Seminars & Workshops

Sensex Beating Stock Select Portfolio Performance in under Three months

4 Comments / Investing Themes, Reflections, Seminars & Workshops, STOCKS, VALUATION / By Gaurav Parikh

From our Stock Watch of over 300 Scrips these 16 are our Stock Select releases or re-releases on May 4,2009 for as Portfolio Ideas…These are based on Fundamentals and the idea of putting them on this Blog is to assert that even if you were anti-equity and ignored the March 2009 Lows and Sensex of 8000,you could yet have entered beginning May 2009 at Sensex levels of 11500 and made some good returns

No	Company	Opening Value May 4,2009 in Rs	Current Price July 21,2009 in Rs	Gain / Loss in Rs	Gain / Loss in %
1	Aftek Ltd	9.22	15.35	6.13	66.49
2	Ahmedabad Steelcraft Ltd	15.35	14.17	-1.18	-7.69
3	Allahabad Bank	52.50	84.95	32.45	61.81
4	Bharat Heavy Electricals ..	1651.75	2220.35	568.60	34.42
5	Dena Bank	37.10	52.50	15.40	41.51
6	Grasim Industries Ltd	1778.40	2772.00	993.60	55.87
7	GVK Power & Infrastructur..	38.50	43.15	4.65	12.08
8	IFCI Ltd	25.15	50.50	25.35	100.80
9	Infrastructure Developmen..	76.45	140.60	64.15	83.91
10	Jaiprakash Associates Ltd	138.80	222.25	83.45	60.12
11	Lanco Infratech Ltd	334.05	381.15	47.10	14.10
12	Larsen & Toubro Ltd	879.55	1456.70	577.15	65.62
13	NIIT Ltd	32.00	60.65	28.65	89.53
14	Reliance Industries Ltd	1802.70	2029.60	226.90	12.59
15	S.Kumars Nationwide Ltd	25.15	39.30	14.15	56.26
16	Shree Rama Multi-Tech Ltd	3.79	5.14	1.35	35.62

Some Observations and Comments

In less than three months,the performance of most have been very good…Nine of the Sixteen have surged over 50%…The seven that have not ,have also seen a surge from March 2009 lows and their northwards movements have decelerated from May
GVK and Lanco were recommended on May 21,2009 and NIIT on May 19,2009…all the others were May 4,2009…Opening Prices are as on the date of Reco
It do not include Sesa Goa,which has been our front runner for a long time now.It currently trades at Rs 230+ ,up near 300 % from March 2009 Low of Rs 60…Last year we had again recommended it at cum bonus and split price levels of over Rs 3000,translating to ex split and ex bonus price level range of Rs 150 to Rs 165…we reiterated the recommendation several times at every significant decline
It also does not include Firstsource Solutions recommended at Rs 9 and then at Rs 14 in Feb 2009…It now is Rs 22,after seeing a high of Rs 30 recently
It does not include Punj Loyd too as this was pursued vigorously in March 2009 at levels close to Rs 100…It’s doubled since them
IFCI has doubled and IDFC and NIIT have been near doublers
Even the Four Core Scrips,Grasim,BHEL,Larsen & Toubro and Reliance Industries,which have a high Percentage of Portfolio Weightage have performed very well….Of these BHEL,Larsen and Reliance have been re-recommended several times in the past two years…All have been doublers from early March 2009
Only one scrip,Ahmedabad Steelcraft has yet to perform…It had gone upto Rs 20 though a while ago and has seen a high of Rs 27 last year

Don’t ask me why I have recommended these or could you yet enter them at these current levels if they have not reached target prices ! My Clients would kill me if I blog free what they pay me for !..But you could try and read between the lines and research these yourselves ! I did cover some of them in my Workshops

And a word of caution…..You must Invest as per your Profile….Many of the above scrips may not suit your Profile…for instance a Conservative Investor in Equities would concentrate only on the Core Scrips and would never Invest in Aftek or Shree Rama Multi-Tech !,no matter how insignificant the exposure would be !…On the other hand, an Aggressive Investor would seize even an event based opportunity even if it was contingent in nature , and therefore more riskier !

