Conducted a two days Equity Training Program past weekend at the BSE Training Institute…Interesting mix of participants….from SEBI,Exchanges,Broking Houses,Youngsters from Top Schools & Colleges,Top Management from leading Corporates Houses in Logistics and Oil & Gas,Mutual Fund Houses….

….Interesting Interaction…. fair spread of the fair sex too made it interesting to pit how a Man thinks against how a Woman thinks in situational plays…..a lot of good humour too….one young lady was worried her fiance will slap her because she invested in Suzlon at Rs 80 and it’s now below Rs 50 !…any chance it will recover to Rs 80,she inquired !…her relationship was at stake !….ran through Live from the Net how to quickly and fundamentally assess Reliance Industries at Rs 962….raised possible Sensex Valuations going forward to 2012…check updated pages on the Blog on the Sensex….USA,PIIGS,India,China…..covered the economic crisis and impacts and risks…..favourable positioning of India…..covered ,albeit briefly,80 + companies as Possible Portfolio Selections based on Risk Profiles of the Participants….How Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch think……why Investors behave irrationally in given situations….great fun    

…..was on my feet from 9.30 am to 6.30 pm both days covering 17 exclusive presentations and situational plays with the participants…enjoyed all of it….but had to call my masseur early morning  to ease away the tiredness…and actually slept in my tie !

Hope we can now take this Program all over India

Cheers !

Government got Gold with Coal India’s IPO last month…It was a Win Win Situation all around…as Issue Size was huge the Retail Segment was oversubscribed 2.3 times and also benefited from the rollover of the unsubscribed Employee Quota …so allotments were good…max 199 shares at Rs 245 less 5% discount

And Now we have the IPO of MOIL….attractive Pricing Band of Rs 340-Rs 375….However the Issue Size is Small and the Retail Segment will be oversubscribed 20 times…..therefore the allotment will not be generous

…Now a Retail Investor can apply upto Rs 2 lakhs…….Minimum application in MOIL is for 17 shares and in multiples of 17 thereafter…..On a max application of 527 shares in MOIL expect to be allotted just 25 shares…If Rs 375 is fixed as the issue Price then with a 5% discount the cost to Retail Investors will be Rs 356.25….Currently the Grey Market Premium is Rs 240…thus on allotment of 25 shares the profitability will be @ Rs 258.75 from Cost…that’s a Profit of @ Rs 6500…thats a 3.3% return in a month on a Application of Rs 197625….that’s very good and quite probable…infact fairly certain 

…but consider this…Instead of Primary market IPO of MOIL,consider Secondary Market Investment of @ Rs 2 lakhs in 3400 Shares of IFCI @ Rs 59…IFCI has slipped sharply in this correction and is available at Book Value this year and is to apply for a Banking Licence….If it moves up by just Rs 3 to Rs 62 ,the gains will be Rs 10200…There is a strong probability that it may move up much higher in December but there is also a probability that it may drop even below Rs 59 ! 

So what would you choose ?…a certain smaller gain with little or no chance of any Loss or a bigger probable gain with some probability of loss too in December 2010 ! 

Loss Aversion Psychological Tests conducted by D Kahneman and A Twersky are quite revealing…They gave these Options to a Group to choose from

A : A sure gain of US $ 250

or

B : 25% chance of a Gain of US $ 1000 and 75% chance of no gain at all

84% of the Group opted for A over B ( with the same expected payout but much greater risk)

They then reframed the Question and asked the same group to chose from

C : A sure Loss of US $ 750

or

D : A 75% chance of losing US $ 1000 and a 25% chance of losing nothing at all

73% preferred the gamble (with an expected loss of US $ 750) over the certain loss and opted for D

Stating the Question in terms of Gains and then in terms of Loss resulted in different choices

Loss Aversion implies that Individuals will prefer an uncertain gamble to a certain loss as long as the gamble has the possibility of no loss even though the expected value of the uncertain loss is higher than the certain loss

Interesting !

So which would you choose to Invest in ?

A : In the Primary Market IPO of MOIL with a certain lower gain

or

B : In the Secondary Market in IFCI with a high probabilty of a higher gain but also with a probability of a loss

My Choice would be B…what would be yours ?

