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Who Goofed up on the ex Bonus Pricing ! ? BSE or Westlife Developments ? ~ at Rs 153.90 it has got everyone excited as the Jatia Family will play out the McDonalds India Story through it ~ Nobody is asking searching questions !?

Check out a detailed write up that we have just put as Scrip Standpoint on my company website  

Who Goofed up on the ex Bonus Pricing ! ? BSE or Westlife Developments ? ~ at Rs 153.90 it has got everyone excited as the Jatia Family will play out the McDonalds India Story through it

Nobody though  is asking searching questions !?

It is traded on only BSE in the T Group .This allows only 2% daily movement either side to hit circuits ! ~It was Rs 86 ex bonus on December 7,2012 and then it becomes Rs 153.90 ex bonus yesterday ! within a few days !

Who goofed up BSE or the Company !

Company announced a 1:1 Bonus and declared record date as December 11,2012 subsequently changing it to a Book Closure Date

In first week December communications to BSE it never revealed that  the Bonus was only for the Non Promoters Shareholders  apparently to bring down the Jatia Group holding from 85% + to 75% as is required by  a listed company ~ and believe me it’s no sacrifice ! ~ so the ex bonus price was adjusted to Rs 86 on 7/12/2012 ~ Company then issues this clarification and so the Price returns to Rs 150+ ex bonus,the same as it was cum bonus !

An Economic Times Coverage gave it a huge thumbs up today ~ without checking out some tricky questions like what will be the final Equity of this Company when it consolidates and makes Hardcastle Restaurants a direct Subsidiary

Hardcastle Restaurants is the Jatia Group Celebrity being the McDonald Franchisee for West and South India

Will Westlife Development move up from Rs 150+ ? Of Course it will….but searching questions throw up Corporate Governance,Lack of Transperancy,Miscommunication and Non Disclosure Issues

 

We are Missing the Wood for the Trees ! ~WalMart say it spend US $ 25 Million lobbying for Overseas Investments including FDI Retail in India ~ is the figure much more !?

We are Missing the Wood for the Trees !

WalMart spends US $ 25 Million lobbying for Overseas Investments including FDI Retail in India

India now debates whether this was how WalMart bribed it’s way into India for multi brand FDI Retail  !

I say we are missing the Woods for the Trees ! ~ They must have spend much more  and since 2010 ! ~ I go a step further in suspecting that they were allowed to ! by routing in the US $ 100 million in 2010 the way it was ! Read below

Just a few days ago I posted a blog on how WalMart has already routed US $ 100 million into India through an investment in a Bharti Group Consultancy and how that money was lend to the Retail Arm of Bharti Group !

In 2010 WalMart invested US $ 100 m in a Bharti Group Retail Holding Company ~ jumping the gun for that First Mover Advantage when FDI in Multi Brand Retail is allowed ?

Wednesday, December 5th, 2012

It’s quite probable that some of this 2010 Investment too must have expended for ‘lobbying’ in India ~ and so the Lobbying expenditure is clearly much more than US $ 25 Million ~ For a Country that is yet unravelling thousands of Crores in Corruption scams in Deals where the Government is involved,do you really think we would have been satisfied with just US $ 25 Million to open out 1.2 Billion People and our Country to Billions of  US $s of Investments and Sales and Profits in the coming years !

Our Congress led UPA Government must decide on whose side are they when they defend WalMart  and FDI in Multi Brand Retail like this even when WalMart has conceded they have monetarily ‘lobbied’ ! ~ Are they on India’s side !? ~ when one hears them defending aggressively and voiceferously like this it easily gives rise to thoughts where one suspects who the Indian beneficiaries of the WalMart largesse have been or will be !     

Of course it’s quite another raging debate whether opening out India for FDI in Multi Brand Retail will actually benefit our Country !

