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A Lion’s eye on the Bulls and Bears

“In India, companies may fall sick, but promoters rarely do!”

Gaurav's Blog


October 2008

Keep the Faith….Have a Great Diwali Week and Pray that Samvat 2065 brings back the Smiles and Cheers to all of us

Wishing all of You and your Near and Dear ones a Great Diwali and a Prosperous New Year Ahead

Keep the Faith….Your Life is Ahead of You and Not Behind

I’m confident that Samvat 2065 ( the Hindu New Year) that begins today will be better and brighter than how Samvat 2064 shaped out to be in the end

And I take this blog opportunity to thank and reciprocate to each and every one of you who greeted on this Festive Occasion through Cards,SMS,Email,Phone Calls and Personal Vists

Priority Greetings to those who send or bore Gifts !…Just Jesting !

Our Market has Expired so please don’t expect any reciprocal Gift…and if you do receive a Gift from someone,and you recognise it as your’s send to us…yes we did rotate it !…and please remember this is Festive Season and any swearing must be directed only to the Umpires for missing calling the ‘No balls’ of the Australian Bowlers in the Cricket Test Match between India and Australia that began today in New Delhi 

Keep the Faith…It will rain again after this Drought  

Happy Diwali ?….rather it’s a Hapless Diwali…Even Diwali Gifts are being rotated more than before !

It’s certainly going to be a Hapless Diwali….Yet hang in there….Keep the Faith….Pray the next Samvat Year 2065 brings  back the Smiles and Cheers for all of us

A Diwali Gift given to a Broker was passed on by him to his CA…who switched visiting cards and passed it on to another…and within two days the same Gift came back to the Broker !

The World is certainly Small and Round !

This Rotation of Gifts is not  going to be an uncommon practice this Diwali !

So I will not be surprised  if my gifted Chocolates too come back to me !

Diamond Industry Devastated by Short Term US Dollar Rise

Last night,I caught up with the Chairman of one of India’s leading Diamond Companies….and he is worried about the further fate of the US $ inside a year from now !

The Diamond Industry is an export oriented and value added one…..Roughs are imported…polished and exported….The Imports were left unhedged but exports were hedged as Dollar at Rs 42/US $ was expected to weaken…Instead the US $ surged to Rs 50+/US $…Exports being hedged will not reap the benefit while Imports that were unhedged will see the cash flows impacted significantly as Diamond Houses will now have to pay at current rupee depreciated rates of  Rs 50/US $ 

Time to Change your Forex Team/Advisors guys !…With your losses they are anyway going to lose their jobs or their retainers !

Great Saturday Yesterday…caught up with the “Monk”,Robin Sharma

What a lovely Saturday…after hosting a lunch for overseas guests from the Securities Regulator of Stock Markets in Malaysia and Fiji,I caught up with Robin Sharma,one of the world’s top experts on Inspiring Leadership and the author of several bestsellers including “The Monk who sold his Ferrari” and “The Saint,the Surfer and the CEO”….as one close friend quipped when he saw the photo below ” So who’s the Saint and who’s the CEO ! ? “

Robin Sharma was here in Mumbai to launch his latest Book,”The Greatness Guide 2″

He says his best so far is “The Greatness Guide “….I told him that I like “Discover Your Destiny” the most

Some gems from him at the launch……

  • At my first public speaking engagement there were 23 people in the audience of whom 21 were my Family Members
  • If you have a pulse,you can be a leader and make a difference
  • First thing in the Morning after waking,I listen to the silence…light some candles…put on some music
  • My Children are my biggest inspiration

Thanks, Robin,  for the Autographs on your books and thanks darling daughter for the Photo.

Cheers !

Domino Capitulation of the SENSEX…The Countdown Continues 10..9..8..

Domino Capitulation !…Following Global Indices our  Sensex too plunged 11% to close below 9000 at 8701.07, down 1071 points

As I blog this,the Dow has opened 5 % down in New York….if the Dow closes weak today, you know the fate of our own Sensex on Monday !…”Dow”n with the Dow ! 

