Valuation!Valuation!Valuation!~Lovely Interactive Equity Workshop

Fabulous Participants & Fabulous Interaction at the Equity Workshop
Fabulous Participants & Fabulous Interaction at the Equity Workshop

It was quite an interactive Saturday at the Full House Fundamental Equity Value Vs Price Mumbai MasterClass on Compounding & Capital Protection

We began in earnest at 9.30 am right through to 8 pm~ so much debated from current unnerving market meltdowns & what should be mindsets & strategies in such times that suddenly overcast us in September ~ of Courage & Conviction & Cash ~ what if one is fully Invested ? should one average? should one exit ? why in panic one tends to always sell off the winners to realise whatever profit in hand & let’ losers drag? ….lot’s of questions that were addressed with a confidence culled from such experiences in the past thirty years

They came from all around ~ rookies to veterans ~ small to High Net Worth ~ from Broking Houses,J P Morgan,Accenture,Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank,Cap Gemini,Reliance,Moneycontrol etc

We covered Time Value,Volatility,Valuation & Asset Allocation with Illustrations of over 25 companies with few of them in detailed Valuation over Earnings & Assets & Challenges faced…went through a few Annual Reports & Interim Results & Exchange Notifications & Developments through News in the Media…checked price trends in the short term & even over last ten years to assess Risk & Reward  & Mispricing Opportunities

How the discipline of Valuation & Asset Allocation is your Weapon for Survival & Wealth Protection while growing it & to stay away from Noise & Insider trading & from those who know nothing or even more dangerous from those who don’t know they know nothing !

Valuation ! Valuation ! Valuation ! …how this leg of the equity table actually must be the most solid to hold the table together when the other leg of Liquidity  props up the remaining two legs of Sentiment & Momentum ~ Impact & Quantum of  FPI & DII Flows especially when they slow down or reverse

Put up Friday,September 28,2018 closing prices touchlines of over 200 scrips & even those separately in the Finance,Pharma & Realty Space showing the wealth destruction in them from their 52 week Highs….alarming yes,but is there value re-emerging in many? ~ Showcased a Core Scrips Valuation Grid too

In this continuing market meltdown across the board that has knocked off 50% & more in many that actually hold wealth creation potential & in many that simply were wealth destroyers in the making & should never have been married to ,who can one trust for relevant,reliable & timely information & unbiased & wise interpretation ? ~ Government,Exchanges & Regulatory authorities,Bankers, Auditors,Media,Brokers,Experts,Promoters & Fund Managers of PMS & MFs,Company Promoters & Management ? Who ?

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Fundamental Equity Mumbai MasterClass ~ Sat Sept 29 2018

Hey! here’s a Fundamental Equity Mumbai MasterClass you should attend on Saturday,September 29,2018

Register here => http://www.jsalphaa.com/register.php

It’s a back to back month Workshop as many could not be accommodated in the August 2018 Workshop.This is a MasterClass that focuses on Compounding & Capital Protection & involves diving deeper into data & interpretation & deliberations  

Fundamental Equity MasterClass in Mumbai
Stock Selection ~ Value Vs Price

Indian Equity ~ Compounding & Capital Protection ~ The Magic & Miracle in this Market Matrix

Saturday, September 29, 2018

There’s a lot that we shall cover on the day foremost of which is :

We’ll take a Listed Company ,which you can suggest too when you register, & :

~ We’ll check out the Promoter & Management Pedigree & their skin in the company & assess any Corporate Governance Issues

~ We’ll discuss & debate the Business Model ~ Dynamics of Demand & Supply,Scale of Opportunity,Resources,Pricing Power & Competition among others to gauge if  intention is backed by ability to execute & perform

~ We’ll rip through the Annual Report & latest Financial Performance understanding how to read & interpret these…what they state …or do not state ! .We’ll work our way through Exchange Notifications & News & Views in the Print & Social Media & on Stock Portals & TV Channels

~ We’ll work out the Valuation of the Company on several relative & absolute,traditional & contemporary basis

~ We’ll then make an assessment of Value Vs Share Price to gauge how much of it is already factored into the Price…the less it has ,the more the opportunity beckons  

With confidence & conviction you will not only be able to read & interpret Auditors Report,Profit & Loss Statement,Balance Sheet,Cash Flow Statement & Notes to Accounts  but will be equipped to assess their impact & bearing,along with other objective & subjective factors, on Valuation & further on the Share Price

This is a MasterClass…so we shall be going real deep in debate & discussion & deliberations after some deep reading & interpretation & deep valuation computations to decide with deep conviction if there indeed exists a deep compounding opportunity & what could be the downside risk in context of Capital Protection

