A Lion’s eye on the Bulls and Bears

“In India, companies may fall sick, but promoters rarely do!”

Gaurav's Blog


Month: July 2008

USA thinks WTO stands for We’ll Take Over !

The WTO Talks at Geneva collapsed yesterday after nine days of deliberations…These talks were part of the DOHA Round that originated years ago…….the stalemate continues as USA refuses to budge on quantum of it’s agricultural subsidies to it’s farmers….It agreed to a cap of US $ 15 billion every year,but this makes little sense as the total subsidies were US $ 7 billion last year…so where is the cut ?

India on the other had refused to open out it’s auto and food markets and absolutely rightly so to protect the livelihood of millions of workers and farmers and the huge Investments flowing into India …USA wants that India should protect only 50% of it’s Textile and Auto sectors and it wants to see a 40% leap in Imports into India…….It cares two bits about India’s security and protective Measures in the Safety Mechanism framework….Just imagine the horrendous plight of millions of India’s farmers if India’s Food Imports leap crazily from the heavily subsidised farmers in USA ! 

USA is desperate to reduce it’s deficit and save it’s Dollar from weakening further….It’s bullying tactics may continue but with the World’s Economic Order Changing the World  no longer fears the Washington consensus 

USA should now accept and concede that WTO does not stand for We’ll Take Over….It needs to be transperant and fair when it negotiates and stop taking U Turns in it’s stances. 

Learnt ‘Filibuster’ and ‘Pusillanimous’ whilst reading on Mugabe of Zimbabwe

I just love reading write ups in ‘The Economist’…for two reasons really….For One,they always present a comprehensive yet concise and rational viewpoint on Issues and secondly I learn a lot of words

Take this write up for instance in their July 26,2008 edition on Pages 20 and 22  where ‘The Economist’ agrees on Morgan Tsvangirai,Opposition Leader agreeing to talk with current and controversial  Head of Zimbabwe,Robert Mugabe to try and bring about normalcy in Zimbabwe….Inflation runs at Millions of Percent and state sponsored violence has seen hundreds being killed and thousands been tortured and jailed  

I learnt two words…

‘Filibuster’…means Prolonged Speech which obstructs progress in a law making assembly…It’s used in context to  a suggestion that Tsvangirai should walk away from the Talk if Mugabe cheats and filibusters

‘Pusillanimous’…means Lacking Courage and in the article refers to many African nations who had not raised a stink on Mugabe’s terror regime but may be turning against him now but yet remain pusillanimous 

Fantastic Q1 FY 09 for Iron Ore Companies Sandur Manganese and Sesa Goa

Both Iron Ore Producers,Sandur Manganese and Sesa Goa have turned in mind boggling Q1 Results…yet Mr S Y Ghorpade, Chairman &  Managing Director of Sandur says that the Rising Prices of Iron Ore may not sustain  while Mr P K Mukherjee,Managing Director of Sesa Goa says the record US $ 140/T FOB Mangalore is indicative of things to come and he expects a fantastic year

Sandur is on down circuit  by 5% at Rs 1308.75 today.It notched Rs 64.31 Net on an Equity of Rs 8.75 crs (FV Rs 10) giving a record unannualised EPS of Rs 73.36…..Notwithstanding caution given by Mr Ghorpade,Sandur should record an EPS of close to Rs 300 this year…this gives a multiple of just over 4

On Sesa Goa I have commented on it several times past few days,even yesterday…check out earlier blogs…It at Rs 3380 Cum 1:1 Bonus and Cum 10:1 Sub Division right now….goes X on August 8,2008 and must be in your portfolio  

Rain Commodities @ Rs 220 and Goa Carbon @ Rs 116 on a bull run

Calcined Petroleum Coke Producers,Rain Commodities and Goa Carbon are on a bull run as prices of CPC reach new highs of US $ 700/t…..Both Companies are available at just Two Forward Multiple for Current Year as they should register an EPS of Rs 100 and Rs 50 respectively for FY 09…A stupendous first quarter points to exciting times ahead for CPC Producers….Despite a good run up already,yet looks like a clear Double from here 

BBC Fined Stg Pounds 400000 for ‘faking’ Competition Winners !…It happens in India too!

Hey ! what do you know ! The British Broadcasting Watchdog has fined BBC for ‘faking’ competition winners…It seems in 2005/6 many radio shows on BBC ran live competitions inviting listeners to participate by calling in…However the winner was predecided and there was no chance of anycaller winning at all…many of the staff were positioned as callers and the whole call in was actually prerecorded

 Let me  get you onto a secret ! It happens here in India too !….FM Broadcasters run daily live contests and believe me a friend of mine called me to say his wife’s won Rs 10000 on one of these ‘live’ contests which was yet to air!….she was approached by a RJ friend and coached to respond in a particular manner to questions and she would get,as in ‘win’, Rs 10000 !

So is anybody surprised !

Go ‘Sesa’ Goa at Rs 3330 CB/CS…goes XB/XS on August 8,2008

Check out my earlier Blog on Sesa Goa….It looks a great buy and is available till Thursday,August 7,2008 Cum Bonus 1:1 and Cum Sub Division 10:1…..Today’s closing of Rs 3330 gives a theoretical XB/XS price of Rs 167

For every  One Share of Face Value of Rs 10 you will buy till August 7,2008 your demat account will ultimately  reflect 20 Shares of Face Value Rs 1 after the Bonus and Splt is applied…the record date is August 18,2008   

With a fantastic performance expected in the next two years showing Forward P/Es for FY 09 and FY 10 at under 5 and under 2 respectively it makes sense to have Sesa Goa in your portfolio….Buying it CB/CS may give you an immediate gain XB/XS as I expect actual XB/XS price to open over theoretical price

I’ve given it as a SS 1 Scriptech Stock Select and as a  Scriptech Scramble Communication last week to my clients with detailed reasons why to buy….SS 1 stands for ‘Scriptech Spectacular’ and is at the top of our four types of  Categorisation indicating fast returns….the others being SS 2 (Scriptech Sparkle…returns over a year),SS 3( Scriptech Sapling for Multibaggers) and SS 4 ( Scriptech Shield for defensive stocks)  

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