Markets are looking increasingly ominous and Sensex is likely to correct from 18000 + levels to be derated down to PE 14-16 range….sub 16000 possible in a few weeks…while I do remain bullish for the longer term I simply cannot ignore bearish macro indicators in the shorter term
William Shakespeare penned this warning as a part of his play ‘Julius Ceasar’…”Beware the Ides of March”…..today it is !…different RTC but I’m too issuing a caution !
This macro view is largely influenced by
Oil Prices likely to surge even further and cross US $ 150 a barrel as fears mount of ‘ No Fly Zone’ coming up in Libya,Saudi Arabia flares up even more ,Japan begins to count the tsunami losses and a growing voice against nuclear energy will increase the demand for Oil as Fuel worldwide
Inflation worries continue to challenge as prices of non oil commodities too show no sign of abating
Pressure on Interest Rates will remain and this year the rates in India will keep firming…they are kissing 10% levels already…so to take that extra risk to earn specific Equity Premium to return aggregates of 18% to 20% from Equities (anything lower is not worth it) may not be everyone’s cup of tea
Geo Political Tensions mounts in the MENA Region
Sovereign Defaults again loom ahead in Europe
FII Inflows are slowing down in 2011…on some days we actually see worrying outflows
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