EGM for March 29,2017 to issue new shares !(Details Below)

It’s thus  to do with the low Valuation of unlisted SPTL as on cut off date March 31,2015 that was the subsidiary of listed STL that got the Power Division of  STL in the Demerger & then ceased to be a subsidiary post demerger.

Haribhakti & Co LLC did the valuation on a NAV (for Holding Co) & Income DCF Approach (for Operations) at a maximum of  Rs 111.50 /share.Price Waterhouse & Co LLC also used similar Valuation approach and got  mariginally higher Maximum Valuation of Rs 112.30.Both had valued SPTL below Rs 900 crs only ! despite Income Approach having to consider Potential of Scale Operations in coming years.Both Valuation Reports are dated May 18,2015 in sync with STL Board Meeting Date as below.STL has gone with PWC

These are the relevant Dates  & all relevant documents for Shareholder/Court/Exchanges Permissions & Approvals can be found here :

May 18,2015 ~ Board of STL in a corporate restructuring decision approves the Scheme of Arrangement between the Demerged Company STL & Resulting Company SPTL (then subsidiary of STL)effective date April 1,2015.Decides to keep SPTL unlisted unlike the Adani Group that listed Adani Transmission after their restructuring exercise

December 15,2015~ Court Convened Meeting of STL Shareholders passes the Scheme

April 22,2016 ~ Mumbai High Court issues an Order approving the Scheme

May 23,2016 ~ Order becomes effective on date of filing with Registrar of Companies

June 15 & 16,2016 ~ STL begins ex demerger quote on June 15,2016 as Company has set June 16,2016 as record date for STL shareholders entitled to receive Demerger benefits of SPTL.SPTL ceased to be a subsidiary of STL on this Demerger & it was decided to keep it unlisted unlike the Adani Group which demerged & listed Adani Transmission.

June 27, 2016 to August 8,2016 ~ Election Date Range for @ 122000 shareholders in STL up from under 120000 shareholders at June 30,2015 when the Demerger plans were announced in May 2015 and I wrote a detailed blogpost in July 2015 (see later below) .There were two options for Resident Shareholders ~ receive Equity Shares of  SPTL at Rs 112.30 (FV Rs 2) in a 1: 5 ratio for shares held in STL or go for the 8% Preference reedeemable shares of Rs 112.30 in the same 1: 5 ratio that would be reedeemed at Rs 125.55 in eighteen months from allottment.FPI/FIIs?Non Resident shareholders had to sell their shares back to the Promoters or their affiliates. read more

Equity ~Life Changers or Life Maimers ?

Equity ~Life Changers or Life Maimers ?

This Thought was inspired by a Whatsapp Forward received this morning titled Power of Equity .It listed many Life Changing Wealth Creators that grew many fold from just Rs 10000 invested in each  & carried a concluding Message in Capitals ” INVEST WISELY WITH LOTS OF PATIENCE “

This was the List & I’m assuming the Years & CAGR Maths is correct with Dividends not being considered :

  1. Eicher Motors-1992 => Rs 80 lakhs
  2. Asian Paints-1986 => Rs 90 lakhs
  3. HDFC -1990 => Rs One Crore
  4. Brittania – 1985 => Rs 1.06 crs
  5. MRF – 1985 => Rs 1.10 crs
  6. BOSCH -1985 => Rs 1.20 crs
  7. Amara Raja -1991 => Rs 1.25 crs
  8. Shree Cement -1990 => Rs 2.90 crs
  9. Infosys – 1993 => Rs 3 crs
  10. Dr Reddys -1986 => Rs 10 crs
  11. WIPRO -1981 => Rs 400 crs

Cannot Argue with this Message for I’ve seen three of my Scrips,in even relatively quick time inside five years of investment too becoming over 100 Baggers ~Matrix Labs( early Millenium & now delisted as sold to Mylan),Mercator(early Millenium) & WIPRO ( from 1997 to  early 2001)

It is rare for most investors to live the Conviction & Temperament to hold for long & ride the Huge Life Changing Gains.Imagine if more than Rs 10000 had been invested in each of the above,especially WIPRO!

