The WTO Talks at Geneva collapsed yesterday after nine days of deliberations…These talks were part of the DOHA Round that originated years ago…….the stalemate continues as USA refuses to budge on quantum of it’s agricultural subsidies to it’s farmers….It agreed to a cap of US $ 15 billion every year,but this makes little sense as the total subsidies were US $ 7 billion last year…so where is the cut ?

India on the other had refused to open out it’s auto and food markets and absolutely rightly so to protect the livelihood of millions of workers and farmers and the huge Investments flowing into India …USA wants that India should protect only 50% of it’s Textile and Auto sectors and it wants to see a 40% leap in Imports into India…….It cares two bits about India’s security and protective Measures in the Safety Mechanism framework….Just imagine the horrendous plight of millions of India’s farmers if India’s Food Imports leap crazily from the heavily subsidised farmers in USA ! 

USA is desperate to reduce it’s deficit and save it’s Dollar from weakening further….It’s bullying tactics may continue but with the World’s Economic Order Changing the World  no longer fears the Washington consensus 

USA should now accept and concede that WTO does not stand for We’ll Take Over….It needs to be transperant and fair when it negotiates and stop taking U Turns in it’s stances. 

I just love reading write ups in ‘The Economist’…for two reasons really….For One,they always present a comprehensive yet concise and rational viewpoint on Issues and secondly I learn a lot of words

Take this write up for instance in their July 26,2008 edition on Pages 20 and 22  where ‘The Economist’ agrees on Morgan Tsvangirai,Opposition Leader agreeing to talk with current and controversial  Head of Zimbabwe,Robert Mugabe to try and bring about normalcy in Zimbabwe….Inflation runs at Millions of Percent and state sponsored violence has seen hundreds being killed and thousands been tortured and jailed  

I learnt two words…

‘Filibuster’…means Prolonged Speech which obstructs progress in a law making assembly…It’s used in context to  a suggestion that Tsvangirai should walk away from the Talk if Mugabe cheats and filibusters

‘Pusillanimous’…means Lacking Courage and in the article refers to many African nations who had not raised a stink on Mugabe’s terror regime but may be turning against him now but yet remain pusillanimous 

Both Iron Ore Producers,Sandur Manganese and Sesa Goa have turned in mind boggling Q1 Results…yet Mr S Y Ghorpade, Chairman &  Managing Director of Sandur says that the Rising Prices of Iron Ore may not sustain  while Mr P K Mukherjee,Managing Director of Sesa Goa says the record US $ 140/T FOB Mangalore is indicative of things to come and he expects a fantastic year

Sandur is on down circuit  by 5% at Rs 1308.75 today.It notched Rs 64.31 Net on an Equity of Rs 8.75 crs (FV Rs 10) giving a record unannualised EPS of Rs 73.36…..Notwithstanding caution given by Mr Ghorpade,Sandur should record an EPS of close to Rs 300 this year…this gives a multiple of just over 4

On Sesa Goa I have commented on it several times past few days,even yesterday…check out earlier blogs…It at Rs 3380 Cum 1:1 Bonus and Cum 10:1 Sub Division right now….goes X on August 8,2008 and must be in your portfolio  

Calcined Petroleum Coke Producers,Rain Commodities and Goa Carbon are on a bull run as prices of CPC reach new highs of US $ 700/t…..Both Companies are available at just Two Forward Multiple for Current Year as they should register an EPS of Rs 100 and Rs 50 respectively for FY 09…A stupendous first quarter points to exciting times ahead for CPC Producers….Despite a good run up already,yet looks like a clear Double from here 

Hey ! what do you know ! The British Broadcasting Watchdog has fined BBC for ‘faking’ competition winners…It seems in 2005/6 many radio shows on BBC ran live competitions inviting listeners to participate by calling in…However the winner was predecided and there was no chance of anycaller winning at all…many of the staff were positioned as callers and the whole call in was actually prerecorded

 Let me  get you onto a secret ! It happens here in India too !….FM Broadcasters run daily live contests and believe me a friend of mine called me to say his wife’s won Rs 10000 on one of these ‘live’ contests which was yet to air!….she was approached by a RJ friend and coached to respond in a particular manner to questions and she would get,as in ‘win’, Rs 10000 !

