GauravBlog Logo

A Lion’s eye on the Bulls and Bears

“In India, companies may fall sick, but promoters rarely do!”

Gaurav's Blog

Categories

Telecom

PM Manmohan Singh finally chooses to break his Silence on Pressing Challenges and Accusations on Corruption and Inflation among others……would have been better if he had stayed silent

Our PM Manmohan Singh called for this Meeting this morning at 11 am at his residence at 7 Racecourse Road,New Delhi with the Top Editors of Media Channels to break his silence on a Host of Issues challenging his Coalition administration and India currently and field questions from the Editors

 

It was naive to expect him to expose his coalition and party colleagues on Corruption……He said nothing that we do not know already !

 

My sense was he should have remained Silent……

 

Because what came out from his 90 minutes live telecast meeting was this……

 

HONESTY….that we have his assurance that he was dead serious of bringing to book all wrong doers regardless of the position they occupy….he asserted that they will not escape this time….but he has been unable to live up to his promise of 90 days on exposing the culprits on the Commonwealth Games Corruption as due process of law has to be followed,however frustratingly long it takes

 

HELPLESSNESS….On the Twin Demons of Rising Inflation and Corruption,without precedence in Scale…the PM expressed helplessness on Inflation,especially food inflation confessing that we did not have all the tools to fight this…we have no control of International events….India is now an open economy and will be impacted…we are trying to combat inflation without compromising on GDP Growth …..On the Issue of Corruption,the PM raised the politics of Coalition Compulsions….but tell me Mr PM,where is coalition compulsion in the Scams of Adarsh Housing,Commonwealth Games,Black Monies in Swiss Banks and ISRO-Devas Space Spectrum !….you can pass the blame on coalition compulsions only where the huge 2G Scam is concerned where the world knows of Coalition Partner DMK’s involvement…..on one hand you are assuring us that all wrong doers will be brought to book while on the other hand you are trying to cover up the alleged involvement of Congress Higher Ups in Huge Scams by deflecting the blame on Main opposition party BJP and your Coalition Partners !

 

HILARITY…..Mr PM, you are well recognised as an Economist too and as Father of Modern Reforms in India when as Finance Minister in 1991 you initiated some path breaking economic reforms…so I was completely flabergasted when you drew parallels between the 2G Scam Loss and the Food,Fuel and Fertiliser Subsidies !….Hilarious !….and completely unacceptable…..The 2G Scam was facilitated to benefit a few corporates and their Promoters to the tune of thousands of Crores !…..by selling the treasured national asset of spectrum at cheap rates to a predecided selected few corporates,some even ineligible !,and who lost no time in making obscene profits of thousands of crores by leveraging on this asset by selling of huge chunks of their Equity at fantastic valuations …….clearly this was the predecided nexus gameplan between politicians and bureaucrats and the beneficiaries……and therefore clearly it is logical to assume that the beneficaries passed on some of the benefit  back into the nexus in various ways…probably some before and some after getting the spectrum……How in the hell can you compare this Loss to the Exchequer to the Subsidies on Food,Fuel and Fertilisers !…..current telecom Minister,Kapil Sibal wants us to believe that 2G  is a Zero loss ! while CBI has just stated yesterday that it is easily Rs 50000 crs and counting,while CAG report says it could be as high as Rs 176000 crs !…..the rationale of Subsidies is that the Poor should not feel the brunt of Rising Input Prices and therefore they,like farmers, are accomodated with Tax Payers therefore paying for this accomodation…the beneficiaries of the subsidies are therefore targeted to be the millions of the poor in India read more

Of Barkha Dutt and Nira Radia & A Raja…..Taped Conversation between Barkha and Nira establishes the unholy and dangerous nexus between Influential Media Personalities & Power Brokers and Politicians

I was intrigued why Arnab Goswami of ‘Times Now’ held up on screen the latest issue of Vinod Mehta’s Outlook magazine that has run a cover story on the Tapes that have the private telephone conversations between celebrated TV Anchor,also awarded the  Padma Shri, Barkha Dutt of NDTV and Power Broker and Lobbyist ( guised as a PR Consultant) Nira Radia…..he simply could not miss this opportunity to score over a rival channel NDTV and it’s celebrated Anchor,Barkha Dutt ! 

Click on http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIgOItvvsS8 to hear these revealing conversations…clearly establishing the nexus between the Media,the Power Brokers and the Politicians 

In late 2008 I had blogged post 26/11 on dangerous live coverage by the Media that included Barkha Dutt too, of the 26/11 terrorist strike in Mumbai…..she had a controversial reporting record too,especially her Kargil War coverage….revist this on

Mumbai Terrorist Seige : How even the Mainstream Indian TV Media Lost it’s Marbles !

Friday, December 5th, 2008 

Over Two Years ago too on November 4,2008 I had also blogged on the 2G Spectrum Scam…revist this at 

Conspiracy of Silence : The Officially sanctioned loot of Rs 60000 crs in the Telecom Sector ! …. November 4,2008

Two years later the past has clearly caught up with Barkha Dutt,Nira Radia and DMK’s A Raja as the 2G Spectrum Scam has been exposed by the CAG in full detail naming the beneficiaries….ADAG Companies,Videocon Group,Unitech Group and Swan Telecom among others….now the Supreme Court has even questioned our PM on his inaction and silence in this matter 

Yet I remain an Optimist….love being an Indian in India….always have

Cheers !  