One could do B and hedge it with A too…If B wins out in December it will be a Win Win situation all around

Making Choices in Equity is surely great Fun !

Cheers !

It’s been quite a weak week gone by….the Sensex shook 5% opening at 19841 last Monday but shaking in some shock down to 18955 on Friday…it has recovered to 19400 close as this week opens…..Looking beyond the Sensex shows that the shakedown has been more intense in the Mid cap and Low Cap Areas

IFCI has dropped to Rs 57 levels and IDBI Bank from Rs 200 ! to below Rs 160…both nearer Consolidated Book Value for this year….these price points offer lower risk Opportunities unless ofcourse scams unfold here too !

….what is also spooking the markets,apart from Korean War fears, is the CBI confirming a sense,long suspected by all of us really, that there have been huge sinster gameplans at work on the Exchanges…..collusions between Promoters,Bankers,Merchant Bankers,Politicians,Brokers,Fund Managers and  sadly even certain Print and Broadcasting Media…..to hype Companies and  rig up share prices to facilitate QIPs at high Prices with Fund Managers being paid off for participating in the QIPs…..it is alleged that even Exit Prices and Time Periods for this were pre decided….this would necessarily involve the need for Market Price manipulation…..where Loan has to be arranged it would involve Corruption…bribing those who can make decisions to deploy their Employers Huge Funds

CBI has made high level ‘Listed’ arrests…CEO of LIC Housing Finance….DGM of Bank of India and Independent Director of Central Bank of India,DGM of Punjab National Bank,Secretary (Investments) of LIC,CMD of listed Finance Intermediary, Money Matters Financial Services Ltd….the stink of corruption is polluting the markets….bribes being paid to Finance Heads of Listed Institutions through a Listed Financial Intermediary to faciliate Loans and QIP of Equity of hundreds of crores to Listed Corporates,especially Real Estate Companies….being ‘Listed’ seems to be the key….often manipulating the share price pays for the Corruption……..who suffers here ?….those primary market institutions and those secondary market  suckers who unknowing of this gameplan invested in the Share at an inflated price….if the situation is that of Loan Outstanding…it will probably remain outstanding till declared Non Perfoming and quietly written off after a few years !…and civil court cases takes years ! 

Maybe SEBI should report to the CBI !……..Because more often than not even this IPO High Obscene and Vulgar Pricing is a Scam of Sorts…though SEBI may argue it’s not their job to comment on Valuation and Pricing…and market forces will decide the success of the IPO…..but the truth is that most Investors are not educated enough to understand the Difference between Value and Price…and with no Protection now that the CCI Formula for Pricing the Premium gave the Promoters and Merchant Bankers will create Hype and milk Investors…we all know the Reliance Power IPO Debacle…probably only Mukesh Ambani did not invest in this !…Kishore Biyani’s Future Capital,Tanti’s Suzlon were nothing but IPO Loot Pricing….Adani Group is simply another story ! …of Satyam is now well known !

Market in the same Breath wants to continue the uptrend but also awaits baitedly another Scam being revealed !…..that’s causing the Volatility and daily Tug of War….Sentiment clearly has been hit and hurt and Uptrend Momentum affected….Valuations that had probably run a little ahead of Fundamentals are now reversing….this will provide Investment Opportunities like IFCI and IDBI Bank as observed above

Many Business Barons’ Cloak of Respectability needs to be uncovered by revealing How their Monies were and are being made…their network umbrella involves all   …politicians,brokers,bureaucrats,bankers,underworld,media,judges……..Corruption,Insider Trading,Outright Fradulent and Unethical Practices…..are all their Middle Names….my issue is nothing personal….simply that Investors need to be protected and the sanctity of markets be maintained !…..this can only be done by proactive and reactive quick and strong and fair regulation and strong punishment that acts as strong deterrent…….. it’s frustrating to see this unholy nexus first kill the Investors and then attend their Funeral too ! ……. no wonder only a tiny miniscule 2% of our National Savings are Invested in Equity…….but these CBI raids and arrests do show that what goes round does come round too !…..but sadly the deed is done and Investors have already been bled before strong action is taken !   

On the Positive side….Have Selective Conviction….Go for Growth Scrips at these significant declines

As if on Cue I’m getting calls to advise what to be Buying into now !…rather than advise on “should we be selling ?” 