So is anybody surprised !

Check out my earlier Blog on Sesa Goa….It looks a great buy and is available till Thursday,August 7,2008 Cum Bonus 1:1 and Cum Sub Division 10:1…..Today’s closing of Rs 3330 gives a theoretical XB/XS price of Rs 167

For every  One Share of Face Value of Rs 10 you will buy till August 7,2008 your demat account will ultimately  reflect 20 Shares of Face Value Rs 1 after the Bonus and Splt is applied…the record date is August 18,2008   

With a fantastic performance expected in the next two years showing Forward P/Es for FY 09 and FY 10 at under 5 and under 2 respectively it makes sense to have Sesa Goa in your portfolio….Buying it CB/CS may give you an immediate gain XB/XS as I expect actual XB/XS price to open over theoretical price

I’ve given it as a SS 1 Scriptech Stock Select and as a  Scriptech Scramble Communication last week to my clients with detailed reasons why to buy….SS 1 stands for ‘Scriptech Spectacular’ and is at the top of our four types of  Categorisation indicating fast returns….the others being SS 2 (Scriptech Sparkle…returns over a year),SS 3( Scriptech Sapling for Multibaggers) and SS 4 ( Scriptech Shield for defensive stocks)  

RNRL surged over 11% today from a close of below Rs 90 yesterday to close at above Rs 100 today……It was Rs 74 a week ago just before the Trust Vote on the Nuclear Deal in Parliament

BSE Volumes today were 3.88 crore shares (Rs 375 crores) which interestingly is more than One crore shares from the last two week’s daily average,before today, of 2.73 crore shares

Big Play seems to be again on….something strong brewing…something strong coming…could it be related to the Ongoing Day to Day Hearing in the High Court of the RIL v/s RNRL Case where RIL has violated a 2005 agreement to supply gas to RNRL at a price of US $ 2.34/mmbtu ?

Interestingly RNRL historic 52 week High and Low on BSE shows that a year ago on August 1,2007 it was at a low of Rs 41….it peaked a closing on January 9,2008 at Rs 250 before sliding back to Rs 60 levels from where it has again risen  

We always knew the Printed News Editions really sold and survived on on the 4 ‘Cs’…Crime,Cinema,Cricket and Classifieds

Twiddling a little Thumb late afternoon I thought I would check out todays Mid-day Afternoon Edition

It’s in two sections…each has it’s Own Mid-day Mate…..Main Section has 28 pages and a rough estimate shows Six pages of Advertisments (21%), Four  pages of Crime  Content (14%), Seven Pages of Cinema Content (25%), Six Pages of Sports Coverage (21%),of which over 60% is on Cricket…rest Five pages contain 4 pages of News and One Page of Miscellaneous Content

The Second Section contains 40 pages,nearly all of it is Classifieds( two pages devoted to Friendship and Massage Services) and Film and Job advertisements…and some of it contains an agony aunt column and astrological forecasts

I paid Rs 3 for all of this.I’m going to pay Rs 3 tomorrow too.

Try a similar study of even the leading morning Newspapers and you’ll come out with more or less similar category content breakup  

I’ve got three Masters….my wife and my two kids, an eighteen year old son and a soon to be thirteen daughter

My Sensitive Eighteen Year old Son yet has to collect his College ID in the Second month of the New Year… his day begins after Noon….. and the Only time he cuddles up is when he wants the Car or his Pocket Money….. His excuse for Sleeping like Kumbhkarna… “Dad, as you soulfully say, ”Hold on to your Dreams !” I need to continue sleeping to do this”

It took Aamir Khan’s new movie, “Jaane tu…ne janne na” to reveal to me how this India’s Golden young Generation “Chill”…….Freedom without Responsibility, I say…..How to get your grown up son to get responsible ?….I tell him he’ll get the car sometimes and his pocket money only if he produces the College ID Card !…… It’s two weeks since he’s asked for Money… as for the Car, he takes his chances !…. He’s just started his articles towards CA Studies.. and I must confess he passed his CPT and got into a top CA Firm without my help…so there’s yet some hope for him…he’s into guitaring too past few years encouraged by “Vayu’s” lead guitarist… over six foot tall and with some strength… kneads my spine brilliantly to destress me… nothing is free… he gets the car that day ! I should be forewarned ! that there’s a lot of kneading going on these days!  