UPA…Coalition Government…Coalition Corruption….but what’s the alternative!?

INDIA is outraged at this continuing scale of Corruption

As India’s GDP grows past US $ 1.4 trillion,so does the Corruption scale in tandem….the CAG Report just tabled in Parliament notes that the Loss to the National Exchequer in the 2G Spectrum Sale was a whopping Rs 176645 lakh crores if one considers the 3G realisations this year….that’s close to US $ 40 Billion !….that’s nearly 3% of our GDP !….would have taken care of half our Fiscal Deficit !

UPA Government lead by Congress with it’s Political allies for now…notably and yet DMK from Tamil Nadu,whose A Raja was the Telecom Minster who is alleged to have caused this Loss….they defend that this a presumptive loss…in that no real money has been lost !…but this money could,should and would have actually come to the Government and Public Domain from the Private Corporate Sector….the Telecom Minister deliberately contravened,tweaked,violated policy and procedures and even ignored  PMO’s advice and sold the 2G spectrum asset dirt cheap to favoured corporate groups….Swan (fronting Anil Ambani Group),Videcon,Unitech are some of the names …..surely some in the government were favoured in return…this is not presumptive ! …many of these groups were ineligible….many have yet to start their service even after nearly three years….and many quickly went on to sell equity stakes at five and ten times valuations based on the relatively meagre quantum of  2G Licensing fees paid…this too is not presumptive!    

Opposition party BJP wants a Joint Parliamentary Committtee (JPC) Probe…..JPC has never really been a successful tool….more of a whitewash…..more to protect from more skeletons coming out from the cupboard of all political parties…..MP’s across Political Parties cannot agree on the Floor of the Houses !…what will they concur with in a JPC !…you will get many dissent notes

Congress wants the due process to be followed of the CAG Report moving to the Public Accounts Committee (PAC)….but the PAC has no judicial authority…it merely reviews the CAG Report to check for appropriateness and completeness of conclusions backed by adequate supportings…it can merely delete or alter the wordings in the CAG report

INDIA wants the perpetrators to be pinpointed and punished fast….and be jailed

Our Supreme Court has even just questioned our Prime Minister,Manmohan Singh to explain his inaction in this 2G Scam and as to why A Raja was retained as Telecom Minister and not asked to step down much earlier….One of the Panelists on the TV spoke this of our PM ” He only listens to Uncle Sam and Sonia Ma’am !” read more

Raju and Raja bajaye India ka Baaja !

Raju and Raja bajaye India ka baaja !

Satyam’s Raju and DMK’s A Raja,our Telecom Minister….the two ‘R’s that have scammed India bigtime

The Supreme Court send Raju back to jail today,refusing to give him any extension to surrender after cancelling his bail which he allegedly got on health grounds and stayed free for 9 months using his poiltical clout !

…..but our Telecon (delberately misspelt) Sinster Minister,A Raja of the DMK continues to be the Minister….His matter is pending before the Supreme Court…and we hope the Apex Court comes good here too

……meanwhile the CAG,our nations’s accounting watchdog, has submitted a report that the 2G Telecom License Scam is very serious and amounts to Rs 170000 crores ! …it’s confirms what all of India knows all along of what A Raja blatantly  did,even ignoring the PM and the TRAI’s advice…that is creating circumstances and impossible deadlines at a moments notice and whimsically extending application date but deciding later that only applications that came in by a certain earlier date would be valid….so that the 2G licenses in 2007 went to favoured parties…..some were telecom novices and did not even meet the eligibility criteria….. and that too at the extremely low 2001 rates

……establishes a corrupt nexus between Corporate Czars and Politicians brokered by Power Brokers and Wheelers and Dealers who masquerade as PR & Consultancy outfits and individuals….welcome to Democracy!…welcome to Indian Democracy! 

…..it’s like this…DMK is a Congress ally in forming the UPA Coalition government that runs our nation…..”You want our support,then allow us to loot!…that’s a Coalition reality that DMK has confronted Congress with…..just praying that Congress is not involved in this 2G scam !…otherwise all hell will break loose !….because A Raja could not have walked this alone !…too big a scam for him to conceptualise and manage ! ….he could not have been the mastermind !

….and Rs 170000 crs !…that’s nearly US $ 40 billion !…that’s 3% of our GDP !….would have helped remove our deficits in 2007 and 2008 when we were jammed with Crude Oil at record highs of US $ 140+…..Phew !

….India is in the LPG Era…Liberalisation,Privatisation and Globalisation….so are our Corporate Czars,our Bureaucrats and our Politicians !…..they assume that the ‘End justifies the Means !’….they will soon realise that the ‘Means will justify their ‘End’ !’  read more

Reliance Industries at Rs 1055….”The Best Years Lie Ahead” says Mukesh Ambani…how does it stack up against Global Giants?