Amusingly and Angrily and Frustratingly the hypocricy,the farce and the double standards showed up in the recent Parliament Vote on the matter when  despite attacking FDI in Multi Brand Retail, BSP voted for it with their leader making it a communal issue saying she would not let the opposition BJP win at any cost !and SP conveniently took a walk  and did not vote ! ~ this pre planned drama resulted in Congress led UPA winning the vote in both houses

And even more Amusingly even those who voted for UPA are demanding an investigation into the WalMart Lobbying !

As I said in earlier blogs we are an Extraordinary Country being run by Ordinary People

No wonder Ratan Tata,the Tata Group Chairman who retires later this month to pave the way for a young Cyrus Mistry has apparently voiced yet again his frustration a few days ago terming India  as a nation having a ‘venal business environment ‘!~ he has just denied he ever used such phrases in the interview with Financial Times but clearly the truth has been told read more

In 2010 WalMart invested US $ 100 m in a Bharti Group Retail Holding Company ~ jumping the gun for that First Mover Advantage when FDI in Multi Brand Retail is allowed ?

In 2010 WalMart invested US $ 100 m in a Bharti Group Retail Holding Company ~ jumping the gun for that First Mover Advantage when FDI in Multi Brand Retail is allowed ? Investigation is on 

FDI in Multi Brand Retail is being hotly debated and voted on in parliament today

Clearly on a substance over form argument WalMart has done the wrong thing by jumping the gun and making such an Investment before it is even allowed

What was allowed was 100% FDI in Consultancy Services ~ Thus Bharti Retail Holdings Ltd ,which operates supermarkets through a subsidiary Bharti Retail Ltd, changed it’s name to Cedar Support Services in January 2010 after it must have amended it’s articles in December 2009 to show they were mainly involved in Consultancy Service ! ~ this was to enable WalMart to make an Investment of US $ 100 m in 2010 ! ~ A lot of this Money was then lend to Bharti Retail Ltd  which ran retail stores! The Investment is through compulsorily convertible debentures to be converted after 18 months ( extended twice now to  a latest September 2013 conversion) to give a WalMart a 49% Equity Stake !

How could WalMart even say it’s a Debt or a Loan that has to be returned ! ~ It’s clearly meant to be Equity !  ~ even if there is a ‘put’ clause in the contract !

So What’s Wrong with this !? one may ask ! ~ This is my take ~ Well,in 2010 FDI in Multi Brand Retail was not allowed ~ the gamble was it would be allowed in sooner or later and WalMart needed a head start so they could quickly commence operations from literally Day 1 after it would be allowed ! ~ and Capital Resources were needed to expand the retail Infrastructure in India~  so in March 2010,through their Mauritius Company, they gave US $ 100 m ( interestingly this now happens to be the minimum Investment that must be made for FDI Multi Brand Retail Investment when allowed ! ) to their Wholesale Cash & Carry Partners from 2007 ,the Bharti Group through the mode of compulsorily convertible debentures  ~ The Monies were given to Cedar Support Services (earlier Bharti Retail Holdings) which had no employees and no profits ~ In turn Cedar lend  a major part of these monies to Bharti Retail Ltd that runs retail stores

So WalMart’s Monies were Clearly being used as resources for  Multi Brand Retail in India  ~ The Legal Form and Argument may yet give them some defence ~ but substance over form they have clearly violated the spirit ~ I daresay this was allowed to happen too ,before it should be allowed to happen !        read more

Ask yourself this ~ Did it really matter to me here in India who won the USA Presidency ? ~ am I better or worse off!?

Ask yourself this ~ Did it really matter to me here in India who won the USA Presidency ? ~ am I better or worse off !? ~does it affect my health,my family,my job or business,my wealth….my stocks ! ? ~ am I really going to advice to get out of Indian IT Space !?