Ah ! And my soon to be thirteen daughter ? she’s so hyper active… she feels that on a Sunday by 9 am if we have not done something the day is wasted ! ….. she’s wholesale into Karate (Should get her Black Belt this December), Football (School Team GoalKeeper), Gymnastics (Two Hours of Rigid Practise daily )…. but the reason I write about her on my blog is that I’ve been sitting with her for five to six hours every night till nearly 2 am  past two nights to chase out last minute demons she suddenly showed when attacking her Science and Social Studies Books… her first term exams are on… She’s a Honours student… yet it’s been a revelation…she overestimated her ability to cope with last day studying… and her determined attitude did not allow her to study by exception… in that she did not want to leave out anything…..so here I was !… Re-learning Density, Mass and Volume and how to measure Irregular Solids and that it was Sher Shah Suri who literally “coined” the term “Rupee” and that Akbar had over 300 wives but discouraged “Polygamy”! and that Amazon Jungle has One third of the World’s trees and is responsible for half of the Oxygen in the Air… if they die .. we die !…… This Bonding cannot be had for the Love of Money !… so profusely thankful is she that I’ve received more hugs in the past two nights than in the past two months… Oh! and when I scolded her for leaving studying for Exams to the last miniute she cheekily tells me “Look at it this way Dad !I won’t bother you for the next six months now!”  

Want to experience Divinity ?… get your kids to sleep on top of you !

Dr Y Venugopal Reddy, Governor, RBI, today presented the First Quarter Review of Annual Statement on Monetary Policy for the Year 2008-09

http://rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=18886

RBI has raised the repo rate by 0.5% to 9% and the Cash Reserve Ratio by 0.25% to 9% to curb Inlation

This was inevitable with Inflation trying to cross 12%…. Expect some more rate hikes in August too!

But what struck me a little amusing is this…….

The Reality  is that Inflation is because of the runaway spiral in Commodity Prices, notable that of Crude Oil… Oil raced away from US $ 70 in Feb 2008 to double past US $ 140 a few weeks ago

The Reality  is also that RBI has simply no control on Inflation as it has no control on Oil prices!….. It can merely tinker with rates to match Inflation… This is has done at the cost of Growth rates

The Reality is also that Mr Reddy had to apologise to the Media for  wrongly blaming it for leaking out the Policy earlier than he had announced It !…. Their inquiry showed that the culprit was the Web Manager who released the soft copy half an hour earlier than Noon when he made the Announcement

The Reality is that neither is RBI in control of Inflation nor is it in Control of Secured Release of Important Information… the leak gives an unfair advantage to the reader and with the Sensex closing 558 points lower today there indeed was some opportunity there to be exploited

As always, the common man will get the short drift…. not only has he got to combat High Inflation… but also that he finds himself in an unreal situation which may last a year atleast where the real rate of Interest on his Deposits is negative…. in that he gets 7.5% -9.6% (Upward hike likely) on his Deposits and just 3.5% on his Savings Account while Inflation is expected to remain in double digits till next year… If he has to Borrow, the bank may not extend credit as it has been reigned in by RBI who has set even tighter limits for banks advances… even if the bank did lend the Interest rate would be leaning towards 18%….. The Prime Lending rate is 13.25% and a “BBB” rated Corporate would have to bear a 16% to 17% Interest rate…. and the Common Man’s rating is lower than “BBB”

The Common Man seems to have no option really…the only rational choice in his mind would be to protect the Principle with a Fixed Deposit in a Good Bank even if the real rate is negative… Cash is non productive ….. and as for Equity, it has slashed and chopped off so much wealth this year that even wild horses would not drag the Common Man back to Equity

And here lies the Irony !…… Equity alone over a longer time frame of atleast three years would offer the best bet to grow wealth,beating Inflation as wellas negative real rates from Bank Deposits…… Alas! there is a scarcity of all the “Cs”…. of credibility, confidence, conviction and contrarion thought….. Consequently “C”ash will not come into Equity… in fact may move out of it!