Switched on my mobile this morning after a few days of tackling a tough Viral…thank you guys for all your “get well” wishes…they worked

Listened to the live broadcast on stock channels of Mukesh Ambani at the 36th AGM of RIL this morning in Mumbai rolled out the roadmap ahead for his Group…this are a few interesting bytes that really caught my ear

  • Now with the rescinding of the Non Compete Agreement with brother,Anil Ambani’s (ADA) Group, Mukesh Ambani’s RIL Group will enter the Power Industry in a very big way…a blueprint is being prepared….what is amusing however is that despite discovering and drilling Gas from the KG Basin,RIL will not execute any gas based project till 2022…so it’s going to be coal based,hydel,nuclear and alternative energies projects….ironically it is supplying this Gas to Other Fertiliser and Power Plants as directed by the Government…even to ADA Group Power Plants when they are ready to accept and if the Government directs then
  • Organised Retail has earned Revenues of Rs 4500 crs in 2009/10….in just Five Years it will jump ten fold to Rs 45000 crs !…..keeping in mind that RIL is the first Indian Company to cross Rs 200000 crs turnover this year,this would be a great contributor 

Anything BIG to earn and HIGH growth rates forecast,then rely on RIL to enter that sector….Petrochemicals,Petroleum,Retail,Infrastructure….nowTelecom,Pharma,Healthcare,Power,Education.

What next ?

How about Information Technology …RIL can take a look at the three World Tech Giants,Google,Apple and Microsoft……have a look at this Comparative Table I’ve prepared…RIL against Peers and these three Tech Giants…I’ve used todays ref rate US $ =Rs 46.14 for translating RIL’s Share Price of Rs 1055 and Market Cap of Rs 345135 crs…However RIL Financials are as sourced from RIL’s website (imputed rate used by them is US $ =Rs 44.64)…for the other Global Giants,the figures are sourced from the NYSE/Nasdaq 

KEY COMPARATIVE STATISTICS : RIL v/s Global Peers and Global Tech Giants

 

Key Stat

Unit

RIL

ExxonMobil

BP

Apple

Microsoft

Google

 

Share Price

US $

22.75

63

32

272

26

500

Market Cap

US $ b

75

294

99

247

231

159

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenues

US $ b

44.6

301

266

51

59

25

PAT

US $ b

3.6

21

20

11

17

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cash

US $ b

4.9

13.8

7

23

37

26.5

Debt

US $ b

13.9

9.5

32

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trailing PE

Multiple

21

14

5

23

13.7

22.8

Forward PE

Multiple

15

9

4.3

17

11.4

15.7

Price/Book

Multiple

2.7

2.6

0.9

6.3

5

4

Clearly the Tech Giants rule the Exchanges in terms of Valuation and even Market Caps…High Multiples,High Profits and Profit Margins,Low or No Debt,Rising Revenues with new product launches have worked wonders for the three Tech Giants

RIL always thinks BIG…..Organic Growth in Technology Sector will take ages…But with a Market Cap of relatively lower US $ 75 b and the fact that 1/3rd of Capital Employed is through Debt even Inorganic Growth looks difficult for RIL to take over a major World Giant among it’s peers and even the Tech sector if it wants to enter it….what does look interesting is the Infotel playout it has just started with a near US $ 4 b layout…I’ve got their presentation on this and shall be examining it closely sometime soon

So are RIL’s Best Years Ahead as Mukesh Ambani assured shareholders today ?….With strong proven large scale project implementation capabilities RIL surely is excited about the opportunities opening up in India and even overseas…RIL is already a Giant in India in it’s Operations…With It’s Expansion Plans in Petrochemicals,it’s new big scale forays in diversified fields,it hopes to be reckoned as a Global Giant

It’s Best Years may certainly be ahead,but the above table shows it’s got a hell of a lot of catching up to do with Global Giants read more

Exposed to EMR in Mumbai because of Proliferation of Mobile Cell Towers…Scary

Scary…I live in Mumbai….just saw ‘Headlines Today’ broadcasting a joint survey with Tehelka on Radiation Fears in Mumbai because of the Cell Towers….Tolerant levels are 600 milliwatts/sq meter…but in many areas the level is high at over 4000 !…especially around top hospitals…making patients more vulnerable to just than what afflicts them

Just a few months ago,the media had reported the uncanny incidents of Cancer Cases on several consecutive floors of Mumbai’s famous old skyscraper,’Usha Kiran’ on prime Carmichael Road in South Mumbai…Affected Families blame the radiation from a Cell Transmission Tower on the Building opposite….i live a few minutes away from this building…but not in direct line of the radiation…some consolation !…Scary

The Health Hazards intensify as years of exposure go by…over eight years of EMR exposure may lead to life threatening Brain Tumours….even a few years of exposure may result in short term memory loss,headaches,loss of appetite and sleep disorders

Scary…there are over 1600 unauthorised Cell Towers in Mumbai…that’s over 50% of the total towers in Mumbai…..Price we pay for being Mobile 24 by 7 with strong signals and minimum Voice breaks or cutoffs

Scroll to Top