However I can say this…..any Portfolio created or expanded on May 4, 2009, with Scrip Selection and Weightage based on Investor profile, from the above would have registered a strong performance in under three months…in all probability,over 50% as Nine of the above scrips have surged 50% + inside three months….In the same period the Sensex has notched 30% , moving from 11600 levels to current levels of 15100

So a stock selection based portfolio,rather than an Index Fund or Sensex weighted Portfolio would have nearly doubled your returns over those of the Sensex…..The Magic is to demonstrate consisitency in beating the Sensex over longer Periods….Many,like John Bogle of Vanguard believe in Index Investing only,while Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has shown that over 44 years their Portfolio returns are simply mindboggling over those of the S & P 500….Even the CAGR is more than double…S& P is less than 9%,while Berkshire Hathaway is over 20% !…In absolute terms there is absolutely no comparison ! S & P is a shade over 4000 % while BH is over 300000 % over 44 years from 1965 !

So best of Luck in searching for those Stocks that will catapult you into stardom ! Rakesh Jhunjhunwala had the conviction in Crisil and Praj and Titan !…Matrix and Mercator have made Millions for many of My Clients a few years ago…a few even retired in their 30s and 40s,but have since returned to work as their Wives simply cannot tolerate them being at home all day !…Oh ! we do suck Lemon too…in the late 1990s it was the Damania Group that let us down…..In 2006/7 Silverline was one such Lemon..lucky we got out in time…a decision I took after an unconvincing meeting with the Promoter after we had believed in the restructuring story…I’ll leave a few others Lemons for some other Day ! read more

Thanks Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh !….Bengaluru Equity Workshop Concludes Well

4 Comments / ADAG Companies, Chuckle !, Foreign Institutional Investors, Global Economic Crisis, Information Technology, Insider Trading, Investing Themes, Investor Gurus, INVESTOR MISTAKES, Power, Refining & Petrochemicals, Reflections, Satyam : The Sordid Asatyam Saga, Seminars & Workshops, Sensex, STOCKS, Technical Analysis, VALUATION / By Gaurav Parikh

Returned late night from Bengaluru at 1 am in the morning as Flight was delayed after delivering a two day Equity Workshop at the weekend…the eight in a series for a Broking House…It was pouring as we drove to the New Airport,50 + kms away from the City…but we had a Mad Max Driver who drove as if his life,and ours !, depended on it ! weaving at 100 kmph through stranded cars in the fast flooding roads ! and despite incessant rain whipping the windscreen…paid a ridiculous Rs 260 User Fee to access the Airport

Had gone earlier on Thursday,to spend two days at a friend’s 75 acre farm, 20 kms outside Bengaluru,on the fringe of the Bannnerghata Wildlife Park…what a great break !…could hear the silence !…had friend’s three dogs ( Small Datschund and Large Dalmatians!) all over me…Elephants and Monkeys destroy crops and so commercial farming becomes a tedious affair …tried to spot a Gharial in one of his four water harvested ponds on the farm…it had probably slipped in from the forest through the canals….relaxed company , great organic food,fresh vegetables,fresh mangoes,fresh coconut water,fresh jackfruit and fresh rains !…too short a break,though !

Then switched to workshop mode on Saturday Morning….It was truly satisfying…When I threw the House open for any questions on Sunday ,prompt came the first one “When will you come back to Bengaluru for your next workshop !?….Thanks! Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh ! for some great participation

We had some fun discussing Valuations of Reliance Industries,Satyam and Reliance Power and even Jaiprakash Hydro among others companies…and am glad you’ll were genuine in your reactions when we played the Integrity,Insider Trading and Irrational Behaviour Scenarios

Now you know how Mumbai,Vadodora and Rajkot got excited on Reliance Ind Valuations in March and April 2009 at Rs 1100 to Rs 1300 !…maybe I should have come to Bengaluru first !

So all of you know what is the appropriate Valuation Basis to use for Satyam…and how you can make some money on it ,based on an event based risk in June 2009 !

You are now acquainted with the Valuation Risks of Reliance Power at Rs 180 and Jai Prakash Hydro at Rs 70 !