However my Thought is what about Wrong Convictions on the High Fliers that became Wealth Destroyers &  Life Maimers !

Here are a few of them ,most yet listed & struggling to revive & how much worth would your Rs 10000 invested in each of them be now ….most are Horror Stories of the past decade or a little more…sure you can contribute more…My Horror Stories  have been the Damania Group’s Damania Capital Markets to mention one.Bad Judgement Call that Cost!It was compulsory delisted in July 2004.

~Suzlon -2005=>Rs 842  &  2008=>Rs 348 ! => 92% to 97% wiped out after considering 10:2 Split in January 2008 when it reached an all time high of Rs 2300 before split.Current Price Rs 16.Promoter Tulsi Tanti is yet on board though Dilip Shanghvi of Sun Pharma Group has acquired a major stake in it @ Rs 18 in February 2015.Mandatory Open Offer at Rs 18 to other Shareholders in January 2016 met with no success.The Share Price had raced to Rs 30 from where it has halved & is below the Open Offer & Stake Price of Rs 18.Shareholders hold out Hope of Revival back to Glory Days in the years ahead under Dilip Shanghavi.So far it’s been a muted share price trading range in recent months.

~Unitech-2006 => Rs 505 => 95% wiped out after adjusting for 12:1 Bonus & 10:2 Split in June 2006 & 1:1 Bonus in Aug 2007.Reached a high of Rs 14800 in 2006 before Bonus & split .Current Price under Rs 6

~Kingfisher Airlines-2006/7 => 0 ! => 100% wiped out & scrip suspended for trading from 2012/2013 & restricted trading from June 2015 ~ reached a High of Rs 335 in 2007 read more

Great Interaction at the Saturday Equity Workshop

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Great Interaction at the Saturday Fundamental Equity Value vs Price Mumbai Workshop…we began at 9.30 am & concluded just before 8 pm,breaking just for Lunch ~ Lovely Ginger Tea was served & welcomed heartily thrice & tetrapak drinks once during the day during the interaction & presentation itself !

As expected the November 8,2016  Demonetisation Announcement & it’s immediate implementation  & it’s continuing  Impact on Equity Markets was debated for awhile on whether stated Objectives will be met or are they really any ulterior motives

Also briefly brought up was the ugly & messy ongoing tussle in the Tata Group to oust Cyrus Mistry as Chairman & also as Director from the Tata Companies he’s on Board & how will all of this impact Tata Companies Share Prices

We did cover quite a lot with the enthusiasm  peaking while covering the Assets,Earnings & Market Relative & Absolute Valuation Basis to assess many Listed Companies,from Core to Penny Stocks to some in the news…. all at latest Friday December 2,2016 Prices

The Feedback has been very warm as were the participants as they had great fun in interacting with each other too ,especially when playing the Trust & Investment Games…..I’m sure they will vie with each other to buy out TCS at US $ 60 billion or more EV if Ratan Tata does really decide to influence the Board to plan to sell !  🙂

Participant views on the Sensex Trend in the short term  were interesting….a few had no view,a few expect sideways movement while one really enthusiastic & unmarried participant from out of town (he came again inside a few months for his second workshop with me) thinks it will crash to 13000 while a married participant was optimistic in stating it will regain 29000  in early 2017….we discussed this threadbare & whether Index Trend really mattered in Stock Selection….we also covered Passive Index Investing vs Active Investing

Yeah ! You Guys were real cool & am glad you’ll  all left with some meaningful Insights than when you walked into the Workshop  &  have strengthened your confidence & conviction to apply them in Practice for serious Wealth Creation through Direct Equity

While all of you walked out with a Kit,Memento, & literally a Tin of ‘Sweet’ Memories,I was particularly impressed,when asked by me to decide, with your immediate & unanimous vote for the ones who walked away with the rewards for the best interaction read more