On US Foreign Political or Economic Policy Issues,neither Obama nor Mitt Romney would dare to effect any changes that will affect US Interests

Happy for Obama that he won as incumbent…..and his anti India IT outsourcing stance ,am told by Indian IT Insiders is only a local  appeasement tactic to protect American Jobs,as they really have little choice in the matter as of date ~ call it Catch 22 ~ they want to protect American Jobs but in a leveraged economy and a recessionary environment the economics simply don’t work out  not to outsource ~ having said this the cap on H-1B Visa for highly skilled foreign workers has been dropped by USA from 195000 in 2001 to just 85000 this year ~ Indian IT Companies get round this hurdle by rationalising the team numbers on a project,local US Hiring and doing more work on the Project out of India…of course they have been accused of other ways too !

David Bier,an US immigration policy analyst,wrote in Forbes earlier this Year that Foreign Highly Skilled workers on H -1B Visas create jobs not take them ~ in support,he quoted a 2009 finding by the National Foundation for  American Policy that for every H-1B Visa request it co-related with five new jobs at major firms and more than seven new jobs at firms with less than 5000 employees   !

Though  Indian IT may not be a great Investment Theme that it was in the 1990s and earlier part of the 21st Century when all IT majors,except for  Satyam, were simply great multi bagger pickings !, the IT Story is far from ebbing and I’m not going to advice Clients to move out of this space totally ~or even switch from TCS to Infosys like CLSA thinks should be done !

Make no Mistake,Obama will continue to bully India on both fronts and,I daresay, we shall continue to acquiesce quickly without serious debate justifying US entry on grounds of aiding GDP Growth and creating millions of jobs  and upgrading our Infrastructure with latest technology !  ~ We need to be cautious that while USA promotes their Interests aggressively,they will as they need to survive and recover from a faltering and highly leveraged economy,we need to safeguard our interests ~ I genuinely fear this is not happening  ~ we are opening out more US exposure in Insurance,Retail,Defence,Aviation,Agriculture,Banking,Higher Education,Automobiles and allied sectors without the rigors of  an intelligent debate without premediated bias or prejudice on the long term implications of this read more

Heritage Food is flying high at Rs 360+ surging over 130% in 100 days since Director’s wife picked up 50000 shares at @ Rs 155 !

Heritage Food is flying high at Rs 360+ surging over 130% in 100 days since Director’s wife picked up 50000 shares at @ Rs 155 !

Closed at Rs 357 today after a high of Rs 367

The Company was set up by the ex Andhra Pradesh CM,Chandrababu Naidu and is headed  by his wife, N Bhuvaneshwari ~ They hold @ 46% of the Equity  ~ Above Director’s wife shares too are included in the Promoter Group

Heritage Foods was quoted @ Rs 150 in the beginning of July 2012 ~ There was some relatively heavy volume on July 4 and July 11 ~ Company informed the BSE in a communication dated July 5,2012 but updated on BSE website on July 12,2012  that Nara Brahmani,wife of Executive Director Nara Lokesh had purchased 50000 shares in the Open Market through Zen Securities at Rs 77.50 lakhs or Rs 155 per share on July 4,2012  ~ She held just 500 shares prior to this !

http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/Heritage_Foods_(India)_Ltd_200712_SAST.pdf

Check out the first Fortnight July 2012 volumes on BSE for Heritage ~ normal trading was in a few thousands except for the two days stated above

Date Open Price High Price Low Price Close Price WAP No.of Shares No. of Trades Total Turnover (Rs.)

02-Jul-12

141.5

149

141.5

146.2

145.5776

2701

40

393205

03-Jul-12

149

152

149

152

151.218

1156

14

174808

04-Jul-12

159.7

159.7

148.05

154.95

154.6915

60812

163

9407102

05-Jul-12

159.7

174.95

159.7

171.9

168.9391

13345

178

2254492

06-Jul-12

177.8

177.8

163

165.6

170.2651

10006

92

1703673

09-Jul-12

164.95

164.95

153.35

156.35

157.5627

1994

49

314180

10-Jul-12

155

158.3

153

156

156.9005

1035

42

162392

11-Jul-12

155

169

155

158.25

163.1434

56483

835

9214826

12-Jul-12

158

159

154.1

156

156.5048

1042

22

163078

13-Jul-12

156.05

157

153.3

155.4

156.1259

3741

37

584067

16-Jul-12

157.2

157.2

155

155

156.7703

209

7

32765

Well Done Guys ! You’ve gained a cool 130% or over Rs 1,00,00,000 or Rs One Crore in gains INSIDE  just 100 days !