The Investing process dialogue will cover Themes,Approaches,Strategies,Concepts,Gurus,Mistakes

You shall be able to read any Research Report with a detached mind thus not blindly accepting all that is stated or concluded in it.In fact you shall be able to create a decisive Research Report yourself

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Coffee with CEO Meet with IES MBA Students

IES MBA Meeting 1 IES MBA Meeting 2

Hosted MBA Finance Students from the IES Management Institute,Mumbai in their ‘Coffee with CEO ‘ Initiative & courtesy Purv Shah,a younger & equally if not more passionate trainer in Capital Markets

It also happened to be Children’s Day yesterday….always keep the child within alive

It was a pre lunch session for an hour or two…covered… Insider Trading & Integrity…Chasing Passion & not Paisa…seeking good mentorship & being with fun people,to learn from the best like a sportsperson…to evolve

…Oh ! & of course how to spot pedigree companies & people …mentioned a few of them to highlight Controversies & Corporate Misgovernance &  when to give a second chance too!…to read & read & read & then again read some more

…spoke of Richard Branson & his book ‘Screw It ,Just Do it’ that changed my opinion of him to one of respect…how both of us have one thing in common in that he has cheated death several times on his adventure trips while I have too but not out of choice in health issues,Sahara sandstorm,BSE Bomb Blast & a car accident

….to trust to grow,to see the best in people,to B+ which also is my blood group which they knew having read me up before coming across….to be decisive & responsible…be curious to expand knowledge…be vibrant…attract people to you,who love being around you….share,not be arrogant,let the E-go

Reiterated Theory without Application & Academics without Action is pointless….Eugene Fama & his Efficient Market Hypothesis & whether India & Insider Trading are truly Inseparable despite SEBI’s strengthening regulations

At the start itself posed a question to them ” What did you notice is or is not there in my office?”…a few answers came forth like “No Noise” or “Less Staff” or “Open Glass Cabins”…Yeah all of these but what I was seeking was ” No TV with Stock & News Channels blaring away” & it did come from one eager young gentleman who was promptly rewarded with a gift

Enjoyed interacting with them & I hope these fine young ladies & gentlemen took away at least one good thing from the meet

 

 

Thanks Bengaluru~Intense & Interactive Participants at the Workshop

A Lovely Saturday invested in… Thanks Bengaluru~Focused Group of Intense & Interactive Participants at Saturday’s Fundamental Stock Selection -Value vs Price Workshop

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Warm Feedback from all & yes next time will endeavour to make it over two days

Great Spread…of participants from Delhi,Dubai,Kerala & Chennai & Bengaluru….& of  Lunch too ! 🙂

There were so many companies queried…time being the essence,could answer only a few,like is Welspun Ind worth now after being decimated to half as US ‘Target’ pulled out supplies….if you apply some of the valuation & price dynamics covered  as well as on the flash drive given to you,you would get some conviction in your views…will surely guide you on them

Paddy from Chennai ~ you are a very seasoned & knowledgeable  Investor & thanks for the really warm email…you must fly down to Mumbai too when I hold one there…there’s a lot to learn from you too…for your constant interaction the participants voted you the best ….fully deserving of the award…hope you liked it

Chitra from HCL ~ your eagerness & searching questions were a delight ~ & yes you should be able to retire when young if…..& yes you can keep bombarding me with emails 🙂

Murtaza & Kanwar from Dubai ~ will surely implement the positive feedback

Bina & Vishal from Delhi ~ You guys rocked….if you make some money from the approach we covered & what Mistakes not to make do let me know & I’ll send you an email with where to send my Fees !…if you don’t, then understand the email was wrong ! 🙂

Deepak from Kotak Securities,Bengaluru ~ your appreciation & the selfie you took with me is quite valuable…for me

Pratheesh from Kerala ~ Your enthusiasm was contagious & your Guru is surely a wise man for guiding you to think 20 years when committing investments !…Wow! that’s a good long period…but I hope to see you before 2036 !

Vinod the avid Bengaluru Golfer ~ Go have a good Swing on the Greens with what we covered ~ assure you you’ll finally putt a birdie if not an eagle ! ~ never a bogey ! but perhaps a Hole in One ! :-)…& yes the next time I’ll take you up on the offer of having Bengaluru’s best ‘Paan’ after Lunch or Dinner !

