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A Lion’s eye on the Bulls and Bears

“In India, companies may fall sick, but promoters rarely do!”

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January 2011

Equities continue Reeling…seek Counselling as appropriate…Contrarion Opportunity may again be beckoning soon

I repeat what I blogged last evening

…and Oh! the markets are correcting on cue towards a Sensex of 18000…don’t attempt to call the bottom…it may be in your Minds but it’s not in your Hands !….something’s brewing and it’s worrying…getting that strong negative vibe for Feb and March….sub 18000 levels could be on the cards…In November 2010 I had opined a Sensex range of 18000 to 22000 in the first half of 2011….However I fear 18000 will be breached in the short term…Traders and Speculators beware….Investors review your Portfolio selections to assess downside risk…don’t be in any hurry to invest fresh funds or reinvest sales proceeds   

Cash is King….Those who are addicted to Trading and Speculating are strongly advised to switch from Brokers and Stock Channel Counselling to Psychological Counselling first and then to some serious and rational and professional Investment Counselling ! 

Investors are well advised to seek Good Professional Investment Counselling….stop being penny wise and pound foolish !….atleast ,as stated last evening and repeated above,review your Selections to assess the downside…and tune your mindsets to a longer perspective,preferably three years…The Discipline of Asset Allocation first and then Equity Portfolio Construction to match your Risk Profile will now be more easily accepted to adhere to ….You will need to ‘Bear’ this Fall and be wisened that when the ‘Bull’  snorts,everybody ‘Bulls’ around and believe it’s their skills and not just luck or the trend that is making them the Monies….succumbing to irrational exuberance is oh! so easy…but when the tide turns you’ll see, as Warren Buffett asserts, that most are swimming ‘naked’

It’s a pointless exercise inquiring of your Broker on past but fairly recent  2010 recommendations that have gone terribly sour and south…he’s not lost the monies…you have if you had acted on them as you were guided,coaxed and urged to….for example IVRCL Infrastructure…End September 2010 a host of Broking Houses released strong ‘Buy’ reports at Rs 170 with targets of Rs 201 and Rs 238 and beyond …this was probably after being wooed by the Company in Analyst Meets….It became their Darling Stock….Inside four months IVRCL Infra is quoting at 52 Week Lows today of Rs 83 !…that’s an erosion of over 50% !….I wonder how many of these Broking Houses will now issue a follow up Report on IVRCL Infra….and how many of their Clients will trust them and act on any such report !         read more

Thursday…not some stray thoughts !

It’s another Thursday..the last in January 2011…and as Derivatives settle themselves for the routine monthly close,I’m trying to settle a few not so stray thoughts……

…..An Additional Collector is burnt to death by the Kerosene Mafia near Nasik…an Activist seeking Information under RTI on a Builder is beaten up badly by the builder’s goons accompanied by a local Political Party MLA….FIRs are recorded reluctantly after some pressure….Methinks the Government Law Enforcement Machinery is unwilling and unable to protect honest people who do their jobs…..because somewhere or the other they are involved…..not a good sign of the times

…..Final CA Results were announced last week…and they have been quite disastrous….Intermediate Rankers have failed both Final groups…those who thought they had done exceptionally well and were planning parties to celebrate their passing have flunked…..the morale is extremely low and increasing frustration is evident…I know quite a few of those who appeared…..Methinks the ICAI needs to revist and rethink their  approach in controlling and regulating the number of successful candidiates lest they be termed as sadistic !…..the Relative Marking too is causing agony and is not viewed as being fair.….An Intermediate Ranker gets just 8 in IT ! after having self assessed that the Paper went of  very well !…..Frustrated Youngsters,many of them really brilliant,lose self esteem and most  will increasingly shun and switch from CA as a career on Failing ….My advice to Youngsters is to stay off CA if they do not have the ability and willingness to devout to serious stuides for months before appearing for Exams…these are not College Exams…this is a Professional Qualification and is therefore bound to be tough….and do not take it personally if you Fail….it’s not that the ICAI is out to get you…it’s just that the number of successful candidates will always be controlled at low levels…this time it was just under 15% of all those who appeared…that’s 1 in 7 passing…some centres it was 1 in 12….and when I talk to practising CAs they complain of a shortage of professional staff !…so what’s with the Balance !….if the objective is to preserve or up the worth of a CA by limiting the number of successful candidates,it may just end up in CA being seen as a Worthless Option !…Ask the Youngsters      read more

To all Indians everywhere…HAPPY REPUBLIC DAY…Great Parade going on in New Delhi

HAPPY REPUBLIC DAY TO ALL INDIANS ANYWHERE AND EVERYWHERE…Proud to be an Indian

It’s 10.30 am and am enthusiastically viewing an Awe Inspiring and Always Uplifting Republic day Parade going on since morning in New Delhi….really Lovely….Regiments and Brigades of Gorkhas,Sikhs,J & K,Indo Tibetian Forces,Bands on Camels…..Men & Women…all marching brilliantly…..and our Defence Might…. see it Live on DD National …will upload a few mobile snaps soon…Cheers

Added Past Noon

Just added 34 Republic Day photo selections from over 80 clicked from my mobile…..

