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A Lion’s eye on the Bulls and Bears

“In India, companies may fall sick, but promoters rarely do!”

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June 1, 2009

Thanks Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh !….Bengaluru Equity Workshop Concludes Well

Returned late night from Bengaluru at 1 am in the morning as Flight was delayed after delivering a two day Equity Workshop at the weekend…the  eight in a series for a Broking House…It was pouring as we drove to the New Airport,50 + kms away from the City…but we had a Mad Max Driver who drove as if his life,and ours !, depended on it ! weaving at 100 kmph through stranded cars in the fast flooding roads ! and despite incessant rain whipping the windscreen…paid a ridiculous Rs 260 User Fee to access the Airport

Had gone earlier on Thursday,to spend two days at a friend’s 75 acre farm, 20 kms outside Bengaluru,on the fringe of the Bannnerghata Wildlife Park…what a great break !…could hear the silence !…had friend’s three dogs ( Small Datschund and Large Dalmatians!) all over me…Elephants and Monkeys destroy crops and so commercial farming becomes a tedious affair …tried to spot a Gharial in one of his four water harvested ponds on the farm…it had probably slipped in from the forest through the canals….relaxed company , great organic food,fresh vegetables,fresh mangoes,fresh coconut water,fresh jackfruit and fresh rains !…too short a break,though !

Then switched to workshop mode on Saturday Morning….It was truly satisfying…When I threw the House open  for any questions on Sunday ,prompt came the first one “When will you come back to Bengaluru for your next workshop !?….Thanks! Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh ! for some great participation

We had some fun discussing Valuations of Reliance Industries,Satyam and Reliance Power and even Jaiprakash Hydro among others companies…and am glad you’ll were genuine in your reactions when we played the Integrity,Insider Trading and Irrational Behaviour Scenarios

Now you know how Mumbai,Vadodora and Rajkot got excited  on Reliance Ind Valuations in March and April 2009  at Rs 1100 to Rs 1300 !…maybe I should have come to Bengaluru first !

So all of you know what is the appropriate Valuation Basis to use for Satyam…and how you can make some money on it ,based on an event based risk in June 2009 !

You are now acquainted with the Valuation Risks of Reliance Power at Rs 180 and Jai Prakash Hydro at Rs 70 !

Shanteeth,I hope we do get to 23000 + on the Sensex in 2009 itself, as you aggressively suggested at the outset of the workshop based on Technicals…though  I showed you why it looks highly improbable on Fundamentals !…glad you loved the Book I gave you “Screw it ! Just Do it! ” by Richard Branson…now pass it on so someone else enjoys it too ! read more

E ! God…Does this Advice make any sense !..Buy at 677 with Target at 550… or…. Buy at 136 with target at 126 !

Just happened to glance at a latest report that advised several midcap recommendations…It’s from  a leading Broking House  ( Yes,it had an IPO in 2007 and is listed )

Sample this……

Buy Rallis at Rs 677 with a Target Price of Rs 550 !


Buy Sterlite Technologies at Rs 136 with a Target Price of Rs 126 !


No Wonder ! Investors Lose Money when they Blindly Follow Advice ! …Don’t blame the Broking House ! After all they have warned you !…that their Target :Price is lower than the Buying Price !…They need you to Buy because they need the Brokerage ! 

Indians being targeted in Australia….Racism ? Economics ! ?

I daresay,with India growing at 6% + while the world’s leading economies are in recession,there is a growing ‘Protectionist’ sentiment led by even USA’s President Obama,who cries “Buy American!”

In this context, the growing incidents of Indians being physically assaulted in Australia is more a ‘giving vent’ by a few misguided Australians to an increasing  frustrated and a prejudiced mindset that simply is unable to accept this reality of India’s increasing Economic Prosperity and their own Economic Deprivation that’s leading to their Depravity

The perception is that the natives are losing jobs…and jobs that are currently being taken up by Non Australians,especially Indians would have been available for Australians had these guys not have migrated or come into Australia

But Why attack Indian Students !?…Over 90000 Indian Students are actually paying Top Dollar to Australian Universities and Educational Institutions and actually boosting Australia’s Economy….In fact,Australian Representatives of these Institutions are 24/7 passionately wooing Indian Students to study in Australia…It’s lucrative for them

A few Years ago,Australia’s ex PM,John Howard had shown his aggressive and narrow mindset when he had sent out a strong warning to all those who had migrated or wished to migrate to Australia to become Australian in every sense….or just go back to where they come from…He needs to be reminded that they too are not the Original Inhabitants of the Australian Continent…and that they had not come out of their own choice too over 200 years ago from United Kingdom!

Sadly,John Howard finds support in many Australians who think the way he does….they have a closed view of what constitutes ‘Patriotism’……Howard’s message was a veiled threat and had done some damage to the general acceptance that Australia is a progressively democratic nation and is a melting pot of many cultures

And Sadly,as India gets more and more economically prosperous,more and more of such intolerant mindsets will give vent to their feelings…some violently.

I daresay the last India v/s Australia Cricket Series in Australia,is a nasty case in point…the Sydney Test was in India’s grip…Unsporting Umpires and Australian Cricket Players,desperate not to lose led to an Australian Victory…in fact so intense was this behaviour that the Australian PM,Kevin Rudd,had to warn the Australian Captain,Pointing to play the game in the true sporting spirit…The Tour was on the verge of being called off.    read more

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