Stanley Druckenmiller warns of an Endgame in Equities ~ He’s into Gold

Stanley Druckenmiller

Stanley Druckenmiller warns of an Endgame in Equities ~ He’s into Gold 

He makes out quite a compelling case for an endgame in Equities with this address earlier this month at the celebrated Annual Sohn Investor Conference of Hedge Fund Managers

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-07/stan-druckenmiller-endgame-his-full-apocalyptic-presentation

He’s a self made Billionaire famous largely for the US $ One Billion Gains made in quick time in 1992 when he was with George Soros & they shorted the Pound

His own Fund Duquesne gave reportedly average returns of 30% from 1986 to 2010 when he converted it into a Family Office as he feared he could not continue giving good returns

He’s greatly nervous about the financial leveraging that continues in US & China &  has been critical of the US Fed & it’s Governors for over a decade now

The Fed has borrowed more from future consumption than ever before…..While policymakers have no end game, markets do.”

He supports his nervousness with compelling statistics

  • The  US Total  Credit Market Debt  as a % of GDP is 350%
  • The Net Debt vs Operating Cash Flow shows a current 5 year divergence like never before post World War II
  • The above Indicating that Corporate Debt was not used productively for R & D & Capex but rather for BuyBacks & M & A

He is nervous about China & Japan both

Worth Noting his Views

Aswath Damodaran~Margin of Safety is an excuse for Inaction in risky times!

Chanced upon this latest from the well known Prof Aswath Damodaran who teaches Corporate Finance & Equity Valuation at the Stern School of Business in New York

Makes interesting reading as he expresses quite vividly the doubt our minds are occupied ,rather tortured with, when engaging in Valuation exercises in uncertain & risky times as now and how we deal with these

Here’s a Sampling of his mind in verbatim:

~”When stumped for answers, we almost invariably turn to others that we view as more knowledgeable or better equipped than we are to come up with solutions. Cynically, you could argue that this allows us to avoid taking responsibility for investment mistakes, which we can now attribute to consultants, text book writers or that person you heard on CNBC”

~”investors and analysts like to use rules of thumb, often with no basis in fact or reality, when making judgments”

~”the more uncertain you feel about individual investments, the more you have to spread your bets. It is not an admission of weakness, but a recognition of reality”

~”I am afraid that the margin of safety, at least as practiced by some in the investing community, has become an empty vessel, an excuse for inaction rather than a guide to action in risky times”

~ “being comfortable with uncertainty may very well be the edge that separates success from failure in investing”

😆 And you got to pat him for this :

~ ” I am wrong a hefty percent of the time, but so what? It’s only money! I am just glad that I am not a brain surgeon!”

John Wayne ~You have got to be a man first before you can be a gentleman

John Wayne  in ‘McLintock’ ~“You’ve got to be a man first before you can be a gentleman”

Whoa! Resonates strong with me !

Here’s Dan Steele’s take on it …an interesting extract below

“Gentlemanliness presupposes manliness. It’s a softening, a harnessing of the core characteristics of masculinity: strength, courage, mastery, and honor. A gentleman, as scholar Harvey Mansfield put it, is a manly man with polish.

The respect given a gentleman is thus premised on constraint.”

Interesting Origin of a Few English Phrases & Customs

“Piss Poor”

They used to use urine to tan animal skins, so families used to all pee in a pot & then once a day it was taken & Sold to the tannery…….if you had to do this to survive you were “Piss Poor”

But worse than that were the really poor folk who couldn’t even afford to buy a pot……they “didn’t have a pot to piss in” & were the lowest of the low

The next time you are washing your hands and complain because the water temperature isn’t just how you like it, think about how things used to be. Here are some facts about the 1500s:

Tradition of Bride carrying a Bouquet when getting Married 

Most people got married in June because they took their yearly bath in May, and they still smelled pretty good by June.. However, since they were starting to smell . …… . Brides carried a bouquet of flowers to hide the body odor. Hence the custom today of carrying a bouquet when getting Married.

“Don’t throw the baby out with the Bath water!”

Baths consisted of a big tub filled with hot water. The man of the house had the privilege of the nice clean water, then all the other sons and men, then the women and finally the children. Last of all the babies. By then the water was so dirty you could actually lose someone in it.. Hence the saying, “Don’t throw the baby out with the Bath water!”

“It’s raining cats and dogs.”

Houses had thatched roofs-thick straw-piled high, with no wood underneath. It was the only place for animals to get warm, so all the cats and other small animals (mice, bugs) lived in the roof. When it rained it became slippery and sometimes the animals would slip and fall off the roof… Hence the saying “It’s raining cats and dogs.”

