India’s Power Generation capacity is 147403 MW…Deficit is 20000 MW

As of December 2008,the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) reports that India’s Power Generation Capacity is 147402.81 MW,up 8651 MW from 2007…India continues to reman a power deficit country…Current Deficit is 20000 MW

NTPC,a leading PSU, is the biggest  generator with 28333.99 MW from the Eleven Central Sector PSUs…It may be recalled that Reliance Power,in the Private Sector, has plans to generate 28000 MW by 2016…By Then NTPC capacity would have surged pass 65000 MW

The Eleventh Five Year Plan 2007-2012 has a revised planned creation of 92000 MW…But with India targeting high single digit GDP Growth Rate over the next several years,the demand for power too will surge…It will be only in the Twelth Five Year Plan 2012-2017 that the power demand and supply curve will cross

Mckinsey in their report ‘Powering India-Road to 2017’ estimates that the Power Demand  will be 335000 MW in 2017 …Interestingly last year,amidst great controversy and opposition .both in India and in USA,both countries signed a Nuclear Treaty to facilitate purchase of Uranium by India and setting up of Nuclear Reactors for Civil Purposes  

The Breakup on various parameters of India’s Installed Power Generating Capacity of 147402.81 MW makes interesting reading

INDIA‘S INSTALLED POWER GENERATING CAPACITY OF 147402.81 MW AT DEC 2008

By Mode

By Sectors

By State

Feed

MW

%

Sector

MW

%

State

MW

%

Coal

77458.88

52.55

State/UT

76185.57

51.69

Mah

10563.54

7.17

Gas

14734.01

10

Andhra P

7370.16

5

Diesel

1199.75

0.81

Central PSUs

48970.99

33.22

Karnataka

5838.52

3.96

Nuclear

4120

2.80

West Ben

5808.56

3.94

Hydro

36647.76

24.86

Private

22246.25

15.09

Gujarat

5701.30

3.87

Renewable

13242.41

8.98

Others

112120.73

76.06

 

147402.81

100

 

147402.81

100

 

147402.81

100

 Some Observations

  • Thermal Power Generation is 2/3 rds of the Capacity
  • Hydro Power Generation is 1/4 th of the Capacity 
  • Coal Based Plants at 52% are over half the Capacity
  • Much Hyped Mode…Nuclear Power plants currently contribute less than 3% of Capacity…even with the implementation of the controversial Indo -USA Nuclear Treaty,this percentage will only marginally go up to @ 5% in the next Ten years
  • Renewal Sources contribute under 10% of Capacity currently…There is great potential to increase this percentage to reduce dependency on Coal,Oil and Gas Sources 
  • 85% of Capacity is from the Public Sector
  • The role of the Private Sector may assume more focus and it may contribute more in the future than the current 15% to Capacity 
  • Of 28 States and 7 Union Territories,Maharashtra leads with over 7% of Capacity

An additional capacity of only 8651 MW was created in 2008…To achieve Five Year Plan Targets,the incremental annual capacities should be close to 18500 MW…otherwise it may take much longer than 2017 for the demand/supply curve to cross

Major Constraints in Developing the Power Generation Capacities have been

  • Government Equipment Procurement Procedures 
  • Project Implementation Delays
  • Saturation in Capacities of Engineering Companies in Setting up of Power Plant Infrastructure and delays in their increasing their Capacities
  • Delay in Allotment and Development of Coal Mines…largely on account of delays in land acquisitions and in obtaining government clearances and  multiple mine allottees for the same mine
  • States Dominating the Distribution of Power…State Electricity Board ( SEB) Losses are legendary…it impedes the State’s capability to invest further to augment existing capacities and also discourages Private Investors from providing Capital to do so….Distribution Losses are reportedly a criminal 40% of generated and transmitted Power

If India has to Grow to be one of the top Three World Economies in the next Two decades,as is expected, Power Capacities have to scale up significantly and fast…Government is well aware of this and has been introducing Power Reforms…The Electricity Act of 2003,CERC,Exchanges for Power Trading,Privatisation to highlight a few

Despite constraints,some  due to  coalition politics,the Power Sector has the Power to  create  Multifold Gains for those who invest in this sector as a Business or even  just as an Investor…but these will play out over the Long Term…Ten Years and Beyond

Consider three Listed PSU Power Plays for your Long Term Portfolio…BHEL,NTPC and PTC…You’ll get an opportunity to buy these at Distress Prices when the Sensex follows further DOW Declines and seeks even lower levels  from 8900 levels today         read more

Indo US Nuclear Deal ratified by the USA President,Bush on Gandhi Jayanti

Stark Reality this !…..The US Senate passed the Indo Nuclear Deal by a resounding 86 to 13 Vote on October 1,2008 …..Next Day was Gandhi Jayanti and the USA President,George Bush ratified the Deal….Mahatma Gandhi stood for Ahimsa and Non Violence…was it just a stark coincidence or was it what James Redfield,a modern day thinker, termed as “Synchronicity” in his book “Celestine Prophecy” or was it ” Secrets of Shambala” ?

The contrast of “Nuclear” and “Non Violence” was meant to be juxtaposed like this!