Manprit & Tushar ~ you guys were realtively quiet but I’m assuming it’s because you were absorbing it all 🙂

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Book Review for Outlook Business :100 Baggers~by Christopher Mayer

Hey ! my book review of Christopher Mayer’s ” 100 Baggers : Stocks that return 100-1 & how to find them “  now features online on Outlook Business....just also happily observed that  Stock Select for 2016  published in December 2015 is trending  online as the No 1 most popular read on Outlook Business this year !….surely because  Stock Select for 2015 ,Shemaroo @ Rs  159 given in December 2014 has rocketed over 100% inside a year & a half to current Rs 325+ levels …quite aware that if this year’s Select does not Click in the years ahead that ‘100 baggers’ will be read without the 1 !    🙂 

For want of Magazine Space the book review in print is a much truncated & edited version

For Full Flavour do check out my full review produced verbatim below :

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Book Review by Gaurav A Parikh,MD of Jeena Scriptech Alpha Advisors Pvt Ltd

Book  : 100 Baggers ~ Stocks that return 100-to-1 & how to find them

Author : Christopher W Mayer

Publisher : Laissez Faire Books

Published in : 2015

“ You make more money by sitting on your ass”

The author Chris Mayer could not have been more blunt in quoting Fund Manager, Martin Whitman

You need to Buy Right and Sit Tight for Years & Years & Years for that 100 Bagger .How do you Buy Right!? That’s the 100 Bagger Question Chris attempts to answer

 My own experience of 100 Baggers leads me to pat Chris on the back.To give you some sense  my three 100 Baggers Wipro,Mercator & Matrix Labs(now delisted as sold to Mylan) on which I had reinforced my credibility and standing had returned  respectively 38700% inside three years,12000% inside 5 years and 10000 % inside 4.5 years.But sadly not all took the full ride!.It’s like I confess at Training Workshops is akin to Boarding  a Train from Mumbai Central to Ahmedabad  but getting off at Borivali!

Make no mistake! This book by Chris Mayer is not  for those who seek  Instant 100-to -1 multi-bagger Success by investing in Stocks.Such 100-to-1 odds are available real time at Wealth Destroying Casinos round the world!

Chris dedicates his Book to Thomas W Phelps,the first author of  the first book on 100-Baggers

His inspiration to pen this book trails back a few years to  a Conference in 2011 where the great Investor ,Chuck Akre  made mention in his address of having read in 1972 the  Barron’s Reviewed  Book ‘100 to 1 in the Stock Market’  by Thomas Phelps which focused on compounding capital.Legendary Investor Peter Lynch talked of ten baggers but here was Thomas Phelps talking of 100 baggers !

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Equity Meltdown~Pulling out or Putting In!?

Equity Meltdown~Pulling out or Putting In!?

Answer this to define yourself ~ your Investment Mindset now &  your Risk Profile in general  ?

The Question should be surely in your Mind right Now as continuing Global Meltdown forces India Meltdown too with the Nifty & Sensex sinking over 3.3% today to go sub 7000 & 23000 respectively ~ down 23% in 11 months from the highs of  9119 & 30025  in the first week of  March 4,2015

Had warned you’ll in December 2014 that 2015 will be Volatile & Vulnerable and reiterated it several times in 2015….stated that 2016 looks more ominous

Worth reproducing this blogpost of mine of September 4,2015

Hoping for A Merciless Market for Higher Gains at Lower Risk !

Friday, September 4th, 2015

At the time it was of concern that the Sensex had gone sub 25500 but I yet had declared it was not a Merciless Market yet!….that’s when you can get into serious wealth creation opportunities at lower risk for higher gain !

Here’s an extract from what we had communicated  privately in early September 2015

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Hi,

We have been quiet for a few months now for a good reason. Those who are on our fundamental wavelength know what we stand for. .Too frequent communications then would have served little purpose other than the danger of generating ‘Noise’… !

What we did assess with conviction was that FPI Inflows will ebb or even reverse in 2015 from the record inflows in 2014…another reason that should mute markets…as this was played out it was ignored by a frenzied midcap space market that justified it being balanced out by increased retail participation and absorption by increased Mutual Funds Investments 

On ET Now Prime time on March 31,2015 I had aired my fundamental views for the new FY 16 that was dawning to a wider audience than just clients.I had stated that the markets were running ahead of fundamentals

Yet the Smallcaps & Midcaps had raced away in a frenzied climb last six months too & we were being questioned  why we were being relatively more conservative with dependence on Core Scrips weightage as per Risk Profiling and Asset Allocation as a discipline and  refusing to trade in and out of markets furiously especially in scrips that were touted on the street or in stock chats or in networks or on the air by experts on popular stock channels and stock portals….most were justifying the run up and urging and seducing for more participation to those especially  who thought were missing the boat…The Young were inheriting Earth !   

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