Earlier this Month Coal India gave us some lovely Diwali Cheer….Next Month let’s hope MOIL will give us some Christmas Cheers !….Cheers !

India is well positioned….and in many major ways arguably in a completely different Queque…so don’t overestimate any mini meltdown or accompanying panic on global cues in our Sensex or Nifty….maybe new long positions may not be forthcoming but there should not be any serious shorts even though we see a 400 + correction in the Sensex today to 19500 levels

…..but the Ireland Bailout expected at @ US $ 100 Billion,mixed views on China’s economy  and the QE2 Measures by USA and right now the direct military provocation by North Korea against it’s neighbour South Korea clearly is spooking World markets and India is part of this….so we will be affected and pushed….but even if you argue we are in the same Queque,we are way behind….the upfront tormented Countries,like USA,Spain,Greece,Ireland,UK and Portugal and troubled hotspots like the Koreas will have a direct impact…being way behind,our Sensex will merely be pushed by the impact upfront…ofcourse we have our own issues like 2G Telecom Scam political imbroglio to deal with….but India is on the strong upmove for the next few decades…we are already living this…adds conviction to this belief…don’t let anyone shake you from this 

…..so don’t panic….two days ago I advised to stay away….no speculation and no trading…. and go smell the grass…..any significant correction will offer opportunities to buy cheaper for the long term….don’t get spooked by the increasing volatility…you have to live with this……Record FII Inflows actually lifted our Sensex back to 21k levels….a few billion dollar outflows coupled with World Economic and political tensions  will correct the Sensex….that is what is happening

….so don’t try second guessing where the Sensex will end today or tomorrow !…even the Sensex itself does not know !…..traders and speculators need to do this for they hold short or long positions to flip quickly…….Increasing Volatility makes this a risky and dangerous exercise best avoided till some stability or firm trend is seen  

Our Sensex ,currently at 19500 levels is headed towards 30000 in the next few years…but may revert back to a 16000-18000 range before continuing the march upwards

I’m observing a whole lots of specific stocks on my horizon also reacting….splendid….lower price levels will lower risk levels when bought into….will make my workshop on Equity Portfolio Structuring at BSE Training Institute this Friday and Saturday that much more fun…do come…blogged seperately on this earlier today   

Cheers !

Hey ! looking forward to seeing you at  my two days exclusive workshop this Friday and Saturday,November 26,27 at the BSE Training Institute to discuss Sensex and Stocks and lots more…Which,Why,When and Where headed….to borrow Heinz CEO William Johnson’s line ” Fish where there are Fish!”…come for the workshop

EQUITY PORTFOLIO STRUCTURING AND STOCK ANALYSIS…Integrating Intellect with Instinct 

If you not yet registered ,you can do so online at

http://www.bseindia.com/training/eq_portfolio.asp 

S Kumars has been providing a nice joyride to bulls in 2010…intensifying this last  month after being included in the F & O Segment too…even today it surged to Rs 96 from Rs 85 on Friday….it had begun the year 2010 at Rs 45 levels…and thus has doubled in eleven months in this calender year  

If you had invested in S Kumars at Rs 45/Rs 60/Rs 75 your Suit from S Kumar is now Free….maybe New Investors at Rs 96 can  go for their Shirts and Pants !…who knows maybe a Suit would be free for them too in 2011 !

Check out my series of hints in 2010 on S Kumar on my blog in chronological sequence from January 2010

Two Interesting Bulk Buys…Essar Oil by LIC at Rs 140 and S Kumars by Merrill Lynch at Rs 47.60

Monday, January 25th, 2010

S Kumars up 18% today at Rs 57…Interesting Retail Play in 2010

Thursday, March 18th, 2010

Two Rs 75 Scrips that yet look interesting…Sabero Organics & S Kumars Nationwide

Wednesday, June 23rd, 2010

Six Interesting Stocks in the Rs 70 to Rs 80 range………

Monday, October 11th, 2010

Delta Corp and S Kumars Nationwide providing bullish entertainment…..

Tuesday, October 26th, 2010

Cheers !