…..this was the 62nd Republic Day Parade held on Rajpath in our Capital New Delhi…the Chief Guest was the Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and the Salute taken by our President Smt Pratibha Patil 

….the Parade was awesome and always invokes great pride and patriotic fervour as India displays its military might and the vast colourful and cultural diversity….the FlyPast at the End is always eagerly awaited and the three Sukhoi 30 that approached the Saluting base in a  Trishul Formation that then disappered in a blink and wink in vertical flight was stunning

Some Parade Highlights….

State and Ministry Tableaux….

Gujarat….Buddha

Maharashtra….Lavni Dance

Karnataka….Bidi kari work

Kerala….Kathakali and Mohini Attam

Delhi…Bahai Temple

Jammu & Kashmir…Dance & Music to depict Good triumphing over Evil

Ministry of Science & Technology ….displayed the Theme of “From Generic to Genomic”

Ministry of Environment….Showed the Symbiotic relationship between Bio Diversity,Environment and Human Sustenance….we must respect this bio diversity when using Natural Resources

Ministry of Human Resource Development….Right to Education for Every Child…”Padhte Chalo,Badhte Chalo”

Ministry of Railways….celebrating Rabindranath Tagore’s 150 years

Save the Tiger….

Dances from the North East,Prabha Sambalpuri from Orissa,Rangeelo Rajasthan,colourful Bhangra from Punjab performed by the North Zone cultural Centre of Patiala… danced to celberate ploughing,sowing and reaping of crops ,Medley of India’s Classical Dance Forms ‘Sanskriti’ perfomed by the NDMC School Children of New Delhi showcasing Odissi,Bharat Natyam,Manipuri,Kuchipudi,Kathak and Mohini Attam  read more

Have some BHEL-Puri in 2011 at Rs 2218…..Sweet & Spicy

BHEL has been a winner in my clients portfolios for years now…..Spotted it when it was in three figures…then it gave a 1:1 Bonus too in 2007….It was my favourite in the Core Segment

….am getting strong vibes on BHEL yet again…..In 2010 BHEL did a lot right…Profits have zoomed…Orders are at a Record High…Outlook looks good…..the only problem was the Share Price….It’s currently Rs 2218 with a 52 Week High and Low of Rs 2695 and Rs 2060….the price range has not been spectacular….but I think this is about to change…

…..I sense 2011 and 2012 may just be different for BHEL….when it declared it’s third quarter December 31, 2010 results yesterday and for the nine months too in FY 11 with 34 % surge in profits yoy and Rs 158000 crs in orders,this feeling has been fortified and the famous crazy Govinda song came to mind…” Main toh raste peh jaa raha tha…main toh BHEL-puri kha raha tha….”….. Methinks you too should have some BHEL-puri in 2011…It’s going to get Sweeter and Spicier !…with all the fresh condiments and ingredients to make it Complete

Have a look at this uncomplicated table I’ve prepared and judge for yourselves

 

BHEL (FV Rs 10) closed at Rs 2218 on BSE on January 21,2011

 

52 Week High/Low : 2695/2060

Scrip Name

52W v/s LTP

LTP

BHEL

 <-I—–>

2217.50

 

 

Rs Crs

 

9 months December 31,2010

FY 10

Projected FY 11

Projected FY12

Sales

24756

34198

40000

50000

PAT

3213

4311

5500

7000

Equity

490

490

490

490

Reserves

 

15428

19400

24900

Networth

 

15918

19890

25390

Debt

128

EPS Rs

 

88

112

143

Book Value Rs

 

325

406

518

Dividend %

 

233

250

275

P/E Multiple

 

25

20

15.5

P/BV Multiple

 

6.8

5.5

4.3

Market Cap

108551

 

 

 

Capital Employed

17345

12988

 

 

Orders on hand

158000

 

 

 

Public Shareholding %

32.28

32.28

32.28

32.28

Capacity MW

15000 expanding to 20000

 