Shanteeth,I hope we do get to 23000 + on the Sensex in 2009 itself, as you aggressively suggested at the outset of the workshop based on Technicals…though I showed you why it looks highly improbable on Fundamentals !…glad you loved the Book I gave you “Screw it ! Just Do it! ” by Richard Branson…now pass it on so someone else enjoys it too ! read more

Super Sunday in Trichy…Treble delight in the Triple Sundae !

6 Comments / Reflections, Seminars & Workshops, STOCKS, VALUATION / By Gaurav Parikh

Sounds like I simply devoured a Great Triple Sundae Dessert out there in Trichy !

Actually it was Trebly memorable Sunday in the Temple City of Trichy in Tamil Nadu due to

An Emotionally Uplifting ‘Darshan’ of Lord Vishnu and ‘Goddess Lakshmi’ at Trichy’s Main Temple at Srirangam
A very well received Two Day Workshop organised by one of India’s leading Broking Groups…Participants had come from Thanjavur,Madurai,Salem and Coimbatore and other places in Tamil Nadu
A Sensational IPL Final and Closing Ceremonies

Actually I just returned to Mumbai from Trichy yesterday after this memorable weekend…Had gone to deliver the above weekend Workshop

It began with our Jet Flight from Mumbai to Chennai on Friday afternoon….On landing in Chennai we were told of the cancellation of the connecting Paramount Airways Chennai-Trichy flight on Friday Night..wasn’t too keen to drive six to seven hours from Chennai to Trichy at night,so transfered to a Chennai – Madurai flight…they served a Tamil Nadu brand of Water called ‘Diet’ ! …Diet Water ! ?….Smaller 72 seater Embareur Aircraft…pretty comfortable and stable too in the air…full dinner service on a 55 minutes flight with proper linen and cutlery and crockery……+ Scratch a Card and Win one of several Gifts !…pay Rs 599 and you can collect these at Special AVA Counters at airports…collected a FOCE Watch at Madurai Airport…..They’re smart…rarely can you win the more expensive gifts like a Blackberry !…and even if you do you have to write to Haryana to get it…What is stocked at the counters are just Watches and Pearl and Leather sets !…..pretty gimmicky really…..stayed overnight at North Gate,Madurai…..actually worked on the Presentations till 3.45 am in the night to update Friday Closing Market Figures….left for Trichy by road at 5.30 am in the morning…reached at 8.15 am and began the weekend workshop at 10 am on Saturday

But it was Sunday that was really great

It began with a Special Darshan at 8.30 am at Trichy’s most famous Temple at Srirangam…The residing Deity is Lord Vishnu lying horizontal on a serpent….It was ‘Amavas’ and the hordes of worshippers had formed a long queue…surely it would take them hours to seek God’s Blessings !…Fortunately the ‘Darshan’ was arranged after we were guided to enter through one of the Nine Gates of the Temple…It was truly an overwhelming experience…However, though ‘Lord Vishnu’ blessed us,we were unable to pray to ‘Goddess Lakshmi’ as temple timings had to be followed…I was disappointed and evinced a desire to return that evening for her ‘darshan’

I began the second day of the Workshop at 10 am .It was very touching that participants were quite effusive in their appreciation….I hope their feedback forms to the Client reflect all of this !…They got out of their shell from Saturday afternoon and began interacting and responding well with me on Sunday…Covered Satyam’s Valuation on a Participant’s Request and covered Reliance Valuation to convey why the markets were so excited that they had raced this scrip from Rs 1100 in early March to twice that now !…Covered Concepts like Beta and It’s Application in Valuation,Hedging and Momentum Trading read more

Enjoying delivering Internal Training Workshops for one of India’s Largest Broking Group

5 Comments / Global Economic Crisis, Investor Gurus, INVESTOR MISTAKES, Reflections, Seminars & Workshops, Sensex, STOCKS, VALUATION / By Gaurav Parikh

Just returned from the Gujarat Leg of Workshops…Being fairly fluent in Gujarati,my mother tongue too, really helped as most of the interaction was in Gujarati……It’s been a gratifying and satisfying and enjoyable experience to have conceived and conducted Internal Training Workhops for one of India’s largest broking group…Completed Five and some more to go in North and South India