Expected the Sensex to correct mid 2010…instead fuelled by record FII Inflows it zoomed to 21000..and is now correcting and experiencing some Blues….when it went up,everyone was justifying the rise….now that it is correcting,everyone is justifying the correction !….so what does one do?….simply take a breather !…don’t break your head over Derivative and Trading and Investment Strategies…your Mind needs some rest….Go smell the Grass…Cheers

Copasetic….It’s an American Slang adjective that means “Everything’s ok” or “Completely satisfactory”

…came across it while browsing through the official website of the ongoing Asian Games 2010 at Guangzhou in China…check out http://www.gz2010.cn/10/1120/23/6LVISNVR0078002T.html 

…Everything copasetic at Guangzhou Asian Games Town

Copasetic does not feature in the English Oxford Dictionary….that gave me a hint that it could be of American source and origin…it is…check out wikipedia http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/copacetic …the etymology is not proven but originated probably in the US South…..from African Americans in the early 20th or late 19th century….Copasetic has only one meaning but could also be spelt as Copacetic

….I’m enjoying blogging…it’s copasetic at my end…..hope the context is in order…..Cheers !

I was intrigued why Arnab Goswami of ‘Times Now’ held up on screen the latest issue of Vinod Mehta’s Outlook magazine that has run a cover story on the Tapes that have the private telephone conversations between celebrated TV Anchor,also awarded the  Padma Shri, Barkha Dutt of NDTV and Power Broker and Lobbyist ( guised as a PR Consultant) Nira Radia…..he simply could not miss this opportunity to score over a rival channel NDTV and it’s celebrated Anchor,Barkha Dutt ! 

Click on http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIgOItvvsS8 to hear these revealing conversations…clearly establishing the nexus between the Media,the Power Brokers and the Politicians 

In late 2008 I had blogged post 26/11 on dangerous live coverage by the Media that included Barkha Dutt too, of the 26/11 terrorist strike in Mumbai…..she had a controversial reporting record too,especially her Kargil War coverage….revist this on

Mumbai Terrorist Seige : How even the Mainstream Indian TV Media Lost it’s Marbles !

Friday, December 5th, 2008 

Over Two Years ago too on November 4,2008 I had also blogged on the 2G Spectrum Scam…revist this at 

Conspiracy of Silence : The Officially sanctioned loot of Rs 60000 crs in the Telecom Sector ! …. November 4,2008

Two years later the past has clearly caught up with Barkha Dutt,Nira Radia and DMK’s A Raja as the 2G Spectrum Scam has been exposed by the CAG in full detail naming the beneficiaries….ADAG Companies,Videocon Group,Unitech Group and Swan Telecom among others….now the Supreme Court has even questioned our PM on his inaction and silence in this matter 

Yet I remain an Optimist….love being an Indian in India….always have

Cheers !  

Just heard on CNN Business,a delightfully candid take on exciting Asia markets by William Johnson,the CEO of Heinz, the world’s largest ketchup (tomato sauce) maker

“Fish where there are Fish !” says Johnson….I’m the Fish and am going to take this as a compliment……by 2013,20% of Heinz Revenues will be from Emerging markets…currently Heinz is shifting resources to emerging markets…”What evolved in the West is now evolving in the East” says Johnson….the world is becoming bi polar….”It’s great to be a CEO” in these times….learning to deal with governments and regulations in emerging countries is exciting….the consumerism with an exploding middle class is agggresively developing with prepared foods becoming part of daily diet…..one needs to localise products without compromising quality that made it successful in the West….. and have experienced local teams who know the pulse and ground realities

Have you tried Heinz Ketchup?…I have and am a convert…..am the fish that has got hooked on the Heinz bait !…..the taste and rich texture are simply outstanding….the ketchup’s got some depth…..you don’t argue with Quality….you Enjoy it……. Competitors Kissan and Maggi Brands are trying to ‘ketchup’ with Heinz but don’t even come close ….and try the new Imported Squeeze Bottle….fantastic….no spill when squeezing and no hint of ketchup on the round white cover nozzle after squeezing…..thankfully Heinz rethought their high pricing policy when they entered India a few years ago….it is now quite competititve….have introduced small sachets too….my club has moved from messy bottles to serves these sachets on every table….better quality….more hygenic…..cost saving as less wastage 

Those French Fries taste more heavenly with Heinz ketchup !…..secret must lie in the quality and consistency of the Tomatoes used

Cheers !