Currency Bundles agitatedly presented in Lok Sabha by three BJP MPs as Proof of Buying MPs by the UPA Alliance to win the Trust Vote

Hey Guys ! How can you blame Ekta’s Serial Plots which are brainwashed on us through various TV Channels…..there is enough inspiration available…look at what transpired just now in the Lok Sabha !….Three BJP Members opened up a bag and exhibited for the whole world to see the Currency Bundles that were given to them to buy their Vote or abstain from giving one at this evening’s Trust Vote to save the UPA Government

This is what I say….last evening the Media showed us how our PM,Mr Manmohan Singh,walked towards the Cameras and to a question posed ,said emphatically that if there is any proof of Cash having been paid to buy Opposition MPs then let the Opposition provide proof !…He should have realised that this would Invite Big Trouble….This is exactly what happened…as if on cue you had the three BJP MPs,two from Madhya Pradesh and one from Rajasthan literally producing the Proof in the Lok Sabha !….stating that they were given an advance of Rs One Crore which they flashed and were promised Rs Three Crores each by the Samajwadi Party !…..now you will have even more charges and uncouth language exchanged between our elected representatives and leaders

The UPA Alliance says this is a big gameplan premeditated and preplanned by the NDA Alliance as they had realised they would have lost the Vote….they should have informed the Speaker in advance about this and not flashed it like they did…Mulayam Singh says it’s a BJP “Shadyantra” and the BJP MP Ashok Argal who flashed the bundles should be immediately arrested and the Small Bag and Bundles tested for fingerprints…also how could such a small bag hold Rs One Crore!……reminds me of when the Late Harshad Mehta held a press conference to disclose that he had given a bribe of Rs One Crore to the then PM Mr Narsimha Rao …at that time too there was doubt as to how the money could have been fit into a suitcase!

The NDA Alliance wants the PM to resign .They say this is JMM 2

What more can I say !? The PM asked them to show proof of Corruption and BJP had done so…I’m not even shocked by the way it was done…it was inevitable in this slugfight of a trust vote….now the ball is back in PM’s Court to prove that this proof is merely planted proof…as Lalu Prasad screamed that these BJP MPs must have gone back home and got this money from their own homes

PM,if you wanted to win here…then you should have stayed true to your nature and kept silent instead of taunting the BJP to provide Proof of corruption. read more

Trust Vote Today : Singh is Kinng ! Singh is Kinng ! Singh is Kinng! ?

There is a trust vote in the Lok Sabha today as the ruling UPA Government will attempt to prove it’s majority with new support from the Samajwadi Party and after the withdrawal of support from the Left

And there is a reason why I’ve sang in chorus thrice the current hot favorite song “Singh is Kinng !” in the blog’s title….and yes “Kinng” is spelt with two “n”s and the movie of the same name has yet to be released….because there are three leading “Singhs” in the UPA Alliance now….Manmohan Singh,Mulayam Singh and Amar Singh…The “?” is because the vote is scheduled for this evening and we’ll know the fate of the trust vote only after the actual Vote on it concludes.

Looks like UPA will sail through by a slender margin…less said the better about the cross voting and abstentions expected,ministerships promised,the horsetrading going on,accusations of crores changing hands to buy MPs and whimsical alliances where foes becoming friends to fight other foes who were friends earlier ! ….while I write this blog ,the speaker of the Lok Sabha,Somnath Chatterjee, has just commented live in Parliament Session “I think the Parliament has reached it’s Lowest !”…this is when Rahul Gandhi is speaking on the Debate and opposition members are cursing loudly….speaker has directed that nothing should be recorded

However even if the UPA sails through the victory will be pyrrhic…won at too high a cost to be worthwhile

Stock Markets have been buoyant for three days in a row now and as I write this the Sensex is up  304 point today at 14154 at 12.43 pm…it’s gained smartly nearly 1500 points inside three days as it is expected that the UPA will speed up financial banking ,pension and insurance reforms after winning the trust vote today with the support of their new allies,the Samajwadi Party….the reforms were opposed strongly by the Left.

Methinks whatever the outcome of this Trust Vote,there will be General Elections later this Year….earlier than normally scheduled in mid 2009 which would have been at the end of the full five years of government

The Indo-US Nuke Treaty : Ask Just Two Questions

Why is India pushing for the Nuclear Agreement with USA ?

&

Why is USA pushing for the Nuclear Agreement with India ?

despite there being sizeable opposition in both countries to this Deal

Let’s address the first question.

India,clearly needs significant additional Power Generation to sustain it’s GDP growth for the next few decades.In fact from the current US $ I Trillion economy ,if India grows at 7% to 8% CAGR it will cross US $ 4 Trillion in the next 20 years.Any higher rate of growth will see it becoming a US $ 6 Trillion economy in this period !

‘Powering India—the road to 2017’, a report by global consultancy firm McKinsey states that India will need $600 billion to meet electricity demand that may triple to 3,35,000 mw by 2017 and it will face a huge shortage of power if it does not act now. 

India’s Hydel and Thermal Power Generation Capacities and those generated by Altrenative Sources like Wind and Solar would just not be enough to cope with an expected Power Demand

So what’s the opposition about ? ! Well for One it’s the way the UPA Government has gone about this whole process.Full Transperancy and Communication from Day One would have been a better idea.

A more compelling argument is that many believe that India will surrender some part of it’s sovereignty in that it will not be able to conduct further nuclear tests or it will risk facing stoppage of the supply of uranium which is the feed to the reactors.Australia,who holds 25% of the world’s uranium reserves, has already taken a  U turn as the Labour Party has come into power and stated that it will not supply any uranium to India as India had not signed the 1970 Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty.The risk is that if supplies do stop there is very little “corrective measures” (Draft IAEA Agreement) that India can take to keep the reactors in operation….The Reactors would at best serve as gigantic storage Bins…like the silos that store Wheat!…and they would have cost India over US $ 40 billion to build

The arguments on higher creation costs (Nuclear :Rs 6 crores/MW against Thermal :Rs 4 crores/MW) and safety issues (Chernobyl Disaster in 1986 in Ukraine was more due to lack of safegaurds prescribed by IAEA and the Three Mile Island Leakage was controlled by conventional means) are less compelling.

Now let’s tackle the second question as to why USA is pushing for this deal.

Clearly USA benefits two fold with this deal. read more