What led to Canopy Beds 

There was nothing to stop things from falling into the house. This posed a real problem in the bedroom where bugs and other droppings could mess up your nice clean bed. Hence, a bed with big posts and a sheet hung over the top afforded some protection. That’s how canopy beds came into existence.

Why House has a thresh hold 

The floor was dirt. Only the wealthy had something other than dirt. Hence the saying, “Dirt poor.” The wealthy had slate floors that would get slippery in the winter when wet, so they spread thresh (straw) on floor to help keep their footing. As the winter wore on, they added more thresh until, when you opened the door, it would all start slipping outside. A piece of wood was placed in the entrance-way. Hence: a thresh hold.

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It is fatal to work 20 hours at a stretch day in and out even if young!

Is it worth working 20 hours at a stretch day in and out even if young!?

Was sad to read about the death of one as young as 22 and upwardly mobile Indian youth working as an analyst with Goldman Sachs in San Francisco

How Wall Street killed a 22-year-old Indian at Goldman Sachs

The reason for his death is yet to be out but this young man was fed up of burning the midnight oil day in and out and had actually resigned only to rejoin….a sad and bad decision that probably resulted in his death….he was stressed out totally

One should not be working like this for hours on end with sleep deprivation taking a toll…I have observed that in the past two decades many young have been falling a victim to stress and some of them fatally too losing their life to cardiac arrest

Reminded me of  the Motivational Author Robin Sharma and his bestseller ” The Monk who sold the Ferrari”….a hot shot lawyer who gave it all up

Working 15 to 20 hours a day in this afflicted modern age is vastly more fatal than having done so in the 1970’s and 1980’s

I put in long hours and even slept a few nights in office in KPMG in the Middle East in the 1980’s to complete work which had tight deadlines…..I was in my 20’s then.It seems like a different era then .

A 20+ year old  working round the clock today has his Life clock ticking faster !

Work Hard ! Play Hard ! ?

It’s not worth it

Do pay heed to this 30 second guidance from  the ex CEO  of Coca Cola,Bryan Dyson which I have carried as a page post on my blog for years

 

True Sensex Blood Advice for Indian Equities !

Here’s some True Sensex Blood Advice for Indian Equities !

“Stop worrying about what can go wrong, and get excited about what can go right”

No Point cribbing Retail Investors did  not participate in the Rally now and then !

Who or What stopped them ! ~ Surely Bad Experiences & Overcaution !

But then those who live in the past are condemned to repeat it and limit their future !

Here are a Few Inspirational Quotes that convey that Past has Past !…most are direct,some subtle and some cynical…..applies to Life but can apply to the Fear to Tread Indian Equities too

“Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.” Søren Kierkegaard

“You realize that our mistrust of the future makes it hard to give up the past.” ~ Chuck Palahniuk, Survivor “Yesterday is gone. Tomorrow has not yet come. We have only today. Let us begin.” ~ Mother Teresa “The past is always tense, the future perfect.” ~ Zadie Smith Unfortunately, the clock is ticking, the hours are going by. The past increases, the future recedes. Possibilities decreasing, regrets mounting.” ~ Haruki Murakami, Dance Dance Dance “I have learned that if you must leave a place that you have lived in and loved and where all your yesteryears are buried deep, leave it any way except a slow way, leave it the fastest way you can. Never turn back and never believe that an hour you remember is a better hour because it is dead. Passed years seem safe ones, vanquished ones, while the future lives in a cloud, formidable from a distance.” Beryl MarkhamWest with the Night “We are products of our past, but we don’t have to be prisoners of it.” ~Rick Warren, The Purpose Driven Life: What on Earth Am I Here for? “You spend your whole life stuck in the labyrinth, thinking about how you’ll escape one day, and how awesome it will be, and imagining that future keeps you going, but you never do it. You just use the future to escape the present.” ~ John Green, Looking for Alaska “Sooner or later we’ve all got to let go of our past.” ~ Dan Brown, Deception Point “The past is never dead. It’s not even past.” ~ William Faulkner, Requiem for a Nun “Study the past if you would define the future.” ~ Confucius “The past can’t hurt you anymore, not unless you let it.” ~ Alan Moore, V for Vendetta “My past is everything I failed to be.” ~ Fernando Pessoa, The Book of Disquiet “People are all over the world telling their one dramatic story and how their life has turned into getting over this one event. Now their lives are more about the past than their future.” ~ Chuck Palahniuk, Invisible Monsters

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