The Two day Workhop focuses on Grasping Fundamentals to add Value to Client Relationships and covers Time Value of Money,Valuation,US Economic Crisis,Indian Budget,Market Dynamics,Investment Gurus and their approach,Investor Mistakes,Logical Thinking,Integrity,Insider Trading,Hedging, and the Security Analysis and Portfolio Managment Process…It’s aimed at Relationship Managers,Associates and those that deal directly with Clients..either advising them,executing their deals or simply representing the firm with them

Several Concepts were examined…’Beta’ being an interesting one….How Aggressive players,Valuers and Hedgers use it despite it being debunked by several,including Warren Buffett

It’s really been fun interacting with a wide spectrum of Men and Women,both young and old,who aggregated their emotions and experiences in the workshops to liven the proccedings

Yes,”P” from Mumbai,your ‘Praj’ has worked !…It’s up from Rs 57 to Rs 79….you did say your target was Rs 75 ! and that too within 15 days !….All I advice you is to assess and then take the Risk by distinguishing Momentum and Valuation

And yes “Mrs M ” from Vadodora,I’m glad you conveyed that the one significant takeaway for you from this workshop is that ‘Value’ and ‘Price’ are two seperate issues !

And “Mr B” from Rajkot,you’re brain is surely a whiz one when in comes to Number Crunching…you were computing even faster than I was !

And “Mr U” you said the Sensex will touch 21000 by 2010 !…Now you know,why this looks fundamentally improbable…it would need a favourable play of all three…significant earnings momentum,better PE rating and a quantum jump in Liquidity,especially FII Inflows….Quite Unlikely

Oh ! and thanks “Mr V” for suggesting I drop the “Cheers” Glass from my blog photo and even the Slides Photo….You will notice there is no Glass Now !…Happy !? Now,as you had feared, no one should feel that I’m doing all that I’m doing for a peg of whisky ! read more

Took the Inaugural Sessions at the Five Day Financial Markets Seminar of DTRTI for Income-Tax Commissoners from all over India

Leave a Comment / Reflections, Seminars & Workshops / By Gaurav Parikh

It has been a privilege to have been invited thrice to take the pre lunch inaugural sessions at the three Financial Markets Seminars conducted by the Direct Taxes Regional Training Institute in Mumbai…the First one was in September 2007,followed by one in February 2008 and the latest began yesterday…While the Coordinators keep on changing,the DTRTI continues to be headed by a very graceful and full of poise, Lady Commissioner…. The Invitation and the Thank You Letter that inevitably follows the conclusion of the Seminar comes from her desk

I go back tomorrow to the Seminar for an Open House Q & A Session…already have fielded some searching ones…..like when discussing the Ratio, Market Capitalisation to GDP,a very attentive Commissioner queried that while Market Cap may be the Wealth perceived by the Markets,GDP is Not the Wealth of the Nation…in a sense it’s only the Annual National Income as measured by Gross Domestic Product…Wealth of India is much more…we got into interaction on Money and what three things you can do with it…consume or save or invest…it also threw up India’s High Savings to GDP rate of 35% and the relatively higher Equity Exposure rate of over 7% of Total Savings…With Market Capitulation,expect this Exposure to water down quick

I have ofcourse forewarned them that those who had sought scrips to buy into, in earlier seminars, are no longer on this planet !

I spoke for over Three and a Half Hours on Indian Equity : Dimensions and Dynamics…..covering Global and Indian Market Dynamics,Fate of the US Dollar, FII exposures and trends and short sales (see a day or two old blog on this) ,Insider Trading,Sensex performance in the short and long term and likely Sensex by 2010

I faced some sombre,unlike earlier seminars,and quite smart,alike earlier seminars, Income Tax Commissoners….. perhaps reflecting both the Market Moods and how tough and challenging Direct Tax Collections are likely to be in the near future with the economy slowing down

Our FM has set a Direct Taxes collection target of Rs 1000 crores a day aggregating Rs 356000 crs in FY 09

The Collections in the First Half look good…but it was revealed to me that last year many assesses filed returns and paid taxes in October 2007 …this time around thay have paid taxes under self assessment in September itself…if you remove these then there is no significant rise in tax collections in the first half year on year read more

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