 

 

 

In 2010 BHEL has remained above Rs 2000 and in the Price Range of Rs 2100-Rs 2600…..more a defensive stock really……but I expect it to move upwards into the range of Rs 2500-Rs 3000 and then even Rs 3000-Rs 3500 next year as it moves towards an EPS level of Rs 150 and beyond for FY 13 

So this is my simple advice….Don’t dare to short BHEL…In fact if it does drop towards Rs 2000 and maybe even below on macro concerns you should be considering buying more of it

But there will be Buyers and Sellers and therefore two conflicting views…..My View is a strong long in BHEL for the coming years….It’s available towards the 52 Week Low as indicated above

So Enjoy some BHEL-Puri in the Core Segment of your Equity Portfolio read more

Outperformance Through Equities from a Trading Perspective…Humorously Addressed an Audience of over 100 last night on this

Outperformance through Equities from a Trading Perspective…..This was the Theme chosen by a leading Broking Group at their 17th Foundation Day Celebrations last night

….and Mr Tulsian and I were invited to address 100+ Invitees on this Theme….Interesting and Intriguing……because it was  specifically from a Trading Perspective rather than just an Investment Perspective…..and that they invited  ‘Fundamental’ Guys like us for this…..I suppose if the Sensex had run away to 25000 they would have invited  ‘Technical’ Guys…only these guys can give you 25 trading calls in a day !….but I sense that they sense too that the Sensex is behaving like ‘Ghajini’…goes off in one direction then pauses as it forgets where it wants to or has to go !….so it was Back to Basics and ‘Fundamentals’ to manage risks 

Mr Tulsian spoke before I did…he appears on Stock Channels quite regularly…’Sweet’ Tulsian….he’s known for his affinity to Sugar scrips….feels the Sensex is not fairly valued…but is undervalued at 19000…and that a 2008 Crash like Situation is unlikely to occur again…this year saw a high of 21000+ in January and then a low of 8000 in October…he loves Larsen & Toubro just like I do….who does not ! ?

…I’m 100% sure that those who are selling Larsen & Toubro heavily,FIIs included, and have caused this correction from Rs 2200 levels in November 2010 to current Rs 1650 levels will re-enter again later this year….They’re selling for creating liquidity based on macro concerns…and they have made good to great gains in Larsen & Toubro….and so when they want funds they will sell all or reduce exposure in what they have made gains……it’s not because they think Larsen & Toubro is overpriced…so if Larsen & Toubro looked good at Rs 2200 it looks even better at lower risk price of Rs 1650…that’s basically my view and take on Larsen & Toubro in this correction   

….basically I was expected to deliver an elixir in 30 minutes for what will happen in 300 Trading Days in 2011!…..For Inspiration I made all begin with a Prayer with mine being this: 

“Dear God,I Pray for a FAT Bank Balance and a THIN Body….Please don’t mix these up like you did last year ! Amen ” 

The address,peppered with humour, was well received but the feedback was that half an hour was too less…. guess the Humour did the trick !…….especially  when I conveyed what SEBI really stands for !…….sensed they wanted more of it !…..covered a host of areas on a screen presentation…Macro domestic and Global concerns,Market Dynamics,FIIs,Momentum & Liquidity & Sentiment,Value v/s Price,Sensex last ten years and since inception and where is it headed this year and the next,Determining the Risk Range for Trading in Sensex Scrips,Timing & Tactical Strategies,USA & PIIGS,Investor Mistakes & Situations,Buy & Hold V/s Trading…Future Capital Holdings and Pantaloon Retail….Warren Buffett & Peter Lynch….Personal Attributes….. read more

Market’s Gyrating Up and Down but Lloyds Steel’s on Fire…crossed Rs 22 today….up 14% …..Enjoy

Blog Regulars and those who acted out on earlier Blogs on Lloyds Steel should be a happy lot…..especially those who picked it up below Rs 10 a year ago…..The Scrips crossed Rs 22 today…up by 14% +…The Volumes too are hitting the roof on both the NSE and BSE…Enjoy

Check out the earlier Blogs…the picture envisaged by me and and the gameplan of promoters is playing out quite to script 

Lloyds Steel @ Rs 14….. Promoters Stake now 57.75% from 17.61% on Conversion of Warrants at Rs 10

Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010

LLoyds Steel closes strong at Rs 12.91 despite going into Trade-to-Trade from tomorrow

Thursday, January 7th, 2010

Lloyds Steel @ Rs 9/10…Turnaround from Treachery !?

Thursday, December 24th, 2009

Cheers !
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