Valuation wise the FY 12 EPS was @ Rs 8 with PAT at RS 9.19 crs on an Equity (FV Rs 10) of Rs 11.53 crs ~ Book Value is Rs 80 with Networth just above Rs 92 crs ~ Q 1 FY 13 has shown superlative strong results and the mood is upbeat with a strong surge in PAT expected this year ~ PAT for the the three months ending June 30,2012 was Rs 8.44 crs ~ it thus earned in three months nearly as much as it had in the whole of last year !  However with Closing Price at Rs 357 today ,and considering FY 12 Earnings and Assets,relative valuation give a P/E of 45 and P/BV of 4.5 ~ That’s High ! and clearly a record FY 13 Year is being reflected in the surging share price  ~ EPS should comfortably double past Rs 16 and even move above Rs 20 ~ that adjusts the Forward P/E to below 20….The current Market Cap is just Rs 411 crs or @ US $ 75 Million for a Company whose Sales should cross Rs 1500 crs this year through a strong marketing and distribution Chain that cannot be replicated overnight ~ and what’s US $ 75 million for a FMCG MNC to buy out 100% of a leading Indian Listed Dairy Company that has a major market share in South India through over 1000 Franchisee and Own Retail Outlets and Parlors     

So what’s happening ! ~ Heritage Foods has been wooed by several FMCG Multinationals in the past ~ like the likes of HUL & Nestle ! ~ It’s Dairy Division is the Main Driver while the Retail Division is recovering from the nascent loss read more

The Aroma of Starbucks Coffee is wafting already ! though India’s first outlet opens tomorrow !

😀 The Aroma of Starbucks Coffee is wafting already ! ~ smelt it as I walked  into my office this morning !

The first outlet opens in my Office Building~ Elphinstone Building at Horniman Circle,Fort,South Mumbai  tomorrow and heavy preparations are on ~ looks like a huge opening blitz ~ trust the Americans for this ~the street is swarming with them with Coats and Blazers despite the October heat~ and a whole lot of heavy swivelling spotlights have been mounted on two special frames bordering St Thomas Cathedral boundary Wall and focussed on our Building ~ Pay & Parking Area has been vacated and cordoned off to make space for a huge makeshift stage and some seating area ~I guess for some performances and speeches at the launch  ~ A huge White drape hangs vertically on the building where I’m assuming they’re planning to beam Starbucks ads etc ~ The Building corridor on the Street has been cordoned off too and the Starbucks Outlet has been concealed by black drapes in the Corridor so nobody gets a peek in before it actually is thrown open ! ~ yet the Coffee has already began to brew and the strong and intoxicating, and I must say can easily induce addiction,aroma is already wafting the Street outside !

So become a Web Client and I’ll buy you a Starbucks Coffee ! ~ become a personal client and I buy you more than one ! as we would interact often ~Come on ! others are offering worse to seduce you ! ~ 🙄 like 50% off on their Advisory Fees or even guaranteed returns !

Of course ! you can buy your own Starbucks Coffee ! ~ but look at it this way ! ~ with me,in due course, you should be able to do so comfortably and as often as you would like without holding back and without even a twinge of guilt ! ~ maybe you’d buy me one too !

It’s of course quite another thought whether one should indulge in Starbucks Coffee at all ! ~  it’s an addictive Consumer Discretionary Spending ! Starbucks costs Star Bucks ! ~ an average of over US $ 2 without the frills and toppings ~ let’s see what their opening pricing is in India

….and Tata Global Beverages is holding strong at Rs 163 just now ! ~ that’s probably a bit more than the Opening Price of a Starbucks Coffee in India !

Cheers 🙂  !

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