Alright so we’re facing reality…but for God Sake our Ministers and Bureacrats should stop from sickeningly and continuously reassuring all of us ,at every major single day fall , that there is nothing to worry and our fundamentals are in place etc, etc ! …they’ve been doing this from 21000 levels!…they’ve not lost monies !…but retail investors have lost big time in the government’s fasttrack and  over-zeal to develop the Primary and Secondary Markets

Irrational Exuberance was the outcome as the nexus of the media,unscrupulous merchant bankers,promoters and brokers hyped up the scene and played havoc with retail investors who were sucked in by obscene and vulgar Share Pricing in IPOs  and manipulations even in the Secondary and F & O markets

It’s no wonder then that even though our Savings rate is in a healthy 30% to 35% zone,the Equity Component of Investment Asset Allocation is in the lower single digits….the swings,the volatility,the capitulation is just too scary…and searching questions on the Potencies of Capitalism itself are being raised. 

It’s easy to blame authorities for your own irrationality but some of it is clearly justified as the Impotency of Exchange,Regulatory,Banking and Ministry authorities to curb malpractices and excesses in the system  has been exposed…or was it vested interests that were involved ?….Rampant Insider Trading and Misuse of Participatory Notes and Derivative Instruments have destroyed market credibility.

USA is already naked and is now undressing the World !…Hispanics who have sneaked into USA are now trying to sneak back to their Countries !

In such times when Cash is King ,Low Valuations are ignored and discarded… even if I offer you Milk at Rs 5/litre, which actually should sell for Rs 25/litre, you’ll not buy !…for fears that there is something wrong with the Milk or that you may get it at Rs 3/litre the next day !

That’s what’s happening to Stocks too…we are now in Distress Zone…the World Order is Changing…so there is clearly more Distress ahead.

So should you be looking for Investing Opportunities ? Look at it this way…Sound Stocks can’t fall to below Zero !…that’s Dead Value,not Distress Value ! read more

The World is becoming a Scarier place across all disciplines…Will the US $ become just Tissue paper !?

Let’s take a multi disciplinary view of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis…It’s Scary

Economics,Sociology,Politics,Sciences,Geography,History,Religon…take any Discipline and you’ll find  how Earth and it’s over six billion citizens are being impacted tragically  

I’m scared…for all of us…..I fear the next generation,my children, will have to pay too for the excesses of our generation and the previous ones

We have no say in Natural Disasters…but what about Manmade tragedies ?….. We are already witnessing the lethal dangers of Terrorism,Global Warming,Religious Bigotry,Pollution and Toxicity,Inequalities and Financial and Economic Earthquakes….the Scales are much larger than any in the past even than the Depression of 1929

So who do we Blame for all of this ?….Man’s greed to Create Wealth at Any Cost ? Capitalism ? Deregulation ?

If you target Capitalism,the Fingers point clearly at USA and England…’The Economist’ in it’s latest edition has a cover story titled ‘Capitalism at Bay’….It goes on to defend Capitalism warning that if the Confidence and Credit continue to dry up,a near-certain recession will become a depression,a calamity for everybody.

So if we believe in ‘Freedom at any Cost’,should we write of this financial and economic crisis as the ‘Cost of Freedom’ ?

Why should we agree to bailout well paid and well rewarded employees of Morgan instead of the Hundreds of Thousands of Hard Working Employees in General Motors ?  USA is asking this question

The fact is that if you actually take the pain to study USA’s Capitalism History,you will find the excesses in their system that have caused calamities every few decades

In a Nutshell USA has always been a spendthrift nation,opting to fund needs through printing more and more dollars,rather than reduce Government grants or raise Taxes.It had the cushion of Gold Reserves to do so…no longer as Value of  Dollar Notes in World Circulation far outstrips the Gold Reserves.As of September 30,2008,The US Government disclosed that the Deficit is US $ 455 Billion…it will rise dramatically as bail-out amounts are added.

The US $ is going to be Tissue Paper…It’s simply propped up because Oil Trade is yet in Dollars and US is bullying the world to keep it so…It took action overtly and covertly against those who tried non dollar Oil trade…Saddam Hussein in Iraq,Chavez in Venezuela… and is now threatening Iran who plans to open a Non Dollar Oil Trading Exchange….The moment Oil Trade begins in Non US Dollar Currency,Countries will realise that they do not need to stockpile US Dollars to buy Oil…they will swamp the market with US Dollars…USA’s only prowess now is military and it may use it to protect the US $…It’s already printed more Dollars than the value of Gold it had stockpiled against supply of arms and ammunition from Countries who participated in the World Wars initially…USA is a consumption based economy and not a Savings one like Asian Giants…USA spends US $ 107 for every US $ 100 it earns !…Ask the Fed Governor and even he will tell you he does not know the quantity of US $ Currency circulating or M